Kazakhstan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 4.9 5.3 4.9 5.3 percent
Inflation Rate 6.50 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.7 percent
Interest Rate 9.25 9 8.75 8.5 8 6.5 percent
Balance of Trade 2281.50 1100 1731 1300 1823 1000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 17.40 21 21 21 20 18 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 329.45
324 329 334 338 358
Stock Market 2528.39
points
2342 2270 2200 2133 1883
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10
percent
3.3 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.8
GDP 133.66
USD Billion
195 143 195 205 220
GDP Constant Prices 11572.51
KZT Billion
21281 34663 53320 10573 57283
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 11596.00
KZT Billion
3898 7064 11133 2078 11961
GDP per capita 10570.50
USD
10630 10837 10706 10869 10929
GDP per capita PPP 23419.90
USD
23552 23637 23722 24083 24215
Gross National Product 51966817.40
KZT Million
46955571 46978668 49770042 47856342 53469449
Gdp From Agriculture 2285344.60
KZT Million
530763 1594883 2363046 222133 2538692
Gdp From Construction 2882529.20
KZT Million
1064769 1986053 2980535 378849 3202078
Gdp From Manufacturing 5794667.80
KZT Billion
2603010 4107766 5991687 1385514 6437049
Gdp From Mining 6857123.20
KZT Billion
3292257 4984675 7090265 1590147 7617285
Gdp From Public Administration 1079573.00
KZT Million
419816 834669 1116278 217962 1199251
Gdp From Services 29385664.90
KZT Million
12387507 20025048 30384778 6154048 32643278
Gdp From Transport 4128405.90
KZT Million
1799453 2733379 4268772 935509 4586070
Gdp From Utilities 989451.00
KZT Million
492368 740164 1023092 298512 1099139
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90
percent
5.1 4.9 5.3 4.9 5.3
Unemployed Persons 436.80
Thousand
440 440 440 440 440
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00
percent
2.24 2.26 2.25 2.27 2.43
Wages 152013.00
KZT/Month
150000 155134 167000 170000 184000
Minimum Wages 24459.00
KZT/Monthly
25459 25459 25459 27700 30000
Population 17.92
Million
18.8 18.07 18.8 18.18 19.7
Living Wage Family 113900.00
KZT/Month
115000 115000 115000 118000 118000
Living Wage Individual 83600.00
KZT/Month
83600 83600 83600 83600 83600
Employed Persons 8538.90
Thousand
8700 8572 8700 8572 8900
Wages High Skilled 135100.00
KZT/Month
145100 145100 145100 148100 148100
Wages In Manufacturing 172254.00
KZT/Month
165000 164983 195000 171177 210000
Wages Low Skilled 71900.00
KZT/Month
72700 72700 72700 72700 73700
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 6.50
percent
5.9 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 729.30
Index Points
732 733 750 762 829
Core Inflation Rate 6.24
percent
6.8 6.19 6.5 6.61 5.3
Producer Prices 1032.94
Index Points
1027 1044 1120 1137 1331
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5
Import Prices 100.20
Index Points
99.8 101 101 101 101
GDP Deflator 105.60
Index Points
120 106 128 106 143
Food Inflation 5.10
percent
5.5 5.1 5 5 5.1
Export Prices 101.30
Index Points
102 102 100 101 96
CPI Transportation 110.00
Index Points
114 116 117 116 129
Producer Prices Change 15.80
percent
15 12 11 10 10
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.25
percent
9 8.75 8.5 8 6.5
Money Supply M0 1810244.00
KZT Million
1766135 1766561 1766848 1766868 1766865
Money Supply M1 4807409.00
KZT Million
4840999 4849357 4851063 4849943 4849353
Money Supply M2 13351482.00
KZT Million
13465962 13648863 13843171 14038567 16091796
Money Supply M3 18631041.00
KZT Million
18249540 18059695 17962552 17912090 17856581
Foreign Exchange Reserves 31791.00
USD Million
33650 31686 34054 31573 36154
Banks Balance Sheet 23768636918.00
KZT Thousand
27000000000 24358527188 27000000000 24365233085 31000000000
Interbank Rate 10.25
percent
10 9.75 9.5 9 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 6338617.00
KZT Million
728000 7284900 7580000 7239135 9080000
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2281.50
USD Million
1100 1731 1300 1823 1000
Exports 5004.50
USD Million
3600 4228 4600 4273 5100
Imports 2723.00
USD Million
2500 2497 3300 2450 4100
Current Account -95.20
USD Million
-200 -1328 800 -1210 1200
Current Account to GDP -6.00
percent
-1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1 -0.5
External Debt 167485.00
USD Million
168156 168690 168518 168549 169551
Capital Flows 1202.50
USD Million
775 -4343 407 -4002 -945
Gold Reserves 303.00
Tonnes
309 313 317 321 324
Crude Oil Production 1847.00
BBL/D/1K
1700 1816 1700 1811 1700
Foreign Direct Investment 4883.47
USD Million
5500 5105 3900 5105 4300
Terrorism Index 2.95
2.82 3.2 3.58 3.26 2.37
Remittances 100.24
USD Million
82.3 85.27 88.84 86.13 76.75
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.40
percent
21 21 21 20 18
Government Budget -1.60
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.51 -1.5
Government Budget Value -86402.40
KZT Million
-620000 -1028969 -750000 -725365 -680000
Government Spending 5744570.70
KZT Million
2754914 4114227 5886146 1279702 6323663
Government Revenues 2652773.70
KZT Million
4900000 2590854 15000000 2431362 21000000
Government Debt 17790933.00
USD Thousand
14949200 15152200 15829400 15485262 18505800
Military Expenditure 1183.84
USD Million
3000 1500 3000 1295 3500
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 8.00
Index Points
9 8.03 8 8.03 9
Industrial Production 4.50
percent
5.3 4.9 4.8 4.6 5.5
Industrial Production Mom -2.20
percent
-0.22 0.32 0.18 -0.24 -0.13
Manufacturing Production 4.90
percent
6.8 4.91 7.9 4.64 4.5
Changes in Inventories 2481680.00
KZT Million
1640000 1875702 2130000 921233 2260000
Internet Speed 10581.80
KBps
13821 14319 14614 14975 14824
IP Addresses 1522517.00
IP
1523188 1524544 1525390 1526366 1530076
Leading Economic Index 4.40
percent
4.4 5 5.5 5.2 4.7
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points
4.48 4.38 4.48 4.38 5.1
Competitiveness Rank 57.00
50 55 50 55 47
Car Registrations 3839450.00
3950000 3873870 3860000 3875804 3890000
Cement Production 685.10
Thousands of Tonnes
1110 681 570 540 620
Copper Production 33389.00
Tonnes
37000 34597 38100 35130 42200
Ease of Doing Business 36.00
36 36 36 36 36
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
31 31 31 31 33
Corruption Rank 122.00
129 117 129 113 127
Mining Production 4.40
percent
4.2 9.78 7.6 9.83 3.8
Steel Production 350.00
Thousand Tonnes
430 353 520 353 570
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 81.00
Index Points
77 77.62 85 77.62 90
Retail Sales Mom 0.70
percent
-3.81 -7.83 3.22 5.19 2.08
Retail Sales Yoy 7.10
percent
6.45 6.25 6.19 6.19 6.21
Consumer Spending 26838792.00
KZT Million
11123538 17646908 26451383 5427403 28417514
Consumer Credit 4574472.00
KZT Million
4090344 4570653 4127175 4584060 4262094
Gasoline Prices 0.54
USD/Liter
0.53 0.5 0.47 0.44 0.31
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 102.00
Index Points
103 98.86 104 99.98 110
Construction Output 18.50
percent
8.7 7.64 8 7.62 10.1
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 11 15 31
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.00
percent
31 11 31 11 31
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 37.87
mm
24.89 21.44 20.96 16.84 21.49
Temperature -3.30
celsius
14.38 19.48 -2.8 -10.24 5.34