Australian Dollar Poised for Weekly Loss

2026-05-15 01:37 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

The Australian dollar fell to around $0.72, easing from its recent four-year peak and heading for a roughly 0.6% weekly loss, pressured by broad US dollar strength.

The greenback continued to gain momentum throughout the week as rising energy prices and prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing bets that the Fed could deliver another rate hike this year.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank has already raised rates three times this year in response to the war-driven global energy shock, and swaps suggest a roughly 80% chance of a fourth hike by August.

The RBA’s meeting minutes next week will provide further guidance on the policy path, alongside Westpac Consumer Confidence, which is expected to show whether April’s negative reading has stabilized.

Focus is also on the second day of high-stakes talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as Washington seeks economic concessions from Beijing amid the backdrop of the Iran conflict.



News Stream
Australian Dollar Poised for Weekly Loss
The Australian dollar fell to around $0.72, easing from its recent four-year peak and heading for a roughly 0.6% weekly loss, pressured by broad US dollar strength. The greenback continued to gain momentum throughout the week as rising energy prices and prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing bets that the Fed could deliver another rate hike this year. In Australia, the Reserve Bank has already raised rates three times this year in response to the war-driven global energy shock, and swaps suggest a roughly 80% chance of a fourth hike by August. The RBA’s meeting minutes next week will provide further guidance on the policy path, alongside Westpac Consumer Confidence, which is expected to show whether April’s negative reading has stabilized. Focus is also on the second day of high-stakes talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as Washington seeks economic concessions from Beijing amid the backdrop of the Iran conflict.
2026-05-15
Aussie Holds Firm Near 4-Year Highs
The Australian dollar fell to around $0.72, but remained near four-year highs as the government’s annual budget and heightened inflation risks from the prolonged conflict in the Middle East kept expectations of further rate hikes intact. The 2026/27 budget pointed to smaller deficits and introduced notable changes to housing tax settings, but largely left the task of controlling inflation to the Reserve Bank. Markets still imply around a 20% chance of a June hike to the 4.35% cash rate, but the probability of an August move to 4.6% edged above 80%. Latest data also had limited impact, with wage growth coming in as expected in the first quarter while the annual pace eased slightly but remained consistent with persistent labor cost pressures, signaling ongoing inflation resilience. Meanwhile, global energy prices remained elevated as efforts to broker an end to the US-Iran war have made little progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily restricted amid ongoing naval tensions.
2026-05-13
Australian Dollar Remains Firm
The Australian dollar fell to around $0.72 but stayed near its highest since April 2022 as investors turned cautious amid uncertainty in US-Iran peace talks, while the upcoming government budget reinforced efforts to contain inflation. Australia’s government is set to unveil its annual budget on Tuesday, with expectations of a narrower-than-forecasted deficit of around A$25 billion, or 0.8% of GDP. The budget is expected to emphasize spending restraint, including changes to investment tax settings, and a tighter fiscal stance could help ease inflationary pressures and reduce the need for further rate hikes later this year. Swaps currently imply an 18% chance that the Reserve Bank will raise rates in June, while an August move is about 82% priced in, with rates near 4.6% fully priced in by September. Meanwhile, the US and Iran continued to struggle toward a diplomatic resolution in the conflict, while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping energy prices elevated.
2026-05-11