Friday January 17 2020
Italy December Inflation Rate Confirmed at 6-Month High of 0.5%
Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Italy rose to 0.5 percent in December 2019 from 0.2 percent in November and matching the preliminary estimate. It was the highest inflation rate since June, boosted by prices of transport and food & non-alcoholic beverages.

Main upward pressure came from prices of transport (1.2 percent vs -0.3 percent in November) and food & non-alcoholic beverages (0.8 percent, the same pace as in November). Other positive contributions to the annual change of the CPI stemmed from alcoholic beverages & tobacco (2 percent vs 1.9 percent); clothing & footwear (0.6 percent vs 0.4 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (1.6 percent vs 1.8 percent) and hotels & restaurants (1.2 percent vs 1.3 percent).

In contrast, cost fell for housing & utilities (-1.7 percent vs -1.8 percent) and communication (-6.6 percent vs -6.4 percent). 

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food dropped to 0.6 percent from 0.7 percent in the prior month. Excluding only energy, the inflation also edged down to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent in November.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent, after decreasing 0.2 percent in the previous month and matching an earlier estimate.

The harmonized index rose 0.5 percent on the year (vs 0.2 percent in November) and increased 0.2 percent on the month (vs -0.3 percent in November).




Friday January 17 2020
Italy Trade Surplus Widens in November
Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Italy's trade surplus increased to EUR 4.872 billion in November 2019 from EUR 3.975 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year but missing market estimates of a EUR 6.106 billion surplus. Imports slipped 5.9 percent, mainly dragged by lower purchases of transport equipment, namely vehicles, basic metals & metal products and chemicals. Exports fell at a softer 3.2 percent, amid lower sales of machinery & equipment, transport equipment, mostly other transport equipment, basic metals & metal products and coke & petroleum products.

Imports slipped 5.9 percent from a year earlier to EUR 35.30 billion in November 2019, mainly dragged by lower purchases of transport equipment (-0.2 percent), namely vehicles (-2.6 percent); basic metals & metal products (-11.2 percent); chemicals (-4.7 percent); machinery & equipment (-1.1 percent) and computers, electronic products (-5.1 percent). In contrast, imports advanced primarily for pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical articles (6.5 percent).

Among major trading partners, acquisitions decreased from Germany (-3.1 percent), France (-4.2 percent), the Netherlands (-3.4 percent), Spain (-3 percent), the UK (-12 percent), Switzerland (-14.9 percent), China (-9.8 percent) and OPEC countries (-33.3 percent). On the other hand, main increases were seen from Belgium (4.5 percent), the US (5.8 percent), Russia (3.7 percent), Turkey (4.8 percent) and Japan (1.4 percent).

Exports fell at a softer 3.2 percent year-on-year to EUR 40.17 billion, amid lower sales of machinery & equipment (-5.5 percent); transport equipment (-14.4 percent), with vehicles showing no growth and other transport equipment sinking 23.7 percent; basic metals & metal products (-5.1 percent); chemicals (-5.2 percent); rubber & plastics (-5.2 percent); coke & petroleum products (-11.1 percent) and computers, electronic products (-11.5 percent). Meanwhile, shipments grew for textiles and clothing, leather accessories (2.1 percent) and pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical articles (22.4 percent).

Exports declined mostly to Germany (-4.5 percent), Spain (-2.8 percent), the UK (-8.7 percent), the US (-10.5 percent), China (-15.5 percent), OPEC countries (-10.1 percent), while went up to France (2.5 percent), Belgium (9.2 percent), Switzerland (11.4 percent), Turkey (13.3 percent), Russia (4.9 percent) and Japan (17.8 percent).




Tuesday January 07 2020
Italy December Inflation Rate at 6-Month High of 0.5%
Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Italy is expected to rise to 0.5 percent in December 2019 from 0.2 percent in November and slightly below market expectations of 0.6 percent, a preliminary estimate showed. It should be the highest inflation rate since June, mainly attributable to prices of transport while cost is seen falling for housing & utilities.

Year-on-year, prices are expected to rebound for transport (1.2 percent vs -0.3 percent in November) and to advance faster mostly for food & non-alcoholic beverages (0.9 percent vs 0.8 percent); clothing & footwear (0.6 percent vs 0.4 percent) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (2.1 percent vs 1.9 percent). At the same time, inflation is expected to remain steady for furnishings (at 0.2 percent) and education (at 1.2 percent). 

On the other hand, cost should slow down for restaurants & hotels (1.2 percent vs 1.3 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (1.7 percent vs 1.8 percent) and recreation & culture (0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent). In addition, prices are set to decline for housing & utilities (-1.6 percent vs -1.8 percent) and communication (-6.7 percent vs -6.4 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, is likely to remain steady at 0.7 percent. Excluding energy, inflation rate also is expected to remain unchanged at 0.8 percent. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to increase 0.2 percent, after dropping 0.2 percent in November, in line with market expectations.

The harmonized index is seen rising to 0.5 percent on the year (vs 0.2 percent in November) and increasing 0.2 percent on the month (vs -0.3 percent in November).


Tuesday December 17 2019
Italy Trade Surplus Hits All-Time High in October
Istat | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Italy's trade surplus increased to EUR 8.057 billion in October 2019 from EUR 3.828 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year and beating market estimates of a a EUR 4.966 billion surplus. It was the widest monthly trade surplus since at least January 1991, as exports posted their highest ever monthly figure, boosted by transport equipment. Imports slipped, mainly due to lower purchases of chemicals.

Exports grew 4.3 percent from a year earlier to a record level of EUR 45.91 billion in October, mainly driven by shipments of transport equipment (25 percent); textiles, clothing, leather and accessories (7.3 percent); basic metals and metal products, excluding machinery & equipment (1.4 percent) and pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical articles (8.3 percent). Conversely, sales decreased for machinery & equipment (-2.2 percent); vehicles (-9.7 percent); chemicals (-6.2 percent) and rubber & plastics (-0.9 percent).

Among major trading partners, overseas sales increased to France (6.5 percent), the UK (8.7 percent), Belgium (0.5 percent), the US (24.5 percent), Switzerland (14.6 percent), China (5.3 percent) and Japan (16.1 percent), but declined to Germany (-2.8 percent), Spain (-1 percent), OPEC countries (-16.9 percent) and India (-7.7 percent).

Imports slumped 5.8 percent year-on-year to EUR 37.85 billion, amid lower acquisitions of basic metals and metal products, excluding machinery & equipment (-8.9 percent); transport equipment (-3.4 percent); of which vehicles (-2.8 percent); chemicals (-9.6 percent) and textiles and clothing, leather & accessories (-2.3 percent). Meanwhile, purchases grew primarily for machinery & equipment (1.8 percent) and pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical articles (3.1 percent).

Imports fell mostly from Germany (-2.1 percent), Belgium (-2.4 percent), Spain (-3.3 percent), the UK (-11.7 percent), China (-0.9 percent), India (-13.5 percent), OPEC countries (-38.2 percent), Switzerland (-3.4 percent), Turkey (-7.4 percent), while rose from France (0.1 percent), the Netherlands (0.9 percent), the US (15.8 percent), Russia (12.1 percent) and Japan (5.7 percent).

With European Union countries, the country's trade surplus widened to EUR 2.095 billion from EUR 10.991 billion in October 2018.



Monday December 16 2019
Italy Inflation Rate Revised Down to 0.2% in November
Istat | Rafael Gonzalez | rafael.gonzalez@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Italy came in at 0.2 percent in November of 2019, the same as in the previous month and slightly lower than a preliminary estimate of 0.4 percent. It remained the lowest inflation rate since November 2016.

Year-on-Year, cost fell for transport (-0.3 percent vs a flat reading) and housing & utilities (-1.8 percent, the same as in October) while restaurants & hotels prices slowed (1.3 percent vs 1.4 percent). On the other hand, inflation was steady for food & non-alcoholic beverages (at 0.8 percent); clothing & footwear (at 0.4 percent) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (at 1.9 percent) while prices advanced faster for miscellaneous goods & services (1.8 percent vs 1.5 percent) and health (0.7 percent vs 0.6 percent). At the same time, cost rebounded for recreation & culture (0.3 percent vs -0.3 percent) and furniture & household equipment (0.2 percent vs -0.1 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, increased 0.7 percent in November, the same as in the prior month. Excluding only energy, inflation advanced to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went down 0.2 percent, after a 0.1 percent fall in the prior month and against market forecasts and a preliminary reading of a flat reading.

The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the same pace as in the previous month; while decreased 0.3 percent month-over-month (vs 0.2 percent in October).
  


Friday November 29 2019
Italy Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.1%
Istat | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Italy's economy grew 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2019, the same pace as in the previous period and in line with preliminary estimates.

From the expenditure side, the largest contribution to the GDP growth came from consumer spending (0.3 percentage points) and inventory changes (0.3 percentage points).  On the other hand, negative contributions came from net exports, which subtracted 0.4 percentage points to growth while government spending and gross fixed investment were neutral.

Household consumption rose 0.4 percent in Q3, the highest since Q1 2018 and compared with a 0.1 percent increase in Q2. Also, government expenditure was up 0.1 percent, the same as in the prior period. On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation dropped 0.2 percent, down from a 0.2 percent gain, mainly due to transport equipment (-1.9 percent vs 6.3 percent) and machinery, equipment and weapon systems (-0.5 percent vs 2.0 percent). Exports declined 0.1 percent (vs 0.9 percent in Q2) while imports rose 1.3 percent (vs 1.1 percent in Q2).  

From the production side, the services sector grew 0.1 percent, easing from a 0.3 percent rise in Q2. By contrast, the industrial sector fell 0.1 percent, less than a 0.4 percent drop and agriculture, forestry ad fishing slumped 2.0 percent, after a 2.7 percent decline. 

Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 0.3 percent, after a 0.1 percent advance in the prior quarter and also matching flash estimates




Friday November 29 2019
Italy Inflation Rate Rises to 3-Month High
Istat | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Italy’s annual inflation rate is expected to pick up to 0.4 percent in November 2019 from 0.2 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 0.3 percent, a preliminary estimate showed. It was the highest inflation since August, as higher costs of processed food including alcohol, non-durable goods and durable goods were only partially offset by a slowdown in prices of services related to transport.

Year-on-year, prices are expected to increase faster for food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.3 percent from 0.8 percent in October), boosted by both processed food including alcohol (1.1 percent from 0.3 percent) and unprocessed food (1.2 percent from 1.1 percent); restaurant & hotels (1.6 percent from 1.4 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (1.8 percent from 1.5 percent); health (0.7 percent from 0.6 percent) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (2.2 percent from 1.9 percent). In addition, cost should rebound for both recreation & culture (0.5 percent from -0.3 percent) and furniture & household equipment (0.4 percent from -0.1 percent). 

Meantime, inflation is seen steady for clothing & footwear (at 0.4 percent) while cost is expected to fall for transport (-0.3 percent from a flat reading), as services related to transport prices slowed (1.3 percent vs 1.8 percent); housing & utilities (-1.8 percent, the same as in October), dragged down by both regulated energy products (-7.9 percent vs -8.0 percent) and non-regulated energy products (-3.0 percent vs -3.1 percent) and communication (-5.8 percent from -7 percent). 

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, should rise to 1.0 percent in November from 0.7 percent in the previous month. Excluding only energy, inflation is also likely to advance to 1.0 percent from 0.7 percent. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices should be flat, after decreasing 0.1 percent and against market expectations of a 0.1 percent drop.

The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to advance 0.4 percent from the previous year (from 0.2 percent in October); and to decline 0.1 percent month-over-month (from 0.2 percent in October).


Friday November 29 2019
Italy Jobless Rate Falls More Than Expected
Istat | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Italy decreased to 9.7 percent in October 2019 from 9.9 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 9.8 percent. Unemployed persons declined 1.7 percent while employed people increased 0.2 percent.

The number of unemployed dropped by 44 thousand, or 1.7 percent from the previous month to 2.514 million in October and those detached from the labour force edged up by 25 thousand, or 0.2 percent to 13.152 million, while employed increased by 46 thousand, or 0.2 percent to 23.426 million. 

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, fell 0.7 percent to 27.8 percent in October. 

The country's overall employment rate, one of the lowest in the Euro Area, was unchanged at 59.2 percent. The labour force participation rate edged down to 65.7 percent in October from 65.8 percent in the previous month. 

On an annual basis, unemployment declined by 269 thousand and employment increased by 217 thousand. 




Friday November 15 2019
Italy October Inflation Rate Revised Down to Near 3-Year Low
Istat | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Italy fell to 0.2 percent in October 2019 from 0.3 percent in the previous month, below a preliminary estimate and market expectations of 0.3 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since November 2016, as cost of regulated energy products dropped further.

Year-on-year, prices dropped further for housing & utilities (-1.8 percent from -0.4 percent in September), mainly due to regulated energy products (-8 percent from -5.3 percent); and recreation & culture (-0.4 percent from -0.1 percent). Also, cost slowed for restaurants & hotels (1.3 percent from 1.6 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (1.5 percent from 1.7 percent); and health (0.6 percent from 0.7 percent). On the other hand, prices advanced at a faster pace for food & non-alcoholic beverages (0.8 percent from 0.6 percent), in particular processed food (0.8 percent from 0.7 percent) and unprocessed (1.2 percent from 1.1 percent); and cost of transport was unchanged, after declining 0.7 percent in September, of which services related to transport (1.8 percent from 0.4 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, increased to 0.7 percent in October, the highest level since November last year, from 0.6 percent in September. Excluding only energy, inflation advanced to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went down 0.1 percent, after a 0.6 percent fall in the prior month and against market forecasts and a preliminary reading of a flat reading.

The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.2 percent from a year ealier, the same pace as in the previous month; while decreased 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs 1.4 percent in September).


Friday November 15 2019
Italy Trade Surplus Widens in September
Istat | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Italy’s trade surplus widened to EUR 2.779 billion in September 2019 from EUR 1.219 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year, but below market expectations of a EUR 2.892 billion surplus. Exports rose 6.2 percent over a year earlier to EUR 39.386 billion and imports increased at a softer 2.1 percent to EUR 36.607 billion.

Exports went up 6.2 percent from a year earlier to EUR 39.386 billion in September, boosted by higher sales of pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical articles (38 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (14.2 percent); leather articles, excluding clothing (14.2 percent); and base metals and metal products (5.3 percent). 

Among major trading partners, sales increased to the US (18.4 percent), Switzerland (31.6 percent), Belgium (16.8 percent) and Japan (39.4 percent), but declined to OPEC countries (-5.5 percent), the Netherlands (-3.8 percent) and China (-2.4 percent).

Imports advanced 2.1 percent year-on-year to EUR 36.607 billion, driven by higher purchases of pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal and botanical articles (29.4 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (4.5 percent); textiles, clothing and leather products (0.3 percent); machinery and equipment (6 percent); transportation (9.6 percent); basic metals and metal products except machinery and equipment (1.4 percent); and computers and electronic equipment (0.9 percent).

Imports rose mainly from Germany (9.6 percent), the US (10.1 percent), and France (4.2 percent); while those from China (-3.5 percent);  OPEC countries (-14.4 percent) and Russia (-4.1 percent) fell. 

With European Union countries, the country's trade surplus narrowed to EUR 1.255 billion from EUR 1.311 billion in September 2018.

Considering the third quarter as a whole, the country recorded a EUR 12.995 billion trade surplus, compared to a EUR 9.513 surplus in the same period of the previous year.