Italy’s 10-Year BTP Yield Holds at 3.5% Amid Year-End Calm

2025-12-29 10:39 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield edged down to 3.5%, just below last week’s two-and-a-half-month highs, as investors weighed US President Trump’s remarks that a deal to end the war in Ukraine is “closer than ever,” while key issues in the eastern Donbas region remain unresolved.

Market attention also turned to the Netherlands’ occupational pension system, the EU’s largest, which begins transitioning to a new framework on January 1, allowing the nearly €2 trillion sector to invest in riskier assets.

Looking at the year as a whole, the BTP yield is set to finish 2025 largely unchanged.

Expectations of steady interest rates, low inflation, and upgrades to Italy’s credit ratings, including Moody’s (to Baa2) and Fitch (to BBB+), have supported the market.

Moody’s upgrade, the first in more than two decades, reflected improved political stability, strong implementation of the EU’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan, and prospects for gradual debt reduction.



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