Australia Export Prices Ease Sharply

Australia's export prices increased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, marking a sharp slowdown from the one-year high of 3.2% in Q4 2025. The deceleration was driven primarily by a 5% drop in metalliferous ores and metal scrap, reflecting seasonally weaker Chinese demand for iron ore ahead of the Lunar New Year, as well as elevated stockpiles at Chinese ports. Moreover, gas prices, natural and manufactured, plunged 8.2%, as oil-linked contracts tracked lower crude oil prices during the December quarter. In contrast, non-monetary gold prices surged 10.8%, underpinned by sustained safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Coal, coke and briquettes also climbed 5.3%, supported by higher metallurgical coal prices as weather-related disruptions constrained Australian supply. Lastly, crude fertilisers surged 58.3%, driven by robust global demand for lithium, critical to battery and electric vehicle production, alongside low Chinese inventory levels.

Australia’s export prices increased by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, recovering from a 0.9% decline in Q3, marking the first increase in three quarters, and the fastest pace in a year. The main contributors to the rebound were gold, non-monetary (+19.5%), reflecting ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty; metalliferous ores and metal scrap (+2.6%), driven by improved market sentiment this quarter, with iron ore demand improving due to seasonal restocking in China; and coal, coke and briquettes (+3.6%), supported by rising metallurgical coal prices. Offsetting these increases were gas, natural & manufactured (-5.2%), boosted by falls in petroleum gases, as oil-indexed contracts followed lower crude oil prices during Q3 2025; and petroleum and petroleum products (-6.7%), underpinned by production hikes by OPEC+ nations earlier in 2025. Through the year to Q4, export prices dropped by 0.3%, after edging up a 0.1% in Q3.

Australia's export prices dropped by 0.9% qoq in Q3 2025, following a 4.5% decline in Q2 and marking the 2nd decrease this year. The main contributors to the contraction were gas, natural & manufactured (-5.2%), driven by falls in petroleum gas prices as oil-indexed contracts followed lower crude oil prices during the June quarter. Coal, coke, and briquettes (-1.5%) also declined, weighed down by falling metallurgical coal prices, reflecting reduced demand stemming from China’s policy measures to curb unsustainable steel production. Declines were also recorded in metalliferous ores and metal scrap (-0.5%), due to lower alumina and bauxite prices as supply tightness eased this quarter. Offsetting these decreases were gold, non-monetary (+3.2%), reflecting sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset; and meat and meat preparations (+2.1%), boosted by strong demand for Australian beef and sheep meat. Through the year to Q3, export prices edged up by 0.1%, reversing a 3.3% fall in Q2.