Argentina | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.70 10.2 10.1 10 9.5 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 22.90 20 19 18 18 12 percent [+]
Interest Rate 28.75 28.75 27.75 27.75 27 15.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -765.00 -710 -1180 -1270 -1170 -10 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.20 54.3 54.7 54.7 54.7 56 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 17.46 17.22 17.04 16.87 16.69 14.78 [+]
Stock Market 27128.50 26700 26500 26200 25900 23000 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.4 percent [+]
GDP 545.90 550 560 560 560 620 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 781780.00 720000 677535 751000 719951 805000 ARS Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 152705.00 160000 141643 143723 145030 180000 ARS Million [+]
GDP per capita 10148.50 10180 10280 10280 10280 13400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 18479.40 18700 19100 19100 19100 22000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 106364.68 35000 32271 100367 32650 38000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 21231.01 22000 21814 21104 21455 22000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 120537.98 123500 114918 118570 117579 136000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Mining 20827.23 21950 22050 22740 22450 22760 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 33052.97 33138 33168 33172 33170 30916 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Services 95446.93 95000 90000 95002 95826 105000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 61495.51 64500 58512 59525 59444 67000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12268.42 12120 12970 12650 12970 12740 ARS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.70 10.2 10.1 10 9.5 9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 11395.00 13900 11577 11638 11696 15500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1088.00 1350 1125 1140 1157 1000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 41.50 42.2 41.46 41.44 41.42 45 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 45.40 45.47 45.54 45.55 45.56 45.65 percent [+]
Wages 34251.00 28276 28190 28109 28017 27187 ARS/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74 2800 3708 3848 3986 3700 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 8860.00 8858 8853 8848 8843 10510 ARS/Month [+]
Population 43.59 44.04 44.15 44.26 44.38 45.37 Million [+]
Wages Low Skilled 9910.00 8100 8842 9021 9200 17900 ARS/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 20000.00 20350 18259 18516 18773 26700 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 11300.00 12400 12600 12600 12600 13300 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7620.00 7400 7600 7600 7600 8000 ARS/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 22.90 20 19 18 18 12 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.50 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 119.35 117 118 120 121 134 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 1319.40 1650 1324 1316 1306 2130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 949.61 1018 1039 1039 1015 1080 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 149.10 147 147 146 146 141 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.30 126 116 116 115 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 15.40 15.13 14.88 14.65 14.43 13.06 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 130.41 130 123 114 107 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 28.75 28.75 27.75 27.75 27 15.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 26.49 19 18 16 16 11 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 881242.00 882967 882164 881426 880685 1432662 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1030414.30 1030968 1029838 1028813 1027797 957789 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1424372.70 1240000 1446133 1444924 1443484 1370000 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2194703.30 1571923 2250135 2253891 2254054 1851923 ARS Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 24.30 25 27 27 27 32 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 44721.00 44772 44491 44160 43823 52683 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3016438.20 3078236 3098175 3081327 3053104 2777422 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -765.00 -710 -1180 -1270 -1170 -10 USD Million [+]
Exports 5198.00 5390 5220 5300 5450 6940 USD Million [+]
Imports 5963.00 6100 6400 6570 6620 6950 USD Million [+]
Current Account -5954.00 -2400 -5096 -5131 -4522 -3000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 204818.00 204524 201718 198524 195308 170000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 128.20 130 129 128 128 126 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -6371.74 2490 -4181 -3564 -3084 6510 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 960 1050 1200 1370 1800 USD Millions [+]
Remittances 1078.00 1024 1006 988 969 601 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483988.00 1403200 1674200 1368500 1238400 1328900 [+]
Gold Reserves 59.78 63.34 63.06 62.41 61.42 55.44 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 485.00 505 510 510 500 510 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.50 1.04 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.20 54.3 54.7 54.7 54.7 56 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.60 -4.5 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -31353.10 -25181 -22792 -20586 -18653 -8154 ARS Million [+]
Government Spending 98366.00 100358 95255 97890 96803 107000 ARS Million [+]
Government Revenues 198936.40 206480 210478 208695 205900 192936 ARS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 230289.50 225418 222792 221878 221390 215665 ARS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6163.90 6134 6182 6231 6279 6418 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 2.30 3.3 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 66.34 66.71 66.71 66.81 66.88 67.32 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 11604.00 17739 -6242 10143 -5848 9390 ARS Million [+]
Car Production 43854.00 36900 42008 41329 40732 40900 Units [+]
Car Registrations 74.42 52 72.65 71.31 70.02 58 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.60 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 percent [+]
Internet Speed 6268.01 6504 6225 6409 6401 5656 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 8203135.00 8265446 8243259 8216994 8176685 7621465 IP [+]
Steel Production 413.04 393 387 381 375 348 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.95 3.81 3.9 3.85 3.85 4 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 92.00 103 100 97 100 98 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 117.00 115 114 114 114 113 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 38 39 39 38 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 93 88 93 93 91 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 51.10 50 51 52 53 53 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 25.90 1.1 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 24.80 12 20 9.2 12 17 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 579170.00 557000 518552 557674 537198 585000 ARS Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.23 1.12 1.1 1.09 1.19 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 602.80 515 629 621 614 640 SQ. METRE THO [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 77.00 48.88 47.93 48.25 48.57 48.37 mm [+]
Temperature 20.00 18.72 16.15 9.48 12.1 17.42 celsius [+]