Australian Dollar Holds Decline

2026-07-08 01:46 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

The Australian dollar held its recent decline to around $0.694, moving back toward three-month lows as renewed US-Iran tensions dampened global risk sentiment.

Traders flocked to the safe-haven US dollar, while oil prices jumped after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran and revoked a license allowing the country to sell oil following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, fueling concerns over renewed disruptions in energy supplies.

Meanwhile, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said recent oil price shocks had weakened consumer and business confidence but noted the Australian economy remained resilient.

She also reiterated that the central bank would act as needed to return inflation to target and maintain sustainable full employment.

Still, markets continued to expect the Reserve Bank to keep its cash rate unchanged in August after delivering three rate hikes this year, while the odds of another increase has eased, with a November hike now priced at around 40%.



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Australian Dollar Holds Decline
The Australian dollar held its recent decline to around $0.694, moving back toward three-month lows as renewed US-Iran tensions dampened global risk sentiment. Traders flocked to the safe-haven US dollar, while oil prices jumped after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran and revoked a license allowing the country to sell oil following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, fueling concerns over renewed disruptions in energy supplies. Meanwhile, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said recent oil price shocks had weakened consumer and business confidence but noted the Australian economy remained resilient. She also reiterated that the central bank would act as needed to return inflation to target and maintain sustainable full employment. Still, markets continued to expect the Reserve Bank to keep its cash rate unchanged in August after delivering three rate hikes this year, while the odds of another increase has eased, with a November hike now priced at around 40%.
2026-07-08
Australian Dollar Holds Firm
The Australian dollar held its recent gains around $0.695, staying near a two-week high, as a decline in the US dollar combined with expectations of further RBA rate hikes. Markets continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting minutes, which underscored policymakers' strong concerns over persistent inflation, excess demand, and capacity constraints. Major banks, such as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the minutes highlighted enduring inflationary pressures, while ANZ warned they reinforced the risk of another rate hike in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the greenback came under pressure from easing energy prices and a softer-than-expected US payrolls report, prompting markets to scale back expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with futures pricing a 78% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the July 29 meeting. Elsewhere, US-Iran peace talks showed no progress, but shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover.
2026-07-06
Australian Dollar Set for Weekly Advance
The Australian dollar strengthened for a second straight session to around $0.694 and was on track for a weekly gain, supported by hawkish interpretations of the RBA's June meeting minutes from major banks. While markets priced in only a 15% chance of an August rate hike and roughly 50% odds that the tightening cycle has ended, CBA said the minutes struck a hawkish tone, citing persistent references to excess demand and capacity constraints as signs the RBA remains alert to inflation risks. Likewise, ANZ said the minutes reinforced the risk of another rate hike while leaving its core rate call unchanged. The Aussie dollar also found support from a weaker US dollar after softer-than-expected employment data tempered expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, Australia's S&P Global Composite PMI was revised up to 50.4 in June from a preliminary estimate of 49.8, driven by a return to expansion in services activity (50.5 vs 48.7) and stronger manufacturing growth (51.5 vs 50.7).
2026-07-03