Australia 10Y Yield Hovers Near 14-1/2-Year High

2026-03-11 03:15 By Judith Sib-at 1 min. read

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.95% but remained near its highest level since July 2011, amid growing expectations of a rate hike next week.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said Tuesday that the surge in oil prices could push inflation above the central bank’s 4.2% forecast, warning that the Middle East war may force the RBA to raise interest rates within days.

His remarks reinforced signals from Governor Michele Bullock, who said last week there is a “live” chance of an increase, amid concerns that a prolonged spike in oil prices could make it harder to bring inflation under control.

Most economists now expect the RBA to deliver a 25 bps hike next week, followed by another move in May to 4.35%, which would mark the highest level since February 2025.

Markets are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate increase next week, up from below 30% earlier this week.

Adding to the case for a hike, inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in March, the highest since July 2023.



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Australia 10Y Yield Hovers Near 14-1/2-Year High
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.95% but remained near its highest level since July 2011, amid growing expectations of a rate hike next week. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said Tuesday that the surge in oil prices could push inflation above the central bank’s 4.2% forecast, warning that the Middle East war may force the RBA to raise interest rates within days. His remarks reinforced signals from Governor Michele Bullock, who said last week there is a “live” chance of an increase, amid concerns that a prolonged spike in oil prices could make it harder to bring inflation under control. Most economists now expect the RBA to deliver a 25 bps hike next week, followed by another move in May to 4.35%, which would mark the highest level since February 2025. Markets are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate increase next week, up from below 30% earlier this week. Adding to the case for a hike, inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in March, the highest since July 2023.
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Australia 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 5.00%, the highest since July 2011. Over the past 4 weeks, Australia 10Y Bond Yield gained 15.70 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 58.00 basis points.
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Australia 10Y Yield Climbs to Highest Level Since 2011
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield hovered above 4.80%, remaining close to its highest level since July 2011, as the ongoing war in the Middle East stoked inflation fears. The conflict, now entering its second week, has prompted several major oil producers in the region to cut output, pushing energy prices sharply higher. This has raised concerns that inflation could accelerate, which may force central banks to adopt a more hawkish policy stance. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said last week that the central bank is “very alert” to the conflict’s potential impact on inflation expectations and is ready to hike rates if necessary. Traders currently assign roughly a 30% probability to a rate hike later this month and are fully pricing in a move by May, as the labor market remains tight and inflationary pressures persist.
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