Thursday October 12 2017
French September Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer prices rose by 1 percent year-on-year in September 2017, matching the preliminary estimate and following a 0.9 percent increase in the prior month. It was the highest inflation rate since April, as cost increased further for both energy and food while manufactured product prices fell at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Energy (5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in August); food (1.1 percent from 0.6 percent), of which fresh food (1.6 percent from -0.8 percent) and other food (1 percent from 0.8 percent); tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in August); and services (1 percent from 1.2 percent). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.5 percent, after a 0.7 percent decline in August.

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, stood at 0.5 percent, as in July and in August.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.2 percent in September, compared with a preliminary reading of 0.1 percent fall and following a 0.5 percent gain in August. This drop mainly came from a seasonal downturn in services prices and, in a lesser extent, from a slight drop in food prices. Energy prices slowed down a little. Contrariwise, manufactured product prices accelerated.

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.1 percent from the previous year; and decreased by 0.2 percent from the previous month.





Friday October 06 2017
French August Trade Deficit Smallest in 8 Months
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French trade deficit narrowed to EUR 4.5 billion in August of 2017 from a marginally revised EUR 5.9 billion in July and below market expectations of a EUR 5.4 billion gap.

Imports fell by 1.8 percent from the previous month to EUR 44.3 billion in August, as purchases went down for: Aerospace industry (-13.4 percent); refined oil (-12.8 percent); chemicals (-8.7 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-2.2 percent); agriculture products (-2 percent); electrical and household equipment (-2 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (-1.4 percent); and industrial and agriculture machinery (-0.5 percent). In contrast, purchases rose for: Natural hydrocarbons (9.6 percent); automotive products (8.2 percent); works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (1.4 percent); pharmaceuticals (1.4 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (0.8 percent); computers, electronics and optical (0.8 percent); agri-food products (0.7 percent); textiles, leather (0.5 percent); ships, trains, bikes (0.5 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (0.2 percent); and metallurgical and metal products (0.1 percent).

Imports decreased from the Middle East (-24.5 percent), mainly from Saudi Arabia (-33.5 percent); Asia (-5.1 percent), mainly from India (-19.2 percent); and the EU (-1.2 percent), mainly from the UK (-7.9 percent). In contrast, purchases increased from Africa (3.2 percent) and America (0.6 percent).

Exports increased by 1.4 percent to EUR 39.8 billion, driven by higher sales of: Works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (21.4 percent); aerospace industry (7.1 percent); agriculture products (5.8 percent); industrial and agriculture machinery (2.2 percent); automotive products (1.7 percent); agri-food products (1.7 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (1.1 percent); computers, electronics and optical (1 percent); and metallurgical and metal products (0.2 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipments fell for: Ships, trains, bikes (-32.9 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (-10.1 percent); refined oil (-4.6 percent); pharmaceuticals (-2.9 percent); electrical and household equipment (-2.2 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-2.2 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (-1.5 percent); textiles, leather (-1.4 percent); natural hydrocarbons (-0.4 percent); chemicals (-0.1 percent).

Exports increased to Asia (12 percent), mainly to Malaysia (171.5 percent), Vietnam (107.2 percent), China and Hong Kong (43.5 percent) and India (33 percent); America (3.3 percent); and the EU (0.2 percent). In contrast, sales decreased to Africa (-5.3 percent) and the Middle East (-1.3 percent).
 
 




Friday September 29 2017
French September Inflation Rate at 5-Month High of 1%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer prices are expected to rise by 1 percent year-on-year in September 2017, following a 0.9 percent increase in the prior month, the preliminary estimate showed. It was the highest inflation rate since April, as cost increased further for both energy and food while manufactured product prices fell at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Energy (5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in August); food (1 percent from 0.6 percent), of which fresh food (1.4 percent from -0.8 percent) and other food (0.9 percent from 0.8 percent); tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in August); and services (1.1 percent from 1.2 percent). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.4 percent, after a 0.7 percent decline in August.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1 percent in September, after a 0.6 percent gain in August. This decline should mainly come from a seasonal rebound in services prices, essentially those of tourism-related services. Moreover, food prices should fall after a stability in the previous month. Energy prices should slow a little, the stability in gas and electricity prices moderating a sharp rise in the prices of petroleum products. On the other hand, manufactured product prices should accelerate after a seasonal rebound in August.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.1 percent from the previous year; and decrease by 0.1 percent from the previous month.


Friday September 22 2017
French Q2 GDP Growth Matches Estimates
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy advanced 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the June quarter of 2017, the same pace as in the previous two quarters and in line with the second estimates, final figures showed. It was the fourth straight quarter of expansion, driven by household consumption, government spending and exports while fixed investment rose at a slower pace.

In the second quarter 2017, positive contribution to GDP came from final domestic demand excluding inventory changes (0.5 percentage points from 0.4 percentage points in Q1) and net foreign trade (0.6 percentage points after -0.6 percentage points). In contrast, changes in inventories subtracted 0.5 percentage points from the growth after contributing 0.7 percentage points in the first quarter.

Household consumption increased by 0.3 percent, faster than a 0.1 percent rise in the prior three-month period. Government expenditure went up by 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise in Q1. Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation rose at a slower 0.9 percent after a 1.4 percent  growth in Q1.

Exports rebounded  (2.4 percent after -0.8 percent in Q1) while imports rose at a softer pace (0.3 percent after a 1.2 percent rise in the March quarter).

Year-on-year, the economy expanded 1.8 percent, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 1.7 percent and following a 1.1 percent growth in the previous period. It was the strongest pace of expansion since the September quarter 2011.




Thursday September 14 2017
French August Inflation Rate Confirmed at 0.9%
INSEE l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French annual inflation came in at 0.9 percent in August 2017, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and compared with 0.7 percent in the previous month. It was the highest inflation rate since April, mainly due to a surge in energy prices.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Energy (4.8 percent from 1.9 percent in July); food (0.6 percent from 0.7 percent), of which other food (0.8 percent, the same as in July) and fresh food (-0.8 percent from 0.4 percent); tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in July); and services (1.2 percent from 1 percent). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.7 percent, after a 0.4 percent decline in July.

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, stood at 0.5 percent, unchanged from July.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent fall in July and also in line with earlier estimates. The rebound in prices was driven by a rise in manufactured product prices (1.1 percent), and also from an upturn in energy prices (1.2 percent). Contrariwise, services price inflation slowed down sharply to 0.3 percent, due to a seasonal downturn in airfares and a slowdown in those of accommodation services. Food prices were unchanged.

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1 percent from the previous year and by 0.6 month-over-month.


Thursday September 07 2017
French July Trade Deficit Largest in 5 Months
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

French trade deficit widened to EUR 6.0 billion in July of 2017 from an upwardly revised EUR 4.9 billion in June and above market expectations of a EUR 4.5 billion gap.

Imports jumped by 3 percent from the previous month to EUR 45.3 billion in July, as purchases went up for: Refined oil (24.2 percent); pharmaceuticals (3.5 percent); aerospace industry (31.5 percent); textiles, leather (1.6 percent); rubber products, plastics, various minerals (5.4 percent); agriculture (0.9 percent); wood, paper, cardboard (3.0 percent); metallurgical and metal products (2.5 percent); computers, electronics and optical (0.9 percent); chemicals (10.0 percent); industrial and agriculture machinery (4.8 percent); ships, trains, bikes (4.6 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (4.2 percent); and electrical and household equipment (1.3 percent). In contrast, purchases dropped for: Works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (-0.5 percent); automotive products (-1.0 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (-1.1 percent); and natural hydrocarbons (-6.2 percent).
 
Imports increased from the Middle East (17.4 percent), the EU (3.8  percent), mainly from Finland (34.5 percent) and the UK (16.7 percent); Asia (6.4 percent), and America (5.7 percent). In contrast, purchases decreased from Africa (-3.6 percent).

Exports increased by 0.5 percent to EUR 39.3 billion, driven by higher sales of: Natural hydrocarbons (0.9 percent); refined oil (9.8 percent); automotive products (3.2 percent); pharmaceuticals (3.8 percent); works of arts, technical documentation, publishing products (6.4 percent); chemicals (0.2 percent); computers, electronics and optical (2.0 percent); and electrical and household equipment (4.4 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (1.8 percent); perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (5.4 percent); agriculture products (1.7 percent); rubber products, plastic, various minerals (0.7 percent);  wood, paper, cardboard (1.9 percent), and textiles, leather (1.2 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipments fell for: Ships, trains and bikes (-4.3 percent); aerospace industry (-2.8 percent), and industrial and agriculture machinery (-0.6 percent).
 
Exports increased to the Middle East (23.8 percent), America (3.5 percent) and the EU (1.4 percent). In contrast, sales decrease to Asia (-6.8 percent) and Africa (-0.6 percent).


Thursday August 31 2017
French Inflation Rate at 4-Month High of 0.9% in August
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

French consumer price inflation is expected to increase to 0.9 percent year-on-year in August 2017, following a 0.7 percent rise in the prior two months, the preliminary estimate showed. It was the highest inflation rate since April, mainly due to a surge in energy prices.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Energy (4.9 percent from 1.9 percent in July); food (0.6 percent from 0.7 percent), of which fresh food (-0.8 percent from 0.4 percent) and other food (0.9 percent from 0.8 percent); tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in July); and services (1.1 percent from 1.0 percent). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.6 percent, after a 0.4 percent decline in July.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.5 percent in August, recovering from a 0.3 percent drop in July. This increase should mainly be due to a seasonal rebound in manufactured product prices after the summer sales in the metropolitan area, and a seasonal momentum, in the prices of some tourism-related services. Energy prices should pick up strongly, due to the annual revision in electricity fees and a rebound in petroleum product prices. Food prices are set to be stable after a slight rise in the previous month.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.0 percent from the previous year; and by 0.6 percent from the previous month.


Tuesday August 29 2017
French Q2 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.5%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy grew 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June of 2017, in line with the preliminary estimate and the same pace as in the previous two periods. It was the fourth straight quarter of expansion, mainly supported by household consumption, government spending and exports while fixed investment increased at a slower pace.

In the second quarter 2017, the positive contribution to GDP came from final domestic demand excluding inventory changes (0.4 percentage points, the same as in Q1 2017) and net foreign trade (0.6 percentage points after -0.6 percentage points in Q1). In contrast, changes in inventories subtracted 0.5 percentage points from the growth after contributing 0.7 percentage points in Q1.

Household consumption grew by 0.3 percent, faster than a 0.1 percent rise in the prior three-month period; and government expenditure increased by 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise in Q1. Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation rose at a slower 0.7 percent after a 1.3 percent advance in Q1.

Exports bounced back (2.5 percent after -0.9 percent in Q1) while imports rose at a softer pace (0.4 percent after 1.1 percent).

Year-on-year, the economy advanced 1.7 percent, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 1.8 percent and following a 1.1 percent growth in the previous period. It was the strongest pace of expansion since the third quarter of 2011.


Thursday August 17 2017
French Q2 Jobless Rate Lowest in Over 5 Years
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in France dropped slightly to 9.5 percent in the second quarter of 2017 from 9.6 percent in the previous period. It was the lowest jobless rate since the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the employment rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 65.3 percent, its highest level since 1980, and the activity rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 72 percent, its highest level since 1975.

The average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) fell to 9.5 percent from 9.6 percent in the previous period. In metropolitan France only, the unemployment rate declined to 9.2 percent in the three months to June from 9.3 percent in the previous period, as the number of unemployed dropped by 20,000 to 2.7 million. The unemployment decreased among persons aged 25 to 49 and those aged 50 and over, whereas it increased for youths. Among unemployed, 1.2 million were seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployment rate edged down to 4 percent from 4.1 percent in Q1. 

In the first quarter, the employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years increased by 0.5 percentage points from the previous period to 65.3 percent in the second quarter, its highest level since 1980. It rose across all age groups, but more particularly among persons aged 50 to 64. Over a year, the employment rate increased by 0.7 percentage points.

About 6.1 percent of the employed persons were underemployed, meaning that they had a part-time job but wished to work more.

The activity rate of people aged 15-64 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 72 percent, its highest level since 1975. Over a year, it increased by 0.4 percentage points. Among inactive people, 1.5 million persons wished to work without being considered as unemployed according to the ILO definition: they made up the halo of unemployment. Their number decreased by 22,000 compared to Q1 2017 and was almost steady over a year.




Friday August 11 2017
French July Inflation Rate Confirmed at 0.7%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

French annual inflation rate came in at 0.7 percent in July 2017, unchanged from the previous month's six month low and in line with earlier estimates. Prices increased for food, energy and services while cost of manufactured products continued to decline.

Year-on-year, upward pressure came from: Food (0.7 percent from 0.8 percent in June), of which fresh food (0.4 percent from 1.5 percent) and other food (0.8 percent from 0.6 percent); tobacco (2.4 percent, the same as in June); energy (1.9 percent, the same as in June); and services (1 percent from 0.9 percent). In contrast, prices of manufactured products fell 0.4 percent, after dropping 0.3 percent in June.

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, rose to 0.5 percent from a 0.4 percent in June.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 0.3 percent, after showing no gain in June. 

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 0.8 percent from the previous year and fell 0.4 month-over-month.