Kazakhstan Holds Key Rate at 18% in November

The Central Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its key policy rate by 100bps to 17% at its June 2026 meeting, marking the first reduction in borrowing costs since mid-2024 and surprising markets, which had broadly expected rates to remain unchanged. Policymakers noted that inflation continued to ease, slowing to 10.4% in May. The central bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast downward to 9–11% from 9.5–11.5%, due to a faster-than-expected deceleration in price growth, the limited pass-through of the VAT increase to consumer prices, and the appreciation of the tenge. Inflation is now projected to slow further to 5.5–7.5% in 2027 and converge to the central bank's 5% target in 2028. Meanwhile, the GDP growth forecast for 2026 was upgraded to 4.5–5.5%. Despite the rate cut, policymakers emphasized that monetary conditions must remain moderately restrictive to ensure inflation falls into single digits this year and returns to the medium-term target

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on April 24, 2026, maintaining a tight policy stance as inflation remained elevated despite continued disinflation. Annual inflation slowed to 11% in March from 11.7% in February, while monthly inflation moderated to 0.6% from 1.1%, supported by restrictive monetary conditions, a stronger tenge, slower consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures. Still, the central bank noted inflation pressures remain above its 5% target, while inflation expectations stayed high at 14.6%. The prolonged Middle East conflict also raised concerns over higher global prices for energy, food, and fertilizers. The economy grew 3% in the first quarter, supported by strong activity in construction, transport, manufacturing, and trade. While policymakers signaled openness to considering rate cuts in future decisions if current trends hold, they stressed that more evidence of sustainable disinflation is needed.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on March 6, 2026, citing still-elevated inflation despite ongoing disinflation. Annual inflation eased to 11.7% in February from 12.2% in January, with price growth slowing across food (12.7%), non-food goods (11.6%), and services (10.8%). The central bank noted that tight monetary conditions, a stronger tenge, slower unsecured consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures have supported the decline in inflation, though monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% in February. Looking ahead, inflation in 2026 is projected at 9.5–11.5%, before slowing to 5.5–7.5% by 2027 and approaching the 5% target in 2028. GDP growth is expected at 3.5–4.5% this year. The central bank said there is currently no room for monetary easing but may consider rate cuts in the second half of 2026 if inflation slows sustainably. The next policy decision is scheduled for April 24, 2026.