Poland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.80 7.7 7.5 7.3 7 6.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 764.00 170 200 800 -268 550 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.10 52.9 49.4 49.4 49.4 45.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3.60 3.65 3.62 3.58 3.54 3.14 [+]
Stock Market 63621.92 63700 63000 62400 61700 54700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.41 3.44 3.48 3.51 3.55 3.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.70 3.6 3.4 3.3 3 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 469.51 508 528 528 428 564 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 466894.70 566000 572000 583000 445219 625000 PLN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 76050.00 146000 53700 77200 76555 154000 PLN Million [+]
GDP per capita 15048.98 15700 16200 16200 16200 17200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 26003.01 26100 26700 26700 26878 28300 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 9500.50 10348 10096 9777 9727 9786 PLN Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 30090.60 37395 19436 29685 28167 36050 PLN Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 77045.80 96363 90515 78051 78412 88412 PLN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 7.7 7.5 7.3 7 6.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 16496.00 16600 16700 16800 16418 17600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1071.08 1150 1140 1130 1132 1020 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.77 1.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.80 13.4 13.2 13 13.63 12 percent [+]
Labour Costs 103.40 99.5 106 104 106 106 Index Points [+]
Productivity 115.10 134 108 110 108 146 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 113.80 55.6 100 94.34 89.23 65.8 Thousand [+]
Wages 4255.59 4500 4500 4600 4063 4850 PLN/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 4302.03 4400 4400 4500 4301 4750 PLN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 7.40 4.4 4 3.6 5.63 2.5 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 453.48 453 470 470 452 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 37.97 37.94 37.91 37.91 37.91 37.84 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.58 60.58 60.58 60.58 61 60.58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.58 65.58 65.58 65.58 66 65.58 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.20 56.6 56.7 56.8 56.22 59 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 1069.70 1220 1230 1240 1063 1490 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 4.40 4.7 4.4 4.2 2.8 3.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 66.20 65.1 65.2 65.3 66.15 68 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 14880.30 15700 15800 15900 14780 17100 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.59 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 172.20 176 178 180 173 196 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.82 106 108 110 101 124 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.80 1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 108.77 110 111 112 110 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 109.10 116 118 120 109 136 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.00 5.2 4.3 3.2 4.2 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 100.30 102 102 102 137 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 102.50 102 102 102 141 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.40 4 3.6 3.2 3 2.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.20 106 108 110 101 126 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.63 1.63 1.8 1.97 2.14 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 236850.60 241000 245000 249000 235895 295000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 844458.40 907000 925000 944000 854635 1400000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1266349.00 1490000 1570000 1660000 1287835 2260000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1275942.40 1600000 1670000 1760000 1292316 2450000 PLN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 110639.00 110000 110500 111000 110669 125000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1830087.00 2020000 2070000 2140000 1821465 2620000 PLN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.6 0.68 0.77 1.5 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 127.34 125 122 122 127 118 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50 3.5 3.52 3.53 3.54 3.64 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 431688.70 522000 528000 534000 417174 654000 PLN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 764.00 170 200 800 -268 550 EUR Million [+]
Exports 17207.00 14220 15500 15600 15686 15440 EUR Million [+]
Imports 16443.00 14050 15300 14800 15498 14890 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -100.00 -178 -220 -540 -832 223 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.30 -1.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1 percent [+]
External Debt 363658.00 372000 374000 378000 361587 397000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 97.90 103 103 102 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -357.00 -870 -910 850 -372 -270 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 176005.00 183000 185200 186000 154436 194300 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 1050.00 1190 1220 1250 949 1450 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 102.97 103 103 103 103 103 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0.11 0 [+]
Weapons Sales 3.00 72.91 77.38 81.84 86.3 87.46 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 13.00 22 22 22 13.88 22 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.10 52.9 49.4 49.4 49.4 45.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -1.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3775.07 -49400 -4900 -16900 -12163 -51600 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending 84649.90 107000 79100 84600 81265 119000 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.30 41.2 41 41 43.78 41 percent [+]
Government Revenues 262262.62 295000 82300 159100 92102 327000 PLN Million [+]
Government Debt 936501.48 962000 975000 985000 930802 1152000 PLN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 258487.54 344400 87200 176000 121835 378600 PLN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 9790.70 10036 9983 9929 9875 9346 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 195.00 390 350 370 661 340 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 4.60 7.7 8.6 9 3.68 8 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.40 52.2 53.2 53.6 51.9 53 [+]
Industrial Production 12.30 6.2 4.9 4.4 6.02 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.20 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.47 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 14.00 5.4 4.4 4 6.79 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.40 80.8 81 79.9 78.62 84 percent [+]
New Orders 107.30 103 105 106 112 105 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11185.90 3150 5444 4238 3659 2050 PLN Million [+]
Car Production 38.00 37.6 59.9 60.2 39.01 40.5 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 40507.00 41400 50200 39200 28410 53900 Cars [+]
IP Addresses 6362131.00 6314375 6300066 6287813 6277347 6196190 IP [+]
Steel Production 880.00 574 880 650 847 584 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -1.50 2.3 2.4 2.5 -1.6 1.3 percent [+]
Cement Production 1744.00 1050 1500 1620 1302 1360 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.59 4.56 4.59 4.59 4.54 4.68 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 39.00 36 39 35 39 33 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 27.00 24 23 23 33 21 [+]
Electricity Production 13501.00 15000 14500 12900 13450 15400 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 154837.80 162000 45200 95200 117508 179000 PLN Million [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 63 64 64 60 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 29 30 31 31 26 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 4.60 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.19 1 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 -0.6 0.8 -0.6 0.36 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 8.00 4.5 4.2 3.6 7.33 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 276846.90 264000 289000 275000 283480 284000 PLN Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.49 14.1 -6.6 2.8 3.76 15.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 677791.95 692000 699000 705000 684831 758000 PLN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.1 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.18 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.50 35.4 34.9 34.9 35.53 34.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 60.61 57 56.7 56.7 60.89 56 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 23.20 4.4 3.2 3 7.31 2.6 percent [+]
Housing Index 101.00 101 99.5 101 99.95 103 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 87184.00 99100 26300 48200 47311 107200 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.70 83.8 83.9 83.9 78.43 84.1 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 33 33 33 33 34 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 34.66 36.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.66 22.41 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 15.95 13.71 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 24.00 49.29 49.28 49.28 49.28 49.28 mm [+]
Temperature 4.00 4.64 6.52 11.15 9.31 6.18 celsius [+]