Australia Trade Surplus Below Estimates

Australia unexpectedly posted a goods trade deficit of AUD 1.84 billion in March 2026, shifting from a downwardly revised AUD 5.03 billion surplus in the previous month and missing market expectations of an AUD 4.25 billion surplus. It marked the first trade gap since December 2017, as exports fell while imports surged. Exports dropped 2.7% mom to AUD 43.93 billion, reversing a downwardly revised 4.2% rise in February, mainly driven by other rural products. Also, non-monetary gold exports fell 6.1% to AUD 7.42 billion due to lower global gold prices, which fell over 10% in March, the steepest decline since June 2013. Meanwhile, imports jumped 14.1% to a record high of AUD 45.77 billion, reversing a downwardly revised 2.7% drop in February amid robust domestic demand. The growth was mainly boosted by purchases of capital goods, which surged 36.8% to AUD 12.68 billion, with ADP imports soaring 204.4%, reflecting strong investment in data centres, while purchases of fuel surged. .

Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to AUD 5.69 billion in February 2026 from a downwardly revised AUD 2.26 billion in the previous month, above market expectations of an AUD 2.6 billion surplus. It marked the largest trade surplus since July 2025, as exports grew while imports fell. Exports rose 4.9% month-on-month to a four-month high of AUD 45.65 billion, recovering from an upwardly revised 1.6% fall in the previous month. Shipment growth was mainly supported by rural exports, which rose 13.9% to AUD 7.35 billion, with sharp increases in meat and meat preparations (26.8%). Meanwhile, imports dropped 3.2% to a seven-month low of AUD 39.96 billion, reversing an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in January, amid weaker domestic demand and uncertainty in global trade flows due to geopolitical tensions.

Australia’s goods trade surplus fell to AUD 2.63 billion in January 2026 from AUD 3.37 billion in the previous month, missing market expectations of a AUD 3.9 billion surplus. The weaker outcome was driven by softer exports and a rebound in imports. Sales slipped 0.9% month-on-month to a five-month low of AUD 44.06 billion, reversing a marginally revised 0.9% rise in December. The decline was largely weighed down by lower shipments of other rural goods, likely reflecting seasonal factors and weker global demand. Meanwhile, imports rose 0.8% to AUD 41.43 billion, recovering from a revised 1.8% drop in the prior month. The increase suggests firmer domestic demand and restocking activity at the start of the year, contributing to the narrower trade surplus.