Kazakhstan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5.1 5 5.3 5.3 percent
Inflation Rate 6.80 6.6 6.4 6.2 6 4.7 percent
Interest Rate 9.75 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.5 6.5 percent
Balance of Trade 2421.00 900 1100 1865 1300 1000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 21.10 21 21 20.2 21 18 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 319.61
334 339 344 349 370
Stock Market 2326.74
points
2277 2207 2138 2072 1609
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30
percent
3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.8
GDP 133.66
USD Billion
195 195 143 195 220
GDP Constant Prices 34083.94
KZT Billion
15000 15000 33888 54000 72000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6946.00
KZT Billion
13066 15187 16780 17999 23799
GDP per capita 10570.50
USD
10553 10555 10557 10560 9395
GDP per capita PPP 23419.90
USD
23382 23386 23391 23396 20815
Gross National Product 46193380.60
KZT Million
45358755 46566036 47773316 48980596 55916634
Gdp From Agriculture 1568223.10
KZT Million
220000 520000 1571127 2450000 2900000
Gdp From Construction 1952854.70
KZT Million
350901 1300699 1945863 3082158 3698867
Gdp From Manufacturing 4039101.70
KZT Billion
1444873 2514254 3993413 5825627 6483923
Gdp From Mining 4901352.10
KZT Billion
1721930 3167677 4814215 6169321 6795161
Gdp From Public Administration 820716.80
KZT Million
275000 490000 821097 920000 1000000
Gdp From Services 19690313.00
KZT Million
6100000 14500000 19609197 39000000 59000000
Gdp From Transport 2687688.70
KZT Million
1050000 1900000 2673382 4000000 4500000
Gdp From Utilities 727791.60
KZT Million
250000 470000 724341 900000 934000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90
percent
5.1 5.1 5 5.3 5.3
Unemployed Persons 440.30
Thousand
443 446 450 453 489
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.16 2.24 2.25 2.24 2.43
Wages 168220.00
KZT/Month
150000 150000 155134 167000 184000
Minimum Wages 24459.00
KZT/Monthly
25459 25459 25459 25459 30000
Population 17.92
Million
18.8 18.8 18.69 18.8 19.7
Living Wage Family 113900.00
KZT/Month
113900 113900 113900 113900 113900
Living Wage Individual 83600.00
KZT/Month
83600 83600 83600 83600 83600
Employed Persons 8541.30
Thousand
8700 8700 8566 8700 8900
Wages High Skilled 135100.00
KZT/Month
118651 117665 116679 115692 118873
Wages In Manufacturing 189386.00
KZT/Month
159000 159000 161983 191000 210000
Wages Low Skilled 71900.00
KZT/Month
65690 66473 67256 68039 64996
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
3.91 4.05 4.02 3.97 4.27
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.80
percent
6.6 6.4 6.2 6 4.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 717.90
Index Points
733 735 734 754 831
Core Inflation Rate 6.42
percent
6.8 6.8 7.46 6.5 5.3
Producer Prices 1022.84
Index Points
924 928 1013 942 980
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70
percent
0.56 0.59 0.63 0.9 0.5
Import Prices 99.80
Index Points
101 99.8 101 101 101
GDP Deflator 113.60
Index Points
120 120 121 128 143
Food Inflation 5.60
percent
5.7 5.5 5.1 5 5.1
Export Prices 103.40
Index Points
102 102 101 100 96
CPI Transportation 111.20
Index Points
114 114 109 120 140
Producer Prices Change 12.20
percent
8.98 8.6 9.62 11.6 12.38
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 9.75
percent
9.75 9.25 8.75 8.5 6.5
Money Supply M0 1946338.00
KZT Million
1972123 1977941 1974651 1970154 1915068
Money Supply M1 4967695.00
KZT Million
4849805 4812646 4790922 4772021 4559680
Money Supply M2 13513426.00
KZT Million
13317826 13238014 13193911 13160843 12826713
Money Supply M3 19456023.00
KZT Million
19012953 18806045 18693843 18620677 18074336
Foreign Exchange Reserves 31724.00
USD Million
32650 33650 31217 34054 36154
Banks Balance Sheet 24161393163.00
KZT Thousand
26200000000 27000000000 23741647050 27000000000 31000000000
Interbank Rate 10.75
percent
9 9 9.8 8 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7392940.00
KZT Million
7120000 728000 7161304 7580000 9080000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 2421.00
USD Million
900 1100 1865 1300 1000
Exports 5220.00
USD Million
3300 3600 4724 4600 5100
Imports 2799.00
USD Million
2600 2500 2640 3300 4100
Current Account -80.90
USD Million
-700 -200 -529 800 1200
Current Account to GDP -6.00
percent
-1.8 -1.8 -6.7 -1.8 -0.5
External Debt 168928.00
USD Million
170559 170982 171220 171300 165783
Capital Flows -2860.30
USD Million
-1152 -628 -508 -284 203
Gold Reserves 295.66
Tonnes
303 309 313 317 327
Crude Oil Production 1805.00
BBL/D/1K
1700 1700 1769 1700 1700
Foreign Direct Investment 5164.60
USD Million
4700 5500 5023 3900 4300
Terrorism Index 2.95
1.57 1.91 2.25 2.59 1.61
Remittances 100.00
USD Million
74.83 78.31 84.32 82.9 71.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.10
percent
21 21 20.2 21 18
Government Budget -1.60
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.5
Government Budget Value -1356975.10
KZT Million
-230000 -620000 -447798 -750000 -680000
Government Spending 4045454.30
KZT Million
1800000 3400000 4002884 5500000 5900000
Government Revenues 11567691.50
KZT Million
2700000 4900000 5661113 15000000 21000000
Government Debt 16923846.00
USD Thousand
14491800 14949200 15152200 15829400 18505800
Military Expenditure 1504.30
USD Million
3000 3000 1603 3000 3500
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 4.00
Index Points
7 9 6.45 8 9
Industrial Production 5.20
percent
4.7 5.3 5.11 6.2 5.5
Industrial Production Mom -14.70
percent
4.4 -0.3 0.88 0.68 0.7
Manufacturing Production 6.20
percent
4.1 6.8 5.34 7.9 4.5
Changes in Inventories 1988410.00
KZT Million
425000 1640000 1875702 2130000 2260000
Internet Speed 10581.80
KBps
13163 13821 14319 14614 14824
IP Addresses 1522517.00
IP
1492851 1478602 1463014 1446745 1267276
Leading Economic Index 4.70
percent
3.8 4.4 3.66 3.1 1.8
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points
4.48 4.48 4.38 4.48 5.1
Competitiveness Rank 57.00
50 50 61 50 47
Car Registrations 3853048.00
3860000 3950000 3742551 3860000 3890000
Cement Production 427.80
Thousands of Tonnes
620 1110 786 570 620
Copper Production 39641.00
Tonnes
38500 37000 33836 38100 42200
Ease of Doing Business 36.00
38 39 40 41 51
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
31 31 27 31 33
Corruption Rank 131.00
129 129 129 129 127
Mining Production 4.50
percent
5.1 4.2 5.75 7.6 3.8
Steel Production 360.00
Thousand Tonnes
380 430 358 520 570
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 79.00
Index Points
79 77 77.62 85 90
Retail Sales Mom -42.10
percent
12.47 -3.54 1.22 1.29 1.6
Retail Sales Yoy 4.30
percent
5.23 6.41 6.76 7.16 8.53
Consumer Spending 17351925.00
KZT Million
5559000 12480160 17276140 30373359 38780705
Consumer Credit 4540986.00
KZT Million
4070417 4090344 4569306 4127175 4262094
Gasoline Prices 0.55
USD/Liter
0.51 0.51 0.49 0.55 0.61
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 101.20
Index Points
102 103 106 104 110
Construction Output 12.40
percent
6.9 8.7 7.64 8 10.1
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 21 21 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 11 11 11
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
31 31 13 31 31
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.00
percent
31 31 13.07 31 31
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 37.87
mm
16.81 24.89 21.44 20.96 21.49
Temperature -3.30
celsius
-10.22 14.38 19.48 -2.8 5.34