Argentina | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.60 10.1 10.2 10.2 7.76 9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 40.50 40 34 30 38.76 10 percent [+]
Interest Rate 26.25 21.25 20.25 18.75 18 12.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -139.00 810 900 740 -63.83 -10 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 54 52.88 53.55 57 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 22141.71 20100 19900 19300 19500 16200 points [+]
Currency 16.07 15.52 15.68 16.14 15.98 18.44 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.10 2 2.3 2.2 1.8 2 percent [+]
GDP 584.70 530 530 530 595 650 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 689989.00 768000 718000 720000 663824 950000 ARS Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130346.00 158000 151000 160000 124678 180000 ARS Million [+]
GDP per capita 10501.66 12500 12500 12500 10624 13400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 19101.70 19200 19200 19200 19228 22000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 33005.11 103500 35000 35000 34291 38000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Construction 19356.06 20000 23000 24000 19430 30000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 123432.15 117000 123000 123500 109532 136000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Mining 21638.69 22034 26900 22065 21929 24222 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 32784.96 33473 33639 33763 34002 36331 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Services 93178.44 96700 99000 100000 88170 133000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Transport 57365.15 63000 64000 64500 58988 67000 ARS Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12042.83 12572 13005 12584 12984 13553 ARS Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.60 10.1 10.2 10.2 7.76 9 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 937.00 1350 1360 1350 893 1000 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 11459.00 11240 13000 13900 11456 15500 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 41.90 41.2 41.5 42.2 41.75 45 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 45.30 45.48 45.57 45.4 45.28 45.42 percent [+]
Wages 31225.00 24379 24009 24142 24137 24144 ARS/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74 2550 2650 2800 3777 3700 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 8062.00 8555 6810 9370 9784 7010 ARS/Month [+]
Population 43.59 43.38 43.49 43.61 43.61 45.57 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 9308.20 12400 12400 12400 8782 13300 ARS/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7055.10 7000 7200 7400 8118 8000 ARS/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 7100.00 7500 7700 8100 11344 1790 ARS/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 16400.00 19000 19500 20350 20991 26700 ARS/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 40.50 40 34 30 38.76 10 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 2.60 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.5 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 127.52 127 128 135 127 150 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 1279.70 1410 1540 1650 1696 2130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 949.61 1033 1035 1037 1039 1080 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 152.40 153 152 153 153 153 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.10 124 125 126 117 129 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 134.16 135 135 135 135 135 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 11.53 14.99 14.66 14.49 14.46 14.72 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 26.25 21.25 20.25 18.75 18 12.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 23.96 20 20 19 25.55 11 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 795910.00 851683 876157 918409 959182 1432662 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M1 929776.30 974051 1011458 1048761 1085958 957789 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1269281.10 1170000 1391189 1240000 1504775 1370000 ARS Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2020576.90 1556320 1564102 1571923 2379370 1851923 ARS Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 24.30 17.89 525 525 537 15.15 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 45788.00 50758 54228 56910 59015 66220 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2752881.49 2861980 2924860 2961650 2981168 3004308 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -139.00 810 900 740 -63.83 -10 USD Million [+]
Exports 4825.00 5690 5700 5840 4779 6940 USD Million [+]
Imports 4964.00 4890 4900 5100 4972 6950 USD Million [+]
Current Account -4399.99 -2800 -2000 -2500 -3912 -4000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.90 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.29 -0.4 percent [+]
External Debt 192461.67 197578 199133 199811 200157 180000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 131.30 131 135 133 133 133 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 13618.19 1560 8320 2490 6187 6510 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 788.00 721 669 750 670 727 USD Millions [+]
Remittances 1078.00 1052 1045 1038 1034 996 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483988.00 1128758 1205426 1443714 1691427 1431449 [+]
Gold Reserves 56.76 52.91 52.94 52.87 53.08 52.83 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 495.00 500 500 500 500 500 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.50 1.67 1.13 1.07 1.23 1.75 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.40 52.56 54 52.88 53.55 57 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.88 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -18184.20 -34292 -8528 -30234 -7478 -29124 ARS Million [+]
Government Spending 100805.00 94905 98654 104000 91299 107000 ARS Million [+]
Government Revenues 201115.90 226267 201360 210835 201728 202401 ARS Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 219300.10 231887 217801 221110 220611 221241 ARS Million [+]
Military Expenditure 5342.00 5702 5757 5811 5926 7266 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production -0.40 -1.5 0.2 1.1 -1.09 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.43 0.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 65.70 64.2 64.05 64.17 64.12 64.15 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 22357.00 -19408 -3512 15955 -5086 7800 ARS Million [+]
Car Production 37730.00 32900 36767 34900 36800 40900 Units [+]
Car Registrations 68.12 48 49 52 68.67 58 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.70 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.42 0.3 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.81 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.86 4 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 104.00 106 105 106 100 98 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 116.00 121 117 121 117 117 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 32 32 35 40 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 107 96 106 93 103 [+]
Steel Production 392.26 375 376 375 375 375 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM -44.76 -0.5 -1 1.1 1.63 1.1 percent [+]
Consumer Confidence 45.76 45.8 49 50.94 45.65 53 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.60 25 23 22 11.91 17 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 477895.00 540000 525000 557000 510934 585000 ARS Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.17 1.17 1.2 1.17 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 582.00 450 500 515 551 640 SQ. METRE THO [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 44.00 44 44 44 44 44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00 27 27 27 27 27 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]