Macau's GDP shrank 1.8 percent year-on-year in Q2 2019, after a 3.2 percent contraction in the prior period. It was the second straight quarterly decline, as fixed investment continued to slid (-25% vs -31.7% in Q1), owing to a 30.1% fall in construction investment. Public investment in construction plunged 51.6%, as a result of the relatively high comparison basis due to the huge investment launched by the government in the same period last year in the completion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge Artificial Border Island. Also, private investment slid by 19.3% on lower investment in large-scale construction projects and a drop in number of new residential projects. Meantime, total exports fell (-0.3% vs -0.4%), dragged down by goods (-24.4%) and gaming services (-0.8%). Total imports also slumped (-4.6% vs -5.0%), namely goods (-0.8) and services (-13.7%). In contrast, private consumption (2.2% vs 2.1%) and government spending (5.7% vs 4.1%) advanced faster. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau averaged 8.54 percent from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 54.30 percent in the second quarter of 2004 and a record low of -24.60 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau to stand at 3.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 3.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.