Argentina | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.06 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.70 10 10.2 10.1 10 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 23.10 21.5 20 19 18 12 percent [+]
Interest Rate 26.25 25.75 24.75 23.5 22.75 15.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -798.00 -450 -710 -1180 -1270 -10 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.20 54.3 54.3 54.7 54.7 56 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 17.11 17.06 16.89 16.71 16.54 14.65 [+]
Stock Market 24214.62 22200 22000 21700 21500 19100 points [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.06 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.4 percent [+]
GDP 545.90 550 550 560 560 620 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 677346.00 718000 720000 680428 752658 805000 ARS Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 129173.00 151000 160000 131681 140781 180000 ARS Million [+]
GDP per capita 10148.50 10180 10180 10280 10280 13400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18479.40 18700 18700 19100 19100 22000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 34186.27 35000 35000 34982 94839 38000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 21275.77 22000 22000 21188 20397 22000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 110016.08 123000 123500 110157 115944 136000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Mining 21080.74 22120 21950 22050 22740 22760 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 32913.00 33476 33612 33763 33982 30916 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Services 86197.79 94000 95000 90000 95002 105000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 57561.46 64000 64500 59080 61867 67000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12817.56 12890 12120 12970 12650 12740 ARS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.70 10 10.2 10.1 10 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 11395.00 13000 13900 11324 11324 15500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1088.00 1360 1350 1266 1298 1000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 41.50 41.5 42.2 41 40.97 45 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 45.40 45.85 45.56 45.63 45.76 45.69 percent [+]
Wages 31225.00 24009 24142 24137 24147 24144 ARS/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74 2650 2800 3777 3941 3700 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 8860.00 8110 9318 9703 10107 10510 ARS/Month [+]
Population 43.59 43.49 43.61 43.61 43.61 45.57 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 9308.20 12400 12400 12600 12600 13300 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7055.10 7200 7400 7600 7600 8000 ARS/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 7100.00 7700 8100 11344 11950 17900 ARS/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 16400.00 19500 20350 20991 21647 26700 ARS/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 23.10 21.5 20 19 18 12 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.40 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 115.38 115 117 118 120 134 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 1318.10 1540 1650 1581 1645 2130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 949.61 1035 1037 1039 1039 1080 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 152.10 152 152 152 152 152 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 119.40 125 126 119 120 129 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 126.76 134 144 157 167 279 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 11.53 14.66 14.49 14.46 14.54 14.72 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 26.25 25.75 24.75 23.5 22.75 15.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 26.06 20 19 18 16 11 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 838398.00 847027 891595 924082 959998 1432662 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1008171.70 1024113 1064731 1103754 1142685 957789 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1403795.80 1449544 1240000 1591137 1658990 1370000 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2179342.00 1564102 1571923 2523570 2642095 1851923 ARS Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 24.30 525 525 537 550 15.15 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 42596.00 43457 44358 45077 45643 52683 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2720399.27 2758798 2768979 2773361 2775436 2777884 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -798.00 -450 -710 -1180 -1270 -10 USD Million [+]
Exports 5241.00 5450 5390 5220 5300 6940 USD Million [+]
Imports 6039.00 5900 6100 6400 6570 6950 USD Million [+]
Current Account -6871.00 -2000 -2400 -6170 -4964 -3000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 204508.58 207654 210622 211207 211913 170000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 127.40 131 131 131 129 130 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -6453.54 6104 2490 6808 1766 6510 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 850 960 1050 1200 1800 USD Millions [+]
Remittances 1078.00 1045 1038 1034 1031 996 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483988.00 1205426 1443714 1691427 1142465 1431449 [+]
Gold Reserves 59.78 62.6 64.67 64.74 64.65 64.57 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 485.00 488 505 510 510 510 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.50 1.13 1.07 1.23 1.38 1.75 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.20 54.3 54.3 54.7 54.7 56 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.60 -4.5 -4.5 -3.9 -3.9 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -22089.60 -32899 -50282 -32916 -52077 -52677 ARS Million [+]
Government Spending 93593.00 98921 104000 94072 96609 107000 ARS Million [+]
Government Revenues 210802.80 162746 163750 189676 184487 175645 ARS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 232892.40 187052 197762 198129 198038 198023 ARS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6163.90 5989 6154 6220 6287 6666 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Industrial Production 5.90 3.5 3.3 1.8 2.4 2.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 65.10 65.54 65.86 65.99 66.13 66.94 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6896.00 -4443 17782 -4992 6877 8574 ARS Million [+]
Car Production 45262.00 46486 36900 42682 41857 40900 Units [+]
Car Registrations 76.70 49 52 72.02 70.7 58 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.10 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.81 3.81 3.81 3.85 3.85 4 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 104.00 103 103 100 100 98 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 116.00 115 115 114 114 113 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 38 38 40 40 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 93 93 93 93 91 [+]
Steel Production 355.00 362 367 368 368 368 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 47.60 49 50 51 52 53 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -44.76 -1 1.1 1.63 1.63 1.1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 11.30 13 12 10.57 9.2 17 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 519737.00 525000 557000 521795 547671 585000 ARS Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.19 1.12 1.12 1.1 1.09 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 683.44 500 515 639 639 640 SQ. METRE THO [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]