Retail sales in Macau rose 2.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a downwardly revised 10.8 percent increase in the previous quarter. It was the lowest growth rate since the third quarter 2016, when sales fell by 2.7 percent. Sales increased softer for: communication (13.1 percent vs 24.8 percent in Q3); goods in department stores (7.5 percent vs 16.5 percent); watches, clothes & jewelry (1.6 percent vs 4.5 percent); leather goods (4.3 percent vs 21.3 percent), and goods in supermarkets (3.9 percent vs 5.8 percent). On the other hand, sales went up faster for both automotive fuels (6.3 percent vs 5.3 percent) and cosmetics & sanitary articles (14.9 percent vs 8.7 percent). In addition, sales fell for motor vehicles (-5.4 percent vs 16 percent); adult's clothing (-6.3 percent vs 12 percent). For 2018 full year, retail sales grew by 13.8 percent year-on-year, compared to a 12.6 percent in 2017. Retail Sales YoY in Macau averaged 16.56 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 49.95 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and a record low of -8.50 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Retail Sales YoY in Macau is expected to be 20.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Macau to stand at 22.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 29.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.