Kazakhstan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.9 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.00 7.2 6.8 6.6 6.4 4.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.25 10.25 9.5 9 8.5 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1380.80 1000 1500 900 1100 1000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 21.10 22.5 22.5 21 21 18 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 341.07 332 329 325 322 285 [+]
Stock Market 2016.81 1680 1660 1640 1630 1440 points [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.26 0.9 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 133.66 190 190 195 195 220 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 20935.85 35000 49000 15000 15000 72000 KZT Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2006.00 -8804 -11809 -13149 -13441 -11891 KZT Billion [+]
GDP per capita 10570.50 10668 10706 10729 10752 10869 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23419.90 23637 23722 23773 23823 24083 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 515852.30 1600000 2200000 220000 520000 2900000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 1046156.90 1913313 2899490 350901 1300699 3698867 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 2459295.10 3769785 5444512 2671852 2672051 6483923 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 3142796.60 4316517 5954943 3417701 3418000 6795161 KZT Billion [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 413886.40 660000 895000 275000 490000 1000000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Services 11802909.20 19000000 27000000 6100000 14500000 59000000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 1712168.80 2600000 3800000 1050000 1900000 4500000 KZT Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 240503.90 650000 890000 250000 470000 934000 KZT Million [+]
Gross National Product 46193380.60 48277968 49821460 50708641 51595822 60236476 KZT Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 437.00 439 438 437 437 438 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.1 2.06 1.83 1.83 1.54 percent [+]
Wages 143822.00 148000 158000 150000 150000 184000 KZT/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 24459.00 24500 24500 25375 25785 30000 KZT/Monthly [+]
Population 17.92 18.4 18.4 18.8 18.8 19.7 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 107500.00 107500 107500 107500 107500 107500 KZT/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 159703.00 169000 184000 159000 159000 210000 KZT/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 57800.00 57800 57800 57800 57800 57800 KZT/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.49 3.71 3.56 3.29 3.07 percent [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 63 63 63 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58.5 58.5 59.5 [+]
Living Wage Family 123483.10 123259 123254 123252 123252 123252 KZT/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 100116.70 99547 100117 99547 100116 100116 KZT/Month [+]
Employed Persons 8541.00 8700 8600 8700 8700 8900 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.00 7.2 6.8 6.6 6.4 4.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 692.70 697 711 733 735 831 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.59 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 906.46 918 920 924 928 980 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.70 8.83 10.65 12.52 8.6 12.48 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 113.60 112 112 120 120 143 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.10 100 100 101 99.8 101 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.60 0.1 1 0.1 0.21 0.5 percent [+]
Food Inflation 7.90 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 94.40 99.5 101 102 102 96 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 108.80 111 112 114 114 140 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.25 10.25 9.5 9 8.5 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1869034.00 1905567 1945746 1933049 1952433 1952431 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M1 5143578.00 5051519 5035789 5042095 5050390 5051924 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13300308.00 13516795 13701931 13941781 14190716 16592018 KZT Million [+]
Money Supply M3 19509282.00 19551022 19515760 19498060 19493865 19489189 KZT Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 32946.00 32956 31153 32650 33650 36154 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 23822807125.00 25500000000 25900000000 26200000000 27000000000 31000000000 KZT Thousand [+]
Interbank Rate 11.25 9 9 9 9 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7078622.00 6960000 7040000 7120000 728000 9080000 KZT Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1380.80 1000 1500 900 1100 1000 USD Million [+]
Exports 3786.20 3500 4300 3300 3600 5100 USD Million [+]
Imports 2405.40 2500 2800 2600 2500 4100 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1102.80 -1200 -1300 -700 -200 1200 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -6.00 -2.7 -2.7 -1.8 -1.8 -0.5 percent [+]
External Debt 165501.00 170669 171686 172869 174168 183214 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2267.10 -1093 -751 -564 -374 173 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 279.03 284 293 301 310 384 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1805.00 1785 1800 1700 1700 1700 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 60.61 76.92 76.91 64.21 75.44 76.21 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.93 1.52 1.65 1.71 1.77 1.61 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5381.45 5100 3800 4700 5500 4300 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.10 22.5 22.5 21 21 18 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -2 -2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1268964.60 -560000 -700000 -230000 -620000 -680000 KZT Million [+]
Government Spending 1235233.70 4110000 5100000 1800000 3400000 5900000 KZT Million [+]
Government Revenues 7929220.60 6900000 12000000 2700000 4900000 21000000 KZT Million [+]
Government Debt 13757039.00 13924400 14255200 14491800 14949200 18505800 USD Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 1504.30 2700 2700 3000 3000 3500 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 11.00 7 5 7 9 9 [+]
Industrial Production 14.40 6.3 5.8 4.7 5.3 5.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.6 0.75 0.63 0.67 0.66 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.90 5.4 3.5 4.1 6.8 4.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 422461.00 1920000 2090000 425000 1640000 2260000 KZT Million [+]
Mining Production 10.10 9.5 6.4 5.1 4.2 3.8 percent [+]
Steel Production 425.00 410 450 380 430 570 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Leading Economic Index 5.80 3.5 2.9 3.8 4.4 1.8 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.39 4.39 4.48 4.48 5.1 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 53.00 48 48 50 50 47 [+]
Car Registrations 3842931.00 3860000 3860000 3860000 3950000 3890000 Cars [+]
Cement Production 1202.20 1000 530 620 1110 620 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Copper Production 32808.00 38800 36600 38500 37000 42200 Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 35.00 43 40 41 43 52 [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 30 30 31 31 33 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 130 130 129 129 127 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 79.00 82 83 79 77 90 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 2.00 2.94 0.16 1.66 1.42 1.51 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 5.40 8.2 8 7.72 7.7 7.75 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 5238806.20 17372628 27119070 5559000 12480160 38780705 KZT Million [+]
Consumer Credit 4269705.00 4041897 4053884 4070417 4090344 4262094 KZT Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.46 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.51 0.61 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 99.20 99.2 99.8 102 103 110 Index Points [+]
Construction Output -2.70 4.8 3.6 6.9 8.7 10.1 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 31.00 31 31 31 31 31 percent [+]