Argentina Monthly Economic Activity Estimator

Argentina's economic activity rose 1.9% year-over-year in January 2026, with seasonally adjusted output up 0.4% from December. Ten of the sectors tracked posted annual gains. Fishing led at 50.8%, followed by agriculture, livestock, hunting, and forestry at 25.1% , which was also the largest positive contributor to annual growth. Mining and quarrying added 9.6%, with agriculture and mining combined contributing 1.7 percentage points to the annual expansion. Conversely, five sectors contracted year-over-year. Wholesale, retail trade, and repairs fell 3.2%, while electricity, gas, and water declined 3.0%. Manufacturing dropped 2.6% and public administration fell 1.6%, with these four sectors combined subtracting 0.9 percentage points from annual growth.

Argentina’s economic activity increased 3.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from a 0.1% decline in November and marking a return to expansion. Growth was primarily driven by a significant strengthening in agriculture (32.2% vs 11.5%) alongside accelerated gains in mining (9.1% vs 7.3%) and utilities (10.7% vs 1.8%). Financial intermediation (14.1% vs 13.8%), real estate and business services (1.6% vs 0.5%), and transport and communications (1.8% vs 1.9%) also remained positive contributors. Furthermore, the construction (0.3% vs -2.5%) and education (0.3% vs 0.5%) sectors added to the expansion. Conversely, the recovery was limited by continued contractions in manufacturing (-3.9% vs -8.0%), trade (-1.3% vs -6.0%), and the public sector (-1.1% vs -1.1%), albeit at a softer rate. Additionally, hotels and restaurants moved into negative territory (-1.5% vs 0.8%). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, activity rose (1.8%), while the trend-cycle increased (0.3%).

Argentina’s economic activity declined 0.3% year-on-year in November 2025, down from a 3.2% increase in October and marking the first contraction since September 2024. The slowdown reflected weaker performance across several sectors, including manufacturing (-8.2% vs -2.7%), construction (-2.3% vs 5.3%), trade (-6.4% vs 0.6%), real estate and business services (0.4% vs 3.8%) and education (0.7% vs 0.9%). By contrast, agriculture strengthened (10.5% vs 3.1%), hotels and restaurants moved into modest positive territory (0.3% vs -0.4%), transport and communications moderated (1.8% vs 2.5%) and financial intermediation remained a positive contributor albeit smaller (13.9% vs 23.1%). Utilities posted a smaller gain (1.6% vs 2.1%) and the public sector’s small contraction persisted (-0.6% vs -0.8%). Mining stayed in expansion but slowed (7.0% vs 8.1%). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, activity fell (-0.3%), while the trend-cycle was unchanged (0.0%).