Australia 10Y Yield Holds Near 4-Month Low

2026-06-25 03:15 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held around 4.7%, sitting near a four-month low, as falling oil prices and narrowing yield spreads driven by a hawkish US policy outlook outweighed a rebound in domestic employment data.

The economy added 40,300 jobs in May, rebounding from a revised decline of 40,600 in April and above market forecasts for a 30,000 increase, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, as expected.

The latest jobs data followed Wednesday’s mixed inflation figures, which left markets split on another rate hike, priced at around 50% by year-end.

Meanwhile, mounting wagers on US interest rate hikes have helped Australian bonds outperform Treasuries, shrinking the Aussie's yield premium.

Last week, the Fed signaled growing support for tighter monetary policy, with Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirming his commitment to restoring price stability.

Progress in US-Iran peace talks have also pushed oil prices back to pre-conflict levels and eased inflation concerns.



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Australia 10Y Yield Holds Near 4-Month Low
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held around 4.7%, sitting near a four-month low, as falling oil prices and narrowing yield spreads driven by a hawkish US policy outlook outweighed a rebound in domestic employment data. The economy added 40,300 jobs in May, rebounding from a revised decline of 40,600 in April and above market forecasts for a 30,000 increase, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, as expected. The latest jobs data followed Wednesday’s mixed inflation figures, which left markets split on another rate hike, priced at around 50% by year-end. Meanwhile, mounting wagers on US interest rate hikes have helped Australian bonds outperform Treasuries, shrinking the Aussie's yield premium. Last week, the Fed signaled growing support for tighter monetary policy, with Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirming his commitment to restoring price stability. Progress in US-Iran peace talks have also pushed oil prices back to pre-conflict levels and eased inflation concerns.
2026-06-25
Australia 10Y Yield Trades Near Multi-Month Lows
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.8%, near four-month lows after a mixed inflation report did little to shift expectations for further interest rate hikes. Headline consumer prices fell 0.7% in May from the previous month, pulling annual inflation down to 4.0% from 4.2% and marking the slowest pace in three months. However, underlying price pressures remained firm, with the trimmed mean inflation rising 0.4% on the month, above forecasts, lifting the annual core rate to 3.6%. The mixed inflation data has left markets divided, pricing roughly 50% odds of another rate hike, with any move seen more likely later in the year rather than at the August meeting. Meanwhile, progress in ongoing US-Iran peace talks and increased shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz helped ease inflation concerns. The hawkish outlook for US interest rates has also helped Australian bonds outperform Treasuries, adding downside on Aussie's yield premium.
2026-06-24
Australia 10Y Yield Trades Near 15-Week Lows
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.8%, trading near fifteen-week lows as signs of progress in ongoing US-Iran peace talks helped ease inflation concerns, while caution built ahead of domestic inflation and jobs data this week that could indicate whether the Reserve Bank has finished raising rates. Headline inflation is expected to pick up to 4.4% in May from 4.2% from a month earlier, while core measure likely edged up to 3.5% from 3.4%, both well above the central bank’s target. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is expected to speak about the inflation outlook after the CPI release. For the jobs data, a rise of 25,000 net jobs for May is expected, while the unemployment rate likely fell to 4.4% after hitting a 4 1/2 -year high of 4.5% last month. Meanwhile, the US and Iran recently agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, and now Washington issued Tehran a license to sell oil on international markets, fueling expectations of a faster recovery in global supply.
2026-06-22