Poland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.50 7.5 7.3 7 7.4 6.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 percent
Balance of Trade 109.00 200 800 -82.3 140 550 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 54.10 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 45.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3.41
3.48 3.56 3.64 3.72 4.06
Stock Market 66437.64
points
64438 62498 60618 58791 46039
Government Bond 10Y 3.29
percent
3.48 3.51 3.55 3.45 3.92
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.90
percent
3.4 3.3 3 2.9 2.4
GDP 469.51
USD Billion
528 528 468 528 564
GDP Constant Prices 476489.50
PLN Million
572000 583000 469910 595000 625000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 81915.30
PLN Million
53700 77200 81203 148000 154000
GDP per capita 15048.98
USD
16200 16200 16200 16200 17200
GDP per capita PPP 26003.01
USD
26700 26700 26353 26700 28300
Gdp From Agriculture 9132.60
PLN Million
9995 9709 9449 9812 9624
Gdp From Construction 36946.40
PLN Million
19565 29588 36362 37156 36480
Gdp From Manufacturing 83840.80
PLN Million
89784 78365 83437 95293 91581
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.50
percent
7.5 7.3 7 7.4 6.8
Employed Persons 16510.00
Thousand
16700 16800 16451 16800 17600
Unemployed Persons 1083.04
Thousand
1140 1130 1165 1100 1020
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50
percent
1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.00
percent
13.2 13 13.59 13 12
Labour Costs 103.40
Index Points
106 104 106 102 106
Productivity 113.10
Index Points
108 110 113 138 146
Job Vacancies 105.10
Thousand
96.41 90.83 85.87 59.4 65.8
Wages 4255.59
PLN/Month
4500 4600 4344 4700 4850
Wages in Manufacturing 4422.07
PLN/Month
4400 4500 4369 4600 4750
Wage Growth 7.30
percent
4 3.6 6.49 3 2.5
Minimum Wages 453.48
EUR/Month
470 470 452 470 500
Population 37.97
Million
37.91 37.91 37.91 37.91 37.84
Retirement Age Women 60.58
60.58 60.58 61 60.58 60.58
Retirement Age Men 65.58
65.58 65.58 66 65.58 65.58
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.70
percent
56.7 56.8 56.74 57 59
Part Time Employment 1079.60
Thousand
1230 1240 1082 1290 1490
Employment Change 4.60
percent
4.4 4.2 3.53 4 3.2
Employment Rate 66.20
percent
65.2 65.3 66.15 66 68
Full Time Employment 15078.70
Thousand
15800 15900 15019 16100 17100
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.4 0.5 0.16 0.6 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 173.40
Index Points
178 180 176 185 196
Core Consumer Prices 100.89
Index Points
108 110 101 113 124
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2
GDP Deflator 110.10
Index Points
111 112 112 115 126
Producer Prices 109.20
Index Points
118 120 109 124 136
Producer Prices Change 1.80
percent
4.3 3.2 2.18 4.1 2.2
Export Prices 104.70
Index Points
102 102 137 101 103
Import Prices 100.40
Index Points
102 102 137 103 103
Food Inflation 5.40
percent
3.6 3.2 3 2.6 2.7
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.20
Index Points
108 110 103 115 126
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2
Interbank Rate 1.62
percent
1.83 1.99 2 2 2.5
Money Supply M0 239311.60
PLN Million
245000 249000 236472 262000 295000
Money Supply M1 874442.38
PLN Million
925000 944000 902877 1046000 1400000
Money Supply M2 1284960.22
PLN Million
1570000 1660000 1317375 1750000 2260000
Money Supply M3 1295827.09
PLN Million
1670000 1760000 1326059 1880000 2450000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 113278.90
USD Million
110500 111000 113191 114000 125000
Banks Balance Sheet 1830087.00
PLN Million
2070000 2140000 1837745 2250000 2620000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.55 0.62 0.71 1 1.5
Private Debt to GDP 127.34
percent
122 122 126 122 118
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50
percent
3.52 3.53 3.54 3.55 3.64
Central Bank Balance Sheet 431688.70
PLN Million
528000 534000 425678 544000 654000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 109.00
EUR Million
200 800 -82.3 140 550
Exports 18234.00
EUR Million
15500 15600 17466 14480 15440
Imports 18134.00
EUR Million
15300 14800 17245 14340 14890
Current Account 233.00
EUR Million
-220 -540 -712 -37 223
Current Account to GDP -0.30
percent
-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1
External Debt 369450.00
USD Million
374000 378000 366170 379000 397000
Terms of Trade 104.30
Index Points
103 102 101 103 101
Capital Flows 1154.00
EUR Million
-910 850 -345 -560 -270
Foreign Direct Investment 176005.00
EUR Million
185200 186000 169160 186800 194300
Remittances 1050.00
EUR Million
1220 1250 949 1290 1450
Gold Reserves 102.97
Tonnes
103 103 103 103 103
Terrorism Index 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Weapons Sales 3.00
USD Million
45.59 54.7 63.81 72.91 87.46
Crude Oil Production 22.00
BBL/D/1K
22 22 17.7 22 22
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.10
percent
49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 45.1
Government Budget -2.50
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.5
Government Budget Value -2412.20
PLN Million
-4900 -16900 -11968 -51700 -51600
Government Spending 83726.30
PLN Million
79100 84600 83187 112000 119000
Government Spending to GDP 41.30
percent
41 41 42.75 41 41
Government Revenues 323263.30
PLN Million
82300 159100 103858 304000 327000
Government Debt 932008.32
PLN Million
975000 985000 927948 998000 1152000
Fiscal Expenditure 325675.50
PLN Million
87200 176000 121921 355700 378600
Military Expenditure 9790.70
USD Million
10119 10092 10064 10036 9346
Asylum Applications 165.00
persons
350 370 635 370 340
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 3.50
Index Points
8.6 9 3.24 11 8
Manufacturing PMI 55.00
53.2 53.6 52.28 53.5 53
Industrial Production 9.10
percent
4.9 4.4 7.35 2.8 2.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.50
percent
-0.6 0.5 0.47 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production 10.90
percent
4.4 4 9.17 2.8 2
Capacity Utilization 81.40
percent
81 79.9 79.58 82 84
New Orders 118.80
Index Points
105 106 114 104 105
Changes in Inventories 7111.00
PLN Million
4827 3751 3351 2720 2050
Car Production 43.60
Thousand Units
59.9 60.2 42.89 38.4 40.5
Car Registrations 41210.00
Cars
50200 39200 31568 45900 53900
Internet Speed 12609.78
KBps
12573 12505 12406 12290 11220
IP Addresses 6362131.00
IP
6300066 6287813 6277347 6266516 6196190
Steel Production 845.00
Thousand Tonnes
880 650 833 578 584
Mining Production -14.80
percent
2.4 2.5 -2.25 1.9 1.3
Cement Production 1486.00
Thousands of Tonnes
1500 1620 1320 1140 1360
Competitiveness Index 4.59
Points
4.59 4.59 4.54 4.59 4.68
Competitiveness Rank 39.00
39 35 39 35 33
Ease of Doing Business 27.00
23 23 32 23 21
Electricity Production 14495.00
Gigawatt-hour
14500 12900 13416 15100 15400
Corporate Profits 90055.10
PLN Million
45200 95200 117944 166000 179000
Corruption Index 62.00
Points
64 64 61 64 66
Corruption Rank 29.00
30 30 30 28 26
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 2.10
Index Points
3.6 2.9 -0.12 2 1
Retail Sales MoM 1.60
percent
0.8 -0.6 0.37 -0.2 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 10.20
percent
4.2 3.6 8.05 2.3 1.9
Consumer Spending 287005.30
PLN Million
289000 275000 283618 269000 284000
Personal Savings -12.55
percent
-6.6 2.8 3.26 14.5 15.7
Consumer Credit 676459.07
PLN Million
699000 705000 675405 717000 758000
Gasoline Prices 1.28
USD/Liter
1.28 1.28 1.27 1.14 1.18
Households Debt To Gdp 36.30
percent of GDP
34.9 34.9 35.59 34.9 34.1
Households Debt To Income 60.61
percent
56.7 56.7 60.22 56.7 56
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 16.00
percent
3.2 3 7.85 2.8 2.6
Housing Index 105.44
Index Points
108 109 110 112 120
Building Permits 106712.00
26300 48200 50584 101200 107200
Home Ownership Rate 83.40
percent
83.9 83.9 80.85 83.9 84.1
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00
percent
33 33 33 33 34
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 36.12
percent
36.12 36.12 35 36.12 36.12
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.41
percent
22.41 22.41 22.01 22.41 22.41
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.71
percent
13.71 13.71 14.78 13.71 13.71
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 24.66
mm
32.85 56.99 70.48 42.83 51.92
Temperature 4.28
celsius
-1.72 12.34 16.53 2.85 7.66