France’s 10-Year OAT Yield Holds Near Recent Lows

2026-01-30 11:40 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

France’s 10-year OAT yield hovered just above 3.4%, remaining near its lowest level since late November, as investors positioned ahead of the ECB’s meeting, where policymakers are expected to weigh the deflationary impact of a stronger euro.

Policymaker Martin Kocher recently cautioned that further euro appreciation could prompt the central bank to resume interest-rate cuts.

Reflecting this, money markets now price in roughly a 30% chance of a rate cut by September, up from less than 10% a week ago, while the probability of a rate hike in April 2027 fell to 20%, down from 50%.

On the political front, France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu invoked a special constitutional measure to push the 2026 budget bill through the deeply divided lower house without a vote, a move likely to trigger further no-confidence motions.

On the economic data front, France’s economy grew 0.2% in Q4 2025, marking the slowest quarterly pace since Q1.



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