Thursday December 07 2017
French October Trade Deficit Largest in 3 Months
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French trade deficit widened to EUR 5 billion in October of 2017 from a EUR 4.6 billion in September and beating market expectations of a EUR 4.6 billion gap.

Imports increased by 1.1  percent from the previous month to EUR 45.4 billion in October, as purchases went up for: Aerospace industry (7.8 percent); electrical and household equipment (0.1 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (0.5 percent); and industrial and agriculture machinery (0.7 percent); automotive products (4.8 percent); works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (17.9 percent); pharmaceuticals (24.4 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (2.7 percent); agri-food products (0.1 percent); ships, trains, bikes (0.7 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (1.4 percent), and metallurgical and metal products  (7.3 percent). In contrast, purchases fell for: Natural hydrocarbons (-3.3 percent); computers, electronics and optical (-1 percent); textiles, leather (-3 percent); refined oil (-0.3 percent); chemicals (-1.2 percent), and perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-1.3 percent).
 
Imports increased from the Middle East (13.5 percent), mainly from Saudi Arabia (22.4 percent); the EU (2.9 percent), mainly from Finland  (17.9 percent) and Germany (0.8 pcercent); Africa (5 percent). In contrast, purchases decreased from Asia (-0.6 percent) and America (-7 percent).
 
Exports rose by 0.4 percent to EUR 40.4 billion, driven by higher sales of: Works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products  (47.8 percent); industrial and agriculture machinery (2.5 percent); automotive products (2.3 percent); agri-food products (1.7 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (2.7 percent); computers, electronics and optical (3.2 percent); metallurgical and metal products (8.1 percent); ships, trains, bikes (17.3 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (0.3 percent); pharmaceuticals (6.6 percent); electrical and household equipment (0.8 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (1.5 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (4.2 percent); textiles, leather (0.9 percent), and natural hydrocarbons  (11.1 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipments fell for: refined oil (-6.7 percent); aerospace industry (-6.5 percent); agriculture products (-0.6 percent), and chemicals (-2.6 percent).
 
Exports increased to Africa (5.5 percent), mainly to Ethiopia (1.124.2 percent); Middle East (10.7 percent), mainly to Qatar (901.5 percent); the EU (4.9 percent), mainly to Germany (10.6 percent) and Spain (4.7 percent).In contrast, sales decreased to Asia (-4.6 percent) and America (-8.1 percent).
 




Thursday November 30 2017
French Inflation Rate Rises to 7-Month High in November
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.2 percent year-on-year in November 2017, following a 1.1 percent rise in the previous month, the preliminary estimate showed. It was the highest inflation rate since April, as cost of energy, tobacco and services increased further and prices of manufactured products fell at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, upward pressure should come from: energy (5.5 percent from 4.8 percent in October); tobacco (4.4 percent from 2.4 percent); services (1.1 percent from 1 percent); and food (1.5 percent, the same as in October), of which fresh food (3.6 percent from 4.5 percent) and other food (1.1 percent, the same as in October). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.2 percent, after a 0.3 percent decline in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices should rise by 0.1 percent in November, the same pace as in the previous month. This new slight increase should result from an acceleration in energy prices, a lesser fall in services prices and an increase in tobacco prices. On the other hand, food prices should slow down, due to a downturn in fresh food prices, which sharply rebounded in the previous month.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.3 percent from the previous year; and by 0.1 percent from the previous month.




Wednesday November 29 2017
French Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.5%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy advanced 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2017, following a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous period and matching the preliminary estimate. Growth was mainly driven by household consumption while fixed investment rose at softer pace and foreign trade contributed negatively.

The positive contribution to GDP came from changes in inventories (0.5 percentage points), household final consumption expenditure (0.3 percentage points), fixed investment (0.2 percentage points) and government spending (0.1 percentage points); while net trade had a negative contribution of 0.6 percentage points.

Household consumption grew by 0.6 percent in the third quarter, faster than a 0.3 percent expansion in the previous period and gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.9 percent, following a 1.1 percent advance in Q2. Also, government spending increased by 0.5 percent, the same pace as in the preceding three months.

Imports jumped by 2.8 percent, accelerating from a 0.3 percent gain in the second quarter; while exports rose at a slower 1.1 percent, following a 2.2 percent increase.

Year-on-year, the economy grew 2.2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and following a 1.8 percent expansion in the previous period. It was the strongest pace of expansion since the second quarter of 2011.





Thursday November 16 2017
French Q3 Jobless Rate Highest in 3 Quarters
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in France rose to 9.7 percent in the three months to September of 2017 from 9.5 percent in the previous period and in line with market consensus. It was the highest jobless rate since the fourth quarter of 2016. Meantime, the employment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 65.1 percent while the activity rate came in at 71.9 percent (from 72.0 percent in Q2).

The average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) went up to 9.7 percent from 9.5 percent in the previous period. In metropolitan France only, the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from the preceding quarter to 9.4 percent, as the number of unemployed increased by 62,000 to 2.7 million. The unemployment rose among persons aged 25 to 49 and those aged 50 and over, whereas it declined for youths. Among unemployed, 1.2 million were seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent from 4.0 percent in Q2. 

In the third quarter, the employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous period to 65.1 percent.  It fell among those aged 25 to 49 and those aged 50 to 64, and held firm for youths. Over a year, the employment rate increased by 0.5 percentage points.

About 6.2 percent of the employed persons were underemployed, meaning that they had a part-time job but wished to work more.

The activity rate of people aged 15-64 was almost steady at 71.9 oercent (from 72 percent in the June quarter). Over a year, it increased by 0.3 percentage points. Among inactive people, 1.4 million persons wished to work without being considered as unemployed according to the ILO definition: they made up the halo of unemployment. Their number fell by 59,000 compared to Q2 2017 and by 62,000 over a year.




Wednesday November 15 2017
French October Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.1%
INSEE, France l Chusnul Ch Manan| chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer prices rose by 1.1 percent year-on-year in October 2017, matching the preliminary estimate and following a 1 percent increase in the prior month. It was the highest inflation rate since April, as food prices rose further while cost of manufactured products fell at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Energy (4.8 percent from 5.1 percent in September); food (1.5 percent from 1.1 percent), of which fresh food (4.5 percent from 1.6 percent) and other food (1.1 percent from 1 percent); tobacco ( 2.4 percent, the same pace as in September); and services (1 percent, the same pace as in the prior month). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.3 percent, after a 0.5 percent decline in September.
 
Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, stood at 0.5 percent, as in July, August, and in September.
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.1 percent in October, in line with a preliminary reading and recovering from a 0.2 percent fall in September. This rebound resulted from that in food prices and lesser drop in services prices. Contrariwise, manufactured product prices slowed down sharply after a marked rise in September. Energy prices increased barely less than in the prior month.
 
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.2 percent from the previous year; and edged up by 0.1 percent from the previous month.
 
 
 
 


Wednesday November 08 2017
French Trade Deficit Widens Less than Expected in September
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French trade deficit widened to EUR 4.7 billion in September 2017 from a revised EUR 4.2 billion in the previous month, but below market expectations of a EUR 4.8 billion gap.

Imports jumped by 1.3 percent from the previous month to EUR 45.0 billion in September, as purchases rose for: Refined oil (15.4 percent); aerospace industry (13.1 percent); chemicals (4.8 percent), and textiles, leather (2.1 percent). In contrast, purchases declined for: Perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-4.3 percent); agriculture products (-0.1 percent); electrical and household equipment (-0.2 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (-0.4 percent); industrial and agriculture machinery (-0.8 percent); natural hydrocarbons (-2.6 percent); automotive products (-5.2 percent); works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (-6.4 percent); pharmaceuticals (-8.5 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (-2.8 percent); computers, electronics and optical (-1.6 percent); agri-food products (-2.1 percent); ships, trains, bikes (-13.6 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (-1 percent), and metallurgical and metal products (-3.3 percent).
 
Imports went up from the Middle East (16.8 percent); Asia (0.6 percent), mainly from Thailand (7.5 percent), Taiwan (5.6 percent), Vietnam (2.9 percent) and India (2.7 percent); America (1.5 percent), mainly from Mexico (19 percent); and the EU (0.3 percent), mainly from the UK (3.2 percent). In contrast, purchases decreased from Africa (-3.6 percent).
 
Exports increased by 0.3 percent to EUR 40.3 billion, driven by higher sales of: Aerospace industry (7.8 percent); textiles; leather (0.5 percent); chemicals (3.2 percent); ships, trains, bikes (10 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (0.1 percent); refined oil (34.6 percent); pharmaceuticals (1.7 percent); electrical and household equipment (2.1 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, and cleaning products (0.2 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipments fell for: Wood, paper, cardboard (-1 percent); natural hydrocarbons (-1.3 percent); works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (-26.4 percent); agriculture products (-2.4 percent); industrial and agriculture machinery (-4.2 percent); automotive products (-2 percent); agri-food products (-3.8 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (-1 percent); computers, electronics and optical (-2.9 percent); and metallurgical and metal products (-3.9 percent).
 
Exports rose to America (3.9 percent); Africa (1.1 percent), and the Middle East (9.9 percent). In contrast, sales decreased to the EU (-0.5 percent), mainly to the UK (-4.8 percent) and Asia (-5.1 percent), mainly to Malaysia (-71.8 percent), Vietnam (-60 percent), India (-22.2 percent), and China & Hong Kong (-18.1 percent).


Tuesday October 31 2017
French Inflation Rate at 6-Month High of 1.1%
INSEE, France l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.1 percent year-on-year in October 2017 after an increase of 1 percent in the previous month, the preliminary estimate showed. It was the highest inflation rate since April, as food prices rose further while cost of manufactured products fell at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Food (1.6 percent from 1.1 percent in September), of which fresh food (4.5 percent from 1.6 percent) and other food (1.1 percent from 1 percent); energy (4.9 percent from 5.1 percent) tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in September); and services (1 percent, the same as in September). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.2 percent, after a 0.5 percent decline in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.1 percent in October, recovering from a 0.2 percent drop in September. This rise should come from a rebound in food prices and a lesser fall in services prices. Energy prices should increase at the same pace than in September: a rise in town gas prices should be offset by a slowdown in petroleum product prices. On the other hand, manufactured product prices should decelerate sharply after an increase in September.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.2 percent from the previous year; and by 0.1 percent from the previous month.


Tuesday October 31 2017
French Economy Expands 0.5% in Q3
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy advanced 0.5 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2017, following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent expansion in the second quarter and in line with market expectations, the preliminary estimate showed. It was the fifth straight quarter of growth, as household consumption and fixed investment grew firmly, and inventory changes contributed positively. Meanwhile, foreign trade was a drag on growth, as exports rose at softer pace and imports jumped.

From the expenditure side, the positive contribution to GDP came from changes in inventories (0.5 percentage points), household consumption (0.3 percentage points), gross fixed capital formation (0.2 percentage points) and government spending (0.1 percentage points); while net trade subtracted 0.6 percentage points to growth.

Household consumption increased by 0.5 percent, faster than a 0.3 percent rise in the prior three-month period, and government expenditure went up by 0.4 percent, the same as in Q2. Meanwhile, fixed investment rose at a slower 0.8 percent after a 1 percent gain in in the previous quarter, as spending eased on both construction (0.5 percent from 1.2 percent) and market services (1 percent from 1.2 percent), while investment on manufactured goods went up faster (0.8 percent from 0.5 percent).

Imports jumped 2.5 percent after a 0.2 percent rise in the previous period while exports grew at a softer 0.7 percent, following a 2.3 percent increase in Q2.

From the production side, production in goods and services slightly decelerated in Q3 2017 (0.6 percent from 0.8 percent), as services output rose at softer pace (0.6 percent from 0.8 percent), while goods production grew faster (0.8 percent from 0.7 percent). In detail, output in manufactured goods kept on rising (0.6 percent from 0.7 percent), mainly because of transport equipment (3.1 percent after showing no growth in Q2), while production slowed sharply in construction (0.3 percent from 1.2 percent).

Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 2.2 percent, following a 1.8 percent growth in the previous period. It was the strongest pace of expansion since the second quarter of 2011.


Thursday October 12 2017
French September Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer prices rose by 1 percent year-on-year in September 2017, matching the preliminary estimate and following a 0.9 percent increase in the prior month. It was the highest inflation rate since April, as cost increased further for both energy and food while manufactured product prices fell at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Energy (5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in August); food (1.1 percent from 0.6 percent), of which fresh food (1.6 percent from -0.8 percent) and other food (1 percent from 0.8 percent); tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in August); and services (1 percent from 1.2 percent). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.5 percent, after a 0.7 percent decline in August.

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, stood at 0.5 percent, as in July and in August.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.2 percent in September, compared with a preliminary reading of 0.1 percent fall and following a 0.5 percent gain in August. This drop mainly came from a seasonal downturn in services prices and, in a lesser extent, from a slight drop in food prices. Energy prices slowed down a little. Contrariwise, manufactured product prices accelerated.

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.1 percent from the previous year; and decreased by 0.2 percent from the previous month.



Friday October 06 2017
French August Trade Deficit Smallest in 8 Months
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French trade deficit narrowed to EUR 4.5 billion in August of 2017 from a marginally revised EUR 5.9 billion in July and below market expectations of a EUR 5.4 billion gap.

Imports fell by 1.8 percent from the previous month to EUR 44.3 billion in August, as purchases went down for: Aerospace industry (-13.4 percent); refined oil (-12.8 percent); chemicals (-8.7 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-2.2 percent); agriculture products (-2 percent); electrical and household equipment (-2 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (-1.4 percent); and industrial and agriculture machinery (-0.5 percent). In contrast, purchases rose for: Natural hydrocarbons (9.6 percent); automotive products (8.2 percent); works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (1.4 percent); pharmaceuticals (1.4 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (0.8 percent); computers, electronics and optical (0.8 percent); agri-food products (0.7 percent); textiles, leather (0.5 percent); ships, trains, bikes (0.5 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (0.2 percent); and metallurgical and metal products (0.1 percent).

Imports decreased from the Middle East (-24.5 percent), mainly from Saudi Arabia (-33.5 percent); Asia (-5.1 percent), mainly from India (-19.2 percent); and the EU (-1.2 percent), mainly from the UK (-7.9 percent). In contrast, purchases increased from Africa (3.2 percent) and America (0.6 percent).

Exports increased by 1.4 percent to EUR 39.8 billion, driven by higher sales of: Works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (21.4 percent); aerospace industry (7.1 percent); agriculture products (5.8 percent); industrial and agriculture machinery (2.2 percent); automotive products (1.7 percent); agri-food products (1.7 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (1.1 percent); computers, electronics and optical (1 percent); and metallurgical and metal products (0.2 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipments fell for: Ships, trains, bikes (-32.9 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (-10.1 percent); refined oil (-4.6 percent); pharmaceuticals (-2.9 percent); electrical and household equipment (-2.2 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-2.2 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (-1.5 percent); textiles, leather (-1.4 percent); natural hydrocarbons (-0.4 percent); chemicals (-0.1 percent).

Exports increased to Asia (12 percent), mainly to Malaysia (171.5 percent), Vietnam (107.2 percent), China and Hong Kong (43.5 percent) and India (33 percent); America (3.3 percent); and the EU (0.2 percent). In contrast, sales decreased to Africa (-5.3 percent) and the Middle East (-1.3 percent).