Kazakhstan Maintains Base Rate at 18% in January

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on April 24, 2026, maintaining a tight policy stance as inflation remained elevated despite continued disinflation. Annual inflation slowed to 11% in March from 11.7% in February, while monthly inflation moderated to 0.6% from 1.1%, supported by restrictive monetary conditions, a stronger tenge, slower consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures. Still, the central bank noted inflation pressures remain above its 5% target, while inflation expectations stayed high at 14.6%. The prolonged Middle East conflict also raised concerns over higher global prices for energy, food, and fertilizers. The economy grew 3% in the first quarter, supported by strong activity in construction, transport, manufacturing, and trade. While policymakers signaled openness to considering rate cuts in future decisions if current trends hold, they stressed that more evidence of sustainable disinflation is needed.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on March 6, 2026, citing still-elevated inflation despite ongoing disinflation. Annual inflation eased to 11.7% in February from 12.2% in January, with price growth slowing across food (12.7%), non-food goods (11.6%), and services (10.8%). The central bank noted that tight monetary conditions, a stronger tenge, slower unsecured consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures have supported the decline in inflation, though monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% in February. Looking ahead, inflation in 2026 is projected at 9.5–11.5%, before slowing to 5.5–7.5% by 2027 and approaching the 5% target in 2028. GDP growth is expected at 3.5–4.5% this year. The central bank said there is currently no room for monetary easing but may consider rate cuts in the second half of 2026 if inflation slows sustainably. The next policy decision is scheduled for April 24, 2026.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on January 23, 2026, in line with market expectations, citing persistently high inflation and strong domestic demand. Headline inflation reached 12.3% at the end of 2025, in line with the central bank's forecasts, largely driven by food prices, while monthly inflation rose 0.9% in December and core inflation remained elevated. Inflation expectations increased, with households projecting 14.7% over the next year and market participants anticipating 10.8% for 2026. While a stronger tenge and tighter financial conditions have supported disinflation, upside risks linger, including the effects of fuel price liberalization, tariff reforms, tax changes, and the planned quasi-fiscal stimulus. The central bank indicated the policy rate is likely to stay at its current level through the first half of 2026. The next rate decision is due on March 6, 2026.