Argentina - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.2 -0.8 -1.2 0.3 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.20 7.4 7.7 7.5 6.7 6.8 percent
Inflation Rate 25.60 19 19 17 17 15 percent
Interest Rate 40.00 40 40 40 37.25 25 percent
Balance of Trade -938.00 -2170 -2070 -1900 -1400 -1950 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 54.20 54.7 54.7 54.7 54.9 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 24.58
20.66 21.19 21.73 22.29 24.65
Stock Market 29664.90
points
29583 27922 26358 24879 19749
Government Bond 10y 6.22
percent
6.31 6.23 6.18 6.16 6.11
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
0.2 -0.8 -1.2 0.3 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.90
percent
2.2 2.1 2 2.3 2.6
GDP 545.90
USD Billion
560 560 560 600 620
GDP Constant Prices 723427.00
ARS Million
794750 728751 737896 699515 776008
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 161782.00
ARS Million
149526 157859 165018 133808 173541
GDP per capita 10148.50
USD
10280 10280 10280 13100 13400
GDP per capita PPP 18479.40
USD
19100 19100 19100 21800 22000
GDP From Agriculture 33917.68
ARS Million
107253 33199 34596 37500 36383
GDP From Construction 22594.36
ARS Million
21677 23344 23046 21805 24237
GDP From Manufacturing 128028.85
ARS Million
125816 127202 130589 112337 137334
GDP From Mining 21687.97
ARS Million
20800 21614 22122 21310 23264
GDP From Public Administration 33308.92
ARS Million
33383 33454 33975 33775 35730
GDP From Services 99198.13
ARS Million
97193 97229 101182 90396 106408
GDP From Transport 58414.07
ARS Million
62108 59995 59582 58982 62660
GDP From Utilities 12063.43
ARS Million
12583 12735 12305 13180 12940
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.20
percent
7.4 7.7 7.5 6.7 6.8
Employed Persons 11892.00
Thousand
11660 11660 15000 11660 15500
Unemployed Persons 926.00
Thousand
1000 1100 1250 950 1000
Employment Rate 43.00
percent
42.3 42.3 43.2 42.3 45
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.40
percent
46.08 46.04 46.05 46.05 46.05
Wages 26163.00
ARS/Month
38000 29000 40000 30000 45000
Minimum Wages 9500.00
ARS/Month
9500 9500 9500 10000 11000
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74
Index Points
3180 3250 3300 3400 3600
Population 44.05
Million
43.81 43.92 44.04 44.15 45.78
Wages Low Skilled 9910.00
ARS/Month
10540 10540 10540 11500 11500
Wages High Skilled 20000.00
ARS/Month
23000 23000 23000 25500 26700
Wage Growth 0.80
Percent
1.74 1.8 1.86 1.88 1.92
Living Wage Family 11300.00
ARS/Month
12600 12600 12600 13000 13300
Living Wage Individual 7620.00
ARS/Month
7600 7600 7600 7620 8000
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 25.60
percent
19 19 17 17 15
Inflation Rate Mom 2.70
percent
2.5 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 136.75
Index Points
133 140 146 156 196
GDP Deflator 1595.80
Index Points
1488 1487 1780 1488 2130
Producer Prices 949.61
Index Points
1282 1329 1585 1206 2114
Export Prices 160.20
Index Points
157 156 155 155 149
Import Prices 119.40
Index Points
117 117 127 117 129
Producer Prices Change 32.40
percent
35 40 33 27 13
Inflation Expectations 25.00
Percent
20 22 22 22 20
CPI Housing Utilities 177.25
Index Points
145 154 182 192 245
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 37.25 25
Interbank Rate 26.84
percent
38.09 38.09 38.09 35.34 23.09
Money Supply M0 999359.00
ARS Million
982743 903818 1283097 821077 1432662
Money Supply M1 1173745.60
ARS Million
1231625 1280903 827047 1375447 957789
Money Supply M2 1665098.50
ARS Million
1765347 1852120 1280000 2018723 1370000
Money Supply M3 2732340.80
ARS Million
2922510 3100480 1671923 3469253 1851923
Deposit Interest Rate 24.30
percent
35.55 35.55 35.55 32.8 20.55
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50771.00
USD Million
50000 50000 52500 53000 56000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3467656.61
USD Million
3408257 3154340 2892654 2766792 3031847
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -938.00
USD Million
-2170 -2070 -1900 -1400 -1950
Exports 5164.00
USD Million
4400 4550 4600 5400 5000
Imports 6102.00
USD Million
6570 6620 6500 6800 6950
Current Account -8738.00
USD Million
-8600 -8800 -9100 -9200 -8400
Current Account to GDP -4.80
percent
-2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -1.9
External Debt 232951.95
USD Million
218047 218040 175000 218040 170000
Terms of Trade 134.20
Index Points
135 134 121 133 115
Foreign Direct Investment 135.15
USD Millions
1200 1370 1500 166 1800
Capital Flows -8335.94
USD Million
-6957 -7094 3510 -6457 6510
Tourist Arrivals 196000.00
516100 610300 689200 754500 1032300
Gold Reserves 61.70
Tonnes
62.94 64.9 64.77 65.07 64.93
Crude Oil Production 480.00
BBL/D/1K
510 500 510 474 510
Terrorism Index 0.81
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.56 1.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.20
percent
54.7 54.7 54.7 54.9 56
Government Budget -3.90
percent of GDP
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4
Government Budget Value -10342.40
ARS Million
-33355 -26490 -26877 -26794 -26788
Government Spending 102478.00
ARS Million
100407 101792 104528 95764 109926
Government Revenues 237579.10
ARS Million
215133 220423 220054 220284 220302
Fiscal Expenditure 247921.50
ARS Million
248488 246913 247020 247079 247090
Military Expenditure 5164.97
USD Million
6002 6240 6479 6467 6795
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 1.20
percent
1.3 1.5 1.6 2 2.6
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
1.2 1.4 1.3 0.43 1.6
Capacity Utilization 66.79
percent
63 63 64 65 66
Changes in Inventories 41711.00
ARS Million
24560 22959 23379 23269 23292
Car Production 45802.00
Units
44924 40851 38900 38645 40900
Car Registrations 72.75
Thousand
80.11 78.19 55 77.12 58
Leading Economic Index 1.40
percent
-2.6 -3 -2.8 0.5 1.8
Internet Speed 6268.01
KBps
6409 6401 6191 6215 5325
IP Addresses 8203135.00
IP
8216994 8176685 8126888 8072624 7367612
Steel Production 463.01
Thousand Tonnes
424 417 411 408 406
Competitiveness Index 3.95
Points
3.85 3.85 3.85 3.88 4
Competitiveness Rank 92.00
97 100 97 84 98
Ease of Doing Business 117.00
114 114 114 118 113
Corruption Index 39.00
Points
39 39 39 39 39
Corruption Rank 85.00
93 93 93 85 91
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 36.10
Index Points
37.7 38.1 38.3 38.3 39
Retail Sales MoM 25.90
percent
1.63 1.63 1.2 1.63 1.1
Retail Sales YoY 35.50
percent
16.4 16.1 20 10.2 17
Consumer Spending 502190.00
ARS Million
586312 532396 512234 539571 538691
Households Debt To Gdp 6.50
Percent
6.66 6.62 6.55 6.45 5.1
Gasoline Prices 1.23
USD/Liter
1.19 1.12 1.06 1 0.69
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 666.44
SQ. METRE THO
564 573 620 575 640
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 44.00
percent
44 44 44 44 44
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00
percent
17 17 17 16.66 17
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 77.43
mm
37.93 25.77 54.22 62.67 46.12
Temperature 20.31
celsius
11.06 9.81 17.8 20.02 14.99