The economy of Macau advanced 2.1% yoy in Q4 2018, higher than an upwardly revised 1.9% expansion in Q3 which was the weakest since a contraction in 2016. Service trade remained the major driving force of economic growth. Exports of services rose 5.2% (6.2% in Q3) while shipments of goods rebounded (10.2% vs -8.1% in Q3). Also, imports of services shrank 1.7% (+1.7% in Q3) and those of goods went up 2.3% (0.9% in Q3). On the other hand, slowdown was observed for private consumption (2.8% vs 4.2%), government spending (3.4% vs 5.7%) and inventories (12.1% vs 16.1%). Also, investment continued to fall (-14.3% vs -21.4%) as private investment shrank 20.4%, due to notable drop in large-scale construction projects while public investment went up 4%. Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 4.7%, below 9.7% in 2017. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau averaged 8.87 percent from 2002 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 54.30 percent in the second quarter of 2004 and a record low of -24.60 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau is expected to be 2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau to stand at 3.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 3.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.