Australian Dollar Hits 10-week High

The Australian dollar rose above $0.71, hitting an eleven-week high and headed for an eight consecutive weekly gain, the longest weekly winning streak since 2020 amid broad weakness in the US dollar. The greenback remained under pressure after a surprise US buyback plan in the Treasury market failed to calm the bond markets. Investors questioned whether the intervention could provide lasting reprieve from elevated long-term borrowing costs, prompting a rebound in US Treasury yields and reinforcing concerns over the country’s widening fiscal deficit and heavy debt burden. The weaker dollar more than offset pressure from softer Australian labor data, which showed employment fell in June and unemployment climbed to a near five-year high of 4.5%. Still, the data was not considered weak enough to fully eliminate expectations for further RBA tightening. Markets imply just a 13% chance for a rate hike to 4.6% next month but a move by February next year is about 68% priced in.

AUDUSD increased to 0.71, the highest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Australian Dollar US Dollar gained 1.85%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.95%.

The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.71, retreating from a ten-week high reached in the previous session as softer labor market data reduced expectations of another RBA rate hike. Employment fell by 15,800 in July, reversing June’s upwardly revised gain of 80,300 and defying forecasts for a 15,000 increase. It marked the first monthly decline since April. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, slightly above both market expectations and June’s 4.4%, reaching its highest level in three months. In its latest forecasts, the RBA projected unemployment would rise to 4.8% by mid-2028 and remain at that level through the second half of the year, above the government's 4.5% forecast. While policymakers continue to view the labor market as relatively tight, recent data suggest employment growth and demand are gradually moderating. The RBA recently held rates steady at its June and August meetings as it assessed the impact of earlier policy tightening on economic activity.