Poland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.9 0.8 1 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.70 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 6.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -218.00 100 400 170 200 550 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.40 51.4 51.4 51.4 49.4 45.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.74 4.01 4.05 4.17 4.13 4.76 [+]
Stock Market 60907.75 57700 57200 55400 56000 46700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.20 3.41 3.45 3.48 3.52 4.06 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.9 0.8 1 0.9 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00 3.3 3.1 3.2 3 2.4 percent [+]
GDP 477.07 508 508 508 528 564 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 523561.80 546000 557000 566000 572000 625000 PLN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131598.60 79200 86400 146000 90111 154000 PLN Million [+]
GDP per capita 14655.20 15500 15600 15700 15800 17200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25322.54 25900 26000 26100 26200 28300 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 11220.40 10836 9984 11216 10814 10971 PLN Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 37823.20 30440 30239 30270 30265 30266 PLN Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 101408.60 85488 85219 85182 85177 85176 PLN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.70 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 6.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 16281.00 16400 16500 16600 16700 17600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1252.70 1300 1290 1290 1280 1120 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90 2 2 1.8 1.8 1.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.40 14 13.8 13.6 13.4 12 percent [+]
Productivity 130.90 109 106 134 108 146 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 95.10 104 108 99.5 106 106 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 99.90 95.6 98.4 55.6 93.4 65.8 Thousand [+]
Wages 4353.55 4170 4200 4240 4260 4520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 4261.82 4210 4240 4270 4280 4540 PLN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 4.10 4.8 4.6 4.4 4 2.5 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 453.48 453 453 453 470 500 EUR/Month [+]
Population 38.42 38.32 38.32 38.31 38.3 38.14 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.58 60.58 60.58 60 60.41 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.58 65.58 65.58 65 65.41 65 [+]
Employment Change 4.60 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 3.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 65.10 65 65.1 65.1 65.2 68 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 14959.80 15400 15600 15700 15800 17100 Thousand [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2040.00 2225 2270 2270 2275 2520 PLN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4340.00 4450 4500 4500 4286 4860 PLN/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 1054.20 1180 1200 1220 1230 1490 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.30 56.4 56.5 56.6 56.7 59 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 2796.60 4590 4620 4620 3045 4790 PLN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2466.80 2660 2710 2710 2477 2940 PLN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 171.40 172 174 176 178 196 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.86 102 104 106 108 124 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.86 0.7 0.9 1 1.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 107.10 108 109 110 111 126 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 108.70 112 114 116 118 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.30 5.6 6.2 5.2 4.3 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 101.40 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 105.10 101 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.80 3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.60 102 104 106 108 126 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 2.43 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 220371.60 228000 231101 241000 237917 292000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 811904.59 846000 848347 907000 888745 1400000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1246275.19 1420000 1279784 1590000 1318909 2260000 PLN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1256400.30 1430000 1290943 1600000 1330348 2270000 PLN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 109417.90 109700 108667 110000 108570 125000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1812706.00 1910000 1854862 2020000 1895313 2620000 PLN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 468852.60 507000 485346 522000 498495 654000 PLN Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 122.51 122 122 122 122 119 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -218.00 100 400 170 200 550 EUR Million [+]
Exports 17798.00 15300 15500 14220 15500 15440 EUR Million [+]
Imports 18016.00 15200 15100 14050 15300 14890 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -738.00 -695 -778 -178 -220 223 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.20 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 1 percent [+]
External Debt 335941.00 364000 368800 372000 374000 397000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 96.50 101 101 103 103 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -916.00 1120 -420 -870 325 -270 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167091.00 176300 179400 183000 185200 194300 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 1190.00 1232 1253 1245 1258 1253 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 102.96 103 103 103 103 103 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 22.00 19 20.06 19 20.06 19 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Weapons Sales 14.00 31.15 22.66 14.16 18.47 44.72 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.40 51.4 51.4 51.4 49.4 45.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -867.90 -20100 -15400 -49400 -4900 -51600 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending 105148.30 84100 83800 107000 92572 119000 PLN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.30 42.5 41.85 42.8 42.08 43.9 percent [+]
Government Revenues 117011.80 154400 242600 295000 82300 327000 PLN Million [+]
Government Debt 941428.34 932000 961268 947500 979735 1052400 PLN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 117879.70 174500 258000 344400 87200 378600 PLN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 320.00 450 520 390 350 340 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 12603.20 11850 12526 13202 13425 15905 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 8.10 4.8 7.75 7.7 8.6 8 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.10 54.7 54.1 52.2 53.2 53 [+]
Industrial Production -0.60 4.1 3.33 4.4 4 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.10 0.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.80 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.50 80.4 80.48 81 79.63 84 percent [+]
New Orders 101.00 102 104 103 105 105 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 9513.00 3840 10375 3150 10044 2050 PLN Million [+]
Car Production 49.70 59.8 41.6 37.6 55.87 40.5 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 39476.00 38700 30100 41400 38979 53900 Cars [+]
Cement Production 1505.00 1640 1590 1050 1262 1360 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.56 4.59 4.68 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 36.00 36 36 36 35 33 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 24.00 24 24 24 23 21 [+]
Electricity Production 14431.00 12700 13700 15000 13931 15400 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corporate Profits 154837.80 90700 125100 162000 45200 179000 PLN Million [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 63 63 63 64 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 29 29 29 28 26 [+]
Steel Production 815.00 642 790 574 767 584 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -5.90 -6.4 -5.8 -3.2 -1.1 1.3 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 3.10 -6 -4.2 -2.3 4.23 0.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 -0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 8.10 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.2 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 260397.50 274000 279000 264000 272249 284000 PLN Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.49 2.5 6.5 14.1 -6.6 15.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 666414.20 679000 674301 692000 683877 758000 PLN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.15 1.09 1.17 1.1 1.17 1.18 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 36.50 35.8 35.6 35.4 35.2 34.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 60.61 57.3 57.2 57 56.8 56 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 13.00 -2.8 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 100.60 100 101 101 99.5 103 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 34796.00 47200 52161 91100 48524 97200 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.70 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.9 84.1 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 36.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 22.41 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 13.71 percent [+]