Italy’s 10-Year BTP Yield Holds Near Mid-October High

2025-11-10 10:15 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield remained slightly above 3.4%, hovering near its highest level since mid-October, as investors balanced optimism over a potential US government shutdown resolution with expectations for ECB and Fed interest rate policy and Italy’s fiscal outlook.

Recent Eurozone data pointed to a resilient economy and inflation on target, signaling that the ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, with money markets currently assigning about a 40% probability of a 25bp ECB rate cut by September 2026.

Across the Atlantic, expectations for a December Fed rate cut rose after US data highlighted a weakening labor market and a sharp decline in consumer sentiment.

In Italy, the government’s budget bill is under review in Parliament, with the deficit projected to narrow to 3.0% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024, potentially allowing Italy to exit the EU’s excessive deficit procedure as early as 2026.



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