Argentina - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.30 10.1 10 9.5 9.1 9 percent
Inflation Rate 25.00 24 22 21 20 10 percent
Interest Rate 27.25 27.25 26 25 24 15.5 percent
Balance of Trade -847.00 -1180 -1270 -1170 -990 -10 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 54.20 54.7 54.7 54.7 54.7 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 19.89
19.12 19.58 20.06 20.55 22.63
Stock Market 33058.87
points
31972 30402 28909 27490 18377
Government Bond 10y 6.22
percent
6.42 6.31 6.23 6.18 6.11
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent
2.5 2.7 2.9 3 3.4
GDP 545.90
USD Billion
560 560 560 560 620
GDP Constant Prices 719778.00
ARS Million
678731 751833 724562 700000 805000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 156046.00
ARS Million
142624 144540 146014 169000 180000
GDP per capita 10148.50
USD
10280 10280 10280 10280 13400
GDP per capita PPP 18479.40
USD
19100 19100 19100 19100 22000
GDP From Agriculture 33783.00
ARS Million
31787 100497 34276 36000 38000
GDP From Construction 23041.37
ARS Million
22974 21900 22323 20000 22000
GDP From Manufacturing 123833.57
ARS Million
116458 118890 121025 125000 136000
GDP From Mining 21644.17
ARS Million
22050 22740 22450 22320 22760
GDP From Public Administration 32942.84
ARS Million
32953 32948 32933 31389 30916
GDP From Services 96857.37
ARS Million
90000 95002 95826 96000 105000
GDP From Transport 58633.64
ARS Million
57845 59193 58759 65500 67000
GDP From Utilities 12581.01
ARS Million
12970 12650 12970 12230 12740
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.30
percent
10.1 10 9.5 9.1 9
Employed Persons 11694.00
Thousand
11808 11876 11926 15000 15500
Unemployed Persons 1058.00
Thousand
1089 1103 1120 1100 1000
Employment Rate 42.40
percent
42.08 42.04 42.05 43.2 45
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.30
percent
45.92 45.75 45.83 45.91 45.79
Wages 26163.00
ARS/Month
25663 25555 25454 25358 24258
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74
Index Points
3708 3848 3986 3150 3700
Minimum Wages 9500.00
ARS/Month
9500 9500 9500 9500 11000
Population 43.59
Million
43.81 43.93 44.04 44.15 45.37
Wages Low Skilled 9910.00
ARS/Month
10540 10540 10540 10540 13540
Wages High Skilled 20000.00
ARS/Month
23000 23000 23000 23000 26700
Wage Growth 0.74
Percent
2.06 1.87 2.09 2.18 2.27
Living Wage Family 11300.00
ARS/Month
12600 12600 12600 12600 13300
Living Wage Individual 7620.00
ARS/Month
7600 7600 7600 7600 8000
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 25.00
percent
24 22 21 20 10
Inflation Rate Mom 1.80
percent
1.5 1.6 1.7 1 1.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.99
Index Points
118 120 121 126 134
GDP Deflator 1463.30
Index Points
1567 1628 1674 1780 2130
Producer Prices 949.61
Index Points
1039 1039 1015 1050 1080
Export Prices 155.10
Index Points
158 157 156 156 149
Import Prices 114.30
Index Points
115 115 115 127 129
Producer Prices Change 16.80
percent
16.33 16.01 15.71 15.44 13.3
CPI Housing Utilities 157.22
Index Points
166 164 154 142 131
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 27.25
percent
27.25 26 25 24 15.5
Interbank Rate 27.42
percent
18 16 16 16 11
Money Supply M0 966089.00
ARS Million
982592 982524 981758 1283097 1432662
Money Supply M1 1226161.50
ARS Million
1239534 1240331 1239366 827047 957789
Money Supply M2 1728297.50
ARS Million
1865130 1906036 1915706 1280000 1370000
Money Supply M3 2533994.90
ARS Million
2886363 3113353 3254543 1671923 1851923
Deposit Interest Rate 24.30
percent
27 27 27 27 32
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50107.00
USD Million
50732 50550 50231 49893 52683
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3049710.71
USD Million
3080789 3062569 3034184 3002892 2655006
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -847.00
USD Million
-1180 -1270 -1170 -990 -10
Exports 4515.00
USD Million
5220 5300 5450 5510 6940
Imports 5362.00
USD Million
6400 6570 6620 6500 6950
Current Account -8683.45
USD Million
-6764 -6303 -7092 -3000 -3000
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent
-2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -1.9
External Debt 216350.88
USD Million
217435 218032 215946 175000 170000
Terms of Trade 135.70
Index Points
135 131 131 132 130
Capital Flows -8412.15
USD Million
-5823 -6028 -5962 3510 6510
Foreign Direct Investment 309.65
USD Millions
1050 1200 1370 1500 1800
Remittances 1078.00
USD Million
979 994 1009 1024 570
Tourist Arrivals 244500.00
441000 551000 642700 718400 999800
Gold Reserves 56.12
Tonnes
53.08 50.54 49.55 48.96 46.42
Crude Oil Production 485.00
BBL/D/1K
510 510 500 510 510
Terrorism Index 0.81
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.20
percent
54.7 54.7 54.7 54.7 56
Government Budget -4.60
percent of GDP
-3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -2.5
Government Budget Value -150107.70
ARS Million
-76200 -79750 -77382 -75739 -58047
Government Spending 100412.00
ARS Million
96142 97849 98985 100554 107000
Government Revenues -269714.80
ARS Million
-41243 -27241 -48283 -44337 30724
Fiscal Expenditure -119607.10
ARS Million
73052 83507 71821 67405 55033
Military Expenditure 6163.90
USD Million
5745 5875 6004 6134 6442
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.30
percent
1.8 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.8
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6
Capacity Utilization 64.04
percent
66.41 66.07 66.26 66.37 67.16
Changes in Inventories 11604.00
ARS Million
-6201 10138 -5841 13623 8134
Car Production 21858.00
Units
29823 29937 31596 38900 40900
Car Registrations 64.45
Thousand
73.45 70.58 69.27 55 58
Leading Economic Index -0.60
percent
1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.8
Internet Speed 6268.01
KBps
6225 6409 6401 6191 5656
IP Addresses 8203135.00
IP
8243259 8216994 8176685 8126888 7367612
Steel Production 380.84
Thousand Tonnes
391 380 375 370 344
Competitiveness Index 3.95
Points
3.9 3.85 3.85 3.85 4
Competitiveness Rank 92.00
100 97 100 97 98
Ease of Doing Business 117.00
114 114 114 114 113
Corruption Index 36.00
Points
33 35 37 39 39
Corruption Rank 95.00
101 93 93 93 91
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 45.20
Index Points
51 52 53 54 53
Retail Sales MoM 25.90
percent
1.11 1.11 1.11 1.2 1.1
Retail Sales YoY 20.20
percent
18.73 9.2 12 20 17
Consumer Spending 523604.00
ARS Million
518716 556342 525838 563000 585000
Gasoline Prices 1.20
USD/Liter
1.1 1.09 1.18 1.08 1.17
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 621.71
SQ. METRE THO
611 608 602 620 640
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 44.00
percent
44 44 44 44 44
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 77.43
mm
62.54 37.93 25.77 54.22 46.12
Temperature 20.31
celsius
19.98 11.06 9.81 17.8 14.99