The Reserve Bank of Australia's policy rate stands at 4.60%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 4.80% at the 3 November 2026 decision, 20 basis points above the current level. Markets assign a 0% probability to a cut, 18% to no change and 82% to a hike, with 4.85% the single most likely outcome at 82%.
Trading Economics Implied Policy Rates are measures of how financial markets price future central bank policy decisions. Trading Economics derives market-implied forward curves by combining interest rate futures prices, tied to representative short-term benchmark rates, with scheduled decision dates from its economic calendar. The difference between the implied rate following a policy meeting and the prevailing policy rate reflects the expected basis-point move. Based on this expected change, the market-implied probability of rate adjustments are derived for each upcoming central bank meetings.