Poland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.10 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.5 percent
Balance of Trade 98.00 200 500 300 500 300 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 50.60 49.4 49.4 47.6 47.6 45.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3.74
3.86 3.95 4.05 4.14 4.55
Stock Market 56585.50
points
54782 53033 51341 49706 43662
Government Bond 10Y 3.12
percent
3.44 3.59 3.74 3.9 4.6
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60
percent
0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.20
percent
4.4 4.3 4 3.8 3.2
GDP 524.51
USD Billion
551 551 564 564 575
GDP Constant Prices 476489.50
PLN Million
498084 586919 495549 484637 627506
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 81915.30
PLN Million
83717 148186 85192 78940 158434
GDP per capita 15751.23
USD
16200 16200 16700 16700 17200
GDP per capita PPP 27216.44
USD
26700 26700 27500 27500 28300
Gdp From Agriculture 10625.20
PLN Million
9334 11082 11050 9862 11848
Gdp From Construction 44425.60
PLN Million
37740 46336 46203 31234 49540
Gdp From Manufacturing 111187.40
PLN Million
85685 115968 115635 79974 123988
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1
Employed Persons 16344.00
Thousand
16900 17100 17200 17300 18000
Unemployed Persons 969.04
Thousand
995 991 989 989 980
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10
percent
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90
percent
12.6 12.5 12.2 12 10
Labour Costs 111.80
Index Points
116 103 106 105 106
Productivity 117.50
Index Points
115 139 114 118 146
Job Vacancies 112.10
Thousand
115 75 115 130 85
Wages 4622.84
PLN/Month
4650 4700 4750 4650 4850
Wages in Manufacturing 4534.79
PLN/Month
4500 4600 4600 4550 4750
Wage Growth 7.50
percent
6.1 5.1 4.5 4.2 3
Minimum Wages 502.75
EUR/Month
525 525 560 560 625
Population 37.98
Million
37.98 37.98 38 38 38.06
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.00
percent
56.5 56.4 56.3 56.6 56.2
Part Time Employment 1044.50
Thousand
1150 1170 1190 1200 1320
Employment Change 3.70
percent
3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2
Employment Rate 66.60
percent
66.7 66.8 66.9 66.9 67.5
Full Time Employment 14965.10
Thousand
15600 15700 15800 15900 16900
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
1.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 174.80
Index Points
174 177 177 179 186
Core Consumer Prices 100.62
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
Core Inflation Rate 0.60
percent
1.5 1.9 2 2 2.2
GDP Deflator 110.32
Index Points
113 115 116 117 126
Producer Prices 104.90
Index Points
106 105 106 107 110
Producer Prices Change 3.70
percent
3.2 2.2 2.3 2 2.2
Export Prices 100.80
Index Points
102 102 102 102 103
Import Prices 99.80
Index Points
102 103 103 102 103
Food Inflation 2.70
percent
3 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.3
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.80
Index Points
103 104 104 105 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.5
Interbank Rate 1.60
percent
1.6 1.85 1.85 2.1 2.6
Money Supply M0 229477.30
PLN Million
252000 262000 265000 269000 295000
Money Supply M1 912150.43
PLN Million
975000 1046000 1091000 1141000 1400000
Money Supply M2 1331452.95
PLN Million
1690000 1750000 1810000 1870000 2260000
Money Supply M3 1346708.10
PLN Million
1820000 1880000 1950000 2030000 2450000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 108969.50
USD Million
112300 114000 114000 115000 125000
Banks Balance Sheet 1909576.40
PLN Million
2150000 2250000 2290000 2330000 2620000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1.5
Private Debt to GDP 121.50
percent
119 119 115 115 111
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50
percent
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 418752.60
PLN Million
438000 444000 451000 462000 554000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 98.00
EUR Million
200 500 300 500 300
Exports 17251.00
EUR Million
17700 15600 18900 18100 17200
Imports 17153.00
EUR Million
17500 15100 18600 17600 16900
Current Account 42.00
EUR Million
250 -37 -200 -480 220
Current Account to GDP 0.30
percent
-0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.5 1
External Debt 392174.00
USD Million
376000 379000 381000 383000 397000
Terms of Trade 101.00
Index Points
99.61 98.93 99.03 99.51 100
Capital Flows 765.00
EUR Million
-420 -560 -320 910 -270
Foreign Direct Investment 176005.00
EUR Million
186800 186800 190700 190700 194300
Remittances 684.00
EUR Million
700 685 710 720 770
Gold Reserves 103.00
Tonnes
103 103 103 103 103
Terrorism Index 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Weapons Sales 3.00
USD Million
5 5 5 5 5
Crude Oil Production 21.00
BBL/D/1K
21 21 21 21 21
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 50.60
percent
49.4 49.4 47.6 47.6 45.1
Government Budget -1.70
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2
Government Budget Value 9585.40
PLN Million
-3000 -10700 -1600 -2900 -11600
Government Spending 83726.30
PLN Million
83499 111112 87075 87867 118795
Government Spending to GDP 41.20
percent
41 41 41 41 41
Government Revenues 154008.60
PLN Million
259000 345000 87500 175100 367000
Government Debt 948739.96
PLN Million
991000 998000 1005000 1029000 1152000
Fiscal Expenditure 144423.20
PLN Million
262000 355700 89100 178000 378600
Military Expenditure 9518.90
USD Million
9948 10211 10270 10329 10677
Asylum Applications 175.00
persons
220 370 290 300 340
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 13.30
Index Points
11 10 9 9 5
Manufacturing PMI 54.20
53.8 53.6 53 53.4 53
Industrial Production 6.80
percent
5.1 4.9 4.5 4.4 3.2
Industrial Production Mom 1.90
percent
-0.3 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production 5.50
percent
4.5 4.4 4 3.7 2.5
Capacity Utilization 82.80
percent
82.7 82.8 82.9 83 84
New Orders 104.60
Index Points
106 104 102 107 105
Changes in Inventories 7111.00
PLN Million
7707 2720 7696 9119 2050
Car Production 43.40
Thousand Units
40 29 62 66 40
Car Registrations 42354.00
38200 45900 51500 40500 53900
Internet Speed 12609.78
KBps
12477 12550 12518 12502 12584
IP Addresses 6362131.00
IP
6261122 6254363 6248466 6242679 6204256
Steel Production 855.00
Thousand Tonnes
880 578 890 700 584
Mining Production -2.20
percent
2.2 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.3
Cement Production 1942.00
Thousands of Tonnes
1720 1140 1510 1650 1360
Competitiveness Index 4.59
Points
4.59 4.59 4.64 4.64 4.68
Competitiveness Rank 39.00
39 39 38 38 37
Ease of Doing Business 27.00
26 26 25 25 24
Electricity Production 12667.00
Gigawatt-hour
13600 15100 14600 13200 15400
Corporate Profits 42970.00
PLN Million
132400 166000 49100 99100 179000
Corruption Index 60.00
Points
61 61 62 62 63
Corruption Rank 36.00
35 35 34 34 33
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 6.10
Index Points
4 3.8 3.6 3.2 1.5
Retail Sales MoM -0.10
percent
0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 7.60
percent
6.5 5.9 4.5 4 2.5
Consumer Spending 287005.30
PLN Million
297577 291324 298486 287367 311470
Personal Savings 2.10
percent
2 14.5 -8.1 3 15.7
Consumer Credit 700612.36
PLN Million
711000 717000 722000 727000 758000
Gasoline Prices 1.36
USD/Liter
1.29 1.22 1.15 1.09 0.61
Households Debt To Gdp 35.10
percent of GDP
34.9 34.9 34.4 34.4 34.1
Households Debt To Income 59.94
percent
56.7 56.7 56.2 56.2 56
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 23.30
percent
9.5 7.8 6.2 5.8 3.2
Housing Index 109.48
Index Points
110 110 112 113 115
Building Permits 37581.00
91400 118200 27900 61500 132200
Home Ownership Rate 83.40
percent
83 83 82.7 82.7 82.5
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00
percent
32 32 32 32 32
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 36.12
percent
36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.41
percent
22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.71
percent
13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 24.66
mm
70.48 42.83 32.92 50.22 51.92
Temperature 4.28
celsius
16.53 2.85 -1.72 11.32 7.66