Kazakhstan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 percent
Inflation Rate 6.00 5.5 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.7 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 9 8.75 8.5 6.5 percent
Balance of Trade 2425.60 2806 2941 3063 3331 3380 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 17.40 17 17 20 20 18 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 356.26
 365 367 369 371 379
Stock Market 2180.71
points		 2209 2187 2166 2144 2061
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10
percent		 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.8
GDP 159.41
USD Billion		 165 165 205 205 220
GDP Constant Prices 24251.00
KZT Billion		 34663 53372 12001 25027 56840
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2180.00
KZT Billion		 7064 12002 2261 2250 12782
GDP per capita 10857.38
USD		 10899 10899 10935 10935 11047
GDP per capita PPP 24055.59
USD		 24410 24410 24483 24483 24563
Gross National Product 51966817.40
KZT Million		 47769660 53785656 53889590 53629756 57281078
Gdp From Agriculture 233697.30
KZT Million		 1594883 2383606 242344 241176 2538512
Gdp From Construction 392042.70
KZT Million		 1986053 2988713 406548 404588 3182944
Gdp From Manufacturing 1501518.20
KZT Billion		 4107766 6014636 1557074 1549567 6405515
Gdp From Mining 1818996.00
KZT Billion		 4984675 7165681 1886299 1877204 7631364
Gdp From Public Administration 214115.10
KZT Million		 834669 1079689 222037 220967 1149856
Gdp From Services 6448630.70
KZT Million		 20025048 30898308 6687230 6654987 32906327
Gdp From Transport 955423.00
KZT Million		 2733379 4418167 990774 985997 4705295
Gdp From Utilities 276433.60
KZT Million		 639999 904299 286662 285279 963067
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90
percent		 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7
Unemployed Persons 442.50
Thousand 		435 437 436 436 434
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20
percent		 2.26 2.1 2 2.1 1.9
Wages 158618.00
KZT/Month		 158900 162000 164000 159750 174000
Minimum Wages 28284.00
KZT/Monthly		 26500 26500 27700 27700 30000
Population 17.92
Million		 18.1 18.1 18.8 18.8 19.3
Living Wage Family 113900.00
KZT/Month		 115000 115000 118000 118000 120000
Living Wage Individual 83600.00
KZT/Month		 85000 85000 86500 86500 87000
Employed Persons 8637.50
Thousand		 8600 8540 8585 8590 8650
Wages High Skilled 135100.00
KZT/Month		 145100 145100 152000 152000 156100
Wages In Manufacturing 177361.00
KZT/Month		 164900 165500 166200 179100 190000
Wages Low Skilled 71900.00
KZT/Month		 72700 72700 73500 73500 73700
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent		 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.1
Retirement Age Men 63.00
 63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
 58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 6.00
percent		 5.5 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 734.20
Index Points		 733 750 762 770 826
Core Inflation Rate 6.07
percent		 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 5.3
Producer Prices 1129.03
Index Points		 1168 1286 1287 1345 1644
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5
Import Prices 99.60
Index Points		 99.8 101 100 100 101
GDP Deflator 105.60
Index Points		 110 108 105 105 113
Food Inflation 4.70
percent		 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.5 2.7
Export Prices 99.90
Index Points		 101 100 101 101 96
CPI Transportation 107.80
Index Points		 116 117 116 115 129
Producer Prices Change 24.60
percent		 25.3 27.4 24.5 23.3 7.3
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent		 9 9 8.75 8.5 6.5
Money Supply M0 2103425.00
KZT Million		 2136995 2140370 2140025 2139969 2139968
Money Supply M1 5520420.00
KZT Million		 5654354 5549810 5508983 5511286 5516176
Money Supply M2 14696593.00
KZT Million		 14995523 15343197 15643399 15931470 18669518
Money Supply M3 20251145.00
KZT Million		 20727674 21179149 21383245 21489039 21581550
Foreign Exchange Reserves 30779.00
USD Million		 30480 30900 31222 31360 35100
Banks Balance Sheet 24266997922.00
KZT Thousand		 23900000000 25000000000 23300000000 22900000000 24700000000
Interbank Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 9.75 9.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8374994.00
KZT Million		 6730000 6580000 6760000 6770000 8080000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2425.60
USD Million		 2806 2941 3063 3331 3380
Exports 5137.70
USD Million		 5607 5631 5784 5891 5890
Imports 2712.10
USD Million		 2801 2689 2721 2560 2510
Current Account -95.20
USD Million		 -67 -125 -214 -347 -586
Current Account to GDP -3.20
percent		 -1.8 -1.8 -1 -1 -0.5
External Debt 166645.00
USD Million		 167000 166800 166500 167400 165774
Capital Flows -23.50
USD Million		 -138 -344 67.6 -644 -682
Gold Reserves 314.30
Tonnes		 320 325 329 333 349
Crude Oil Production 1870.00
BBL/D/1K		 1805 1700 1807 1825 1870
Foreign Direct Investment 6681.95
USD Million		 5882 4900 5774 5864 4300
Terrorism Index 2.95
 2.99 2.99 3.1 3.1 3.3
Remittances 77.00
USD Million		 81.6 87.5 94.2 98.3 98
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.40
percent		 17 17 20 20 18
Government Budget -2.80
percent of GDP		 -1.1 -1.1 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5
Government Budget Value -315304.60
KZT Million		 -1028969 -750000 -725365 -725365 -680000
Government Spending 1050768.80
KZT Million		 4114227 5945631 1089647 1084393 6332025
Government Revenues 6248704.00
KZT Million		 7550000 13560000 993000 3550000 17700000
Government Debt 16928971.00
USD Thousand		 18000000 19170000 19350000 19890000 19120000
Military Expenditure 1183.84
USD Million		 1144 1110 1200 1207 1500
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 9.00
Index Points		 10 6 5 13 10
Industrial Production 1.90
percent		 4.2 5.9 3.8 4.5 5.7
Industrial Production Mom -3.20
percent		 0.6 0.8 -0.6 -1.8 0.6
Manufacturing Production -13.20
percent		 3.7 5.9 4.2 2.5 4.5
Changes in Inventories 461010.00
KZT Million		 2150000 2550000 490000 1185000 2700000
Internet Speed 10581.80
KBps		 11300 14600 14970 15200 16000
IP Addresses 1522517.00
IP		 1524000 1525000 1526000 1525000 1530000
Leading Economic Index 2.10
percent		 4.9 5.5 4.2 3.9 6.5
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points		 4.35 4.35 4.33 4.33 4.4
Competitiveness Rank 57.00
 57 57 58 58 58
Car Registrations 3927727.00
 3800000 3790000 3780000 3775000 3745000
Cement Production 1214.80
Thousands of Tonnes 		1035 470 527 1158 620
Copper Production 38659.00
Tonnes		 33600 34100 33170 32140 32200
Ease of Doing Business 36.00
 34 34 33 33 35
Corruption Index 31.00
Points		 30 30 32 32 33
Corruption Rank 122.00
 123 123 122 122 121
Mining Production 1.00
percent		 4.3 7.6 3.7 3.5 3.8
Steel Production 390.00
Thousand Tonnes		 399 418 398 407 450
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 79.00
Index Points		 82 83 79 81 87
Retail Sales Mom 7.30
percent		 3.4 1.6 0.5 1.5 2.9
Retail Sales Yoy 11.60
percent		 3.1 6.3 3.8 4.1 6
Consumer Spending 5792503.20
KZT Million		 17646908 27778150 6006826 5977863 29583396
Consumer Credit 4939706.00
KZT Million		 4780000 4820000 4870000 4920000 5250000
Gasoline Prices 0.49
USD/Liter		 0.5 0.47 0.44 0.42 0.33
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 102.10
Index Points		 104 103 104 104 106
Construction Output -6.90
percent		 -9.5 2.5 -6.9 5.4 10.1
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 37.87
mm		 21.44 20.96 16.84 21.5 21.49
Temperature -3.30
celsius		 19.48 -2.8 -10.24 13.91 5.34