Retail sales in Macau rose 11.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, following a 21.3 percent jump in the previous quarter. It was the lowest growth rate since the second quarter 2017, as sales went up softer for: communication (24.8 percent vs 70.4 percent in Q2); motor vehicles (16 percent vs 27.6 percent); adult's clothing (12 percent vs 17.9 percent); goods in department stores (16.5 percent vs 27.3 percent); watches, clothes & jewelry (4.5 percent vs 18.3 percent); leather goods (21.3 percent vs 37 percent); automotive fuels (5.3 percent vs 8.5 percent) and cosmetics & sanitary articles (8.7 percent vs 11 percent). On the other hand, sales rebounded for goods in supermarkets (5.8 percent vs -0.4 percent in Q2). Considering the first three quarters of the year retail sales grew by 18.5 percent year-on-year. Retail Sales YoY in Macau averaged 16.76 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 49.95 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and a record low of -8.50 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Retail Sales YoY in Macau is expected to be 26.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Macau to stand at 21.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 29.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.