Indonesia Trade Surplus Below Forecasts

Indonesia’s trade surplus shrank dramatically to USD 0.95 billion in January 2026, from USD 3.49 billion in the same month last year, well below market expectations of USD 2.76 billion. It marked the smallest trade surplus since April 2025, despite Indonesia and the US recently signing a reciprocal trade deal, with Washington agreeing to maintain a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports, down from the 32% initially proposed last year. Imports jumped 18.21% year-on-year to USD 21.2 billion, driven by non-oil and gas products, which surged 16.71%, and oil and gas products, which climbed 27.52%. Meanwhile, exports grew more modestly, rising just 3.39% to USD 22.16 billion. Non-oil and gas exports increased 4.38%, supported by strong gains in animal and vegetable fats and oils, as well as electrical machinery and equipment. However, these gains were partially offset by a sharp 15.62% drop in oil and gas exports, dragged down by lower crude oil and natural gas shipments.

Indonesia and the U.S. have signed a reciprocal trade deal, with Washington agreeing to maintain a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports, down from the 32% initially proposed last year. The pact, finalized by Senior Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after months of talks, grants tariff-free access for coffee, chocolate, natural rubber, and spices, with potential exemptions for nearly 1,700 other items, including palm oil. Textile products will be subject to a 0% levy under a forthcoming Tariff-Rate Quota mechanism. Airlangga noted the U.S. dropped demands for non-economic provisions tied to nuclear development and the South China Sea, while the agreement excludes Chinese transshipments. In return, Indonesia will ease most tariff and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods, adopt American standards for vehicles and medical products, and facilitate U.S. investment in critical minerals and energy.

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD 2.52 billion in December 2025, up from USD 2.24 billion in the same month a year earlier and above market estimates of USD 2.45 billion. Exports unexpectedly grew 11.64% yoy to an over three-year high of USD 26.35 billion in December 2025, rebounding sharply from a 6.6% decline in November and easily beating market forecasts of a 2.4% fall, marking the fastest pace since February 2025. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly rose 10.81%, accelerating sharply from 0.46% in November and well above forecasts of a 0.7% decline. This marked the fastest increase in imports since last April, driven by a 1.71% rise in oil and gas imports, reflecting higher oil products (4.05%), while non–oil and gas imports rose 12.46% to USD 20.48 billion, rebounding from a 1.15% decline in November. For the entire year of 2025, Indonesia registered a trade surplus of USD 41.05 billion, with exports and imports advancing 6.15% and 2.83% year-on-year, respectively.