Wednesday May 23 2018
French Q1 Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Rises to 9.2%
Insee l Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in France unexpectedly increased to 9.2 percent in the three months to March of 2018 from an upwardly revised 9 percent in the previous period and missing market consensus of 8.8 percent.

The average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) rose to 9.2 percent from 9 percent in the previous period. It was the lowest level since early 2009. In metropolitan French only, the unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points from the preceding quarter to 8.9 percent, as the number of unemployed went up by 83,000 to 2.6 million. The unemployment increased across all age groups, particularly among women aged 15 to 49. Among unemployed, 1.1 million were seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployment rate  came in at 3.6 percent, almost steady compared to the December quarter (-0.1 points) and fell by 0.5 points from a year earlier.

In the first quarter, the employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years stood at 65.7 percent, remaining at the highest level since early 1980s. It increased slightly for persons aged 50 to 64 and was almost stable among other age groups. Over a year, the employment rate increased by 1.0 percentage points.

About 6 percent of the employed persons were underemployed, meaning that they had a part-time job but wished to work more. The ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points compared to Q4, and by was almost steady year on year.

The activity rate of people aged 15-64 edged up to 72.2 oercent (from 72.0 percent in the preceding quarter). Over a year, it increased by 0.8 percentage points. Among inactive people, 1.5 million persons wished to work without being considered as unemployed according to the ILO definition: they made up the halo of unemployment. Their number fell by 22,000 compared to Q4 and nearly steady over a year (-10.000).




Tuesday May 15 2018
French Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.6% in April
Insee | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The consumer price inflation rate in France was confirmed at 1.6 percent year-on-year in April 2018, unchanged from the previous month's five-and-a-half-year high.

Services inflation was steady at 1.4 percent in April, while prices rose at a faster pace for: food (1.6 percent vs 1.5 percent), of which fresh food (3.9 percent vs 2.8 percent) and other food (1.2 percent, the same pace as in March); and energy (6.3 percent vs 5 percent). On the other hand, tobacco prices advanced at a slower 16.5 percent, compared with 16.6 percent in the previous month; and manufactured products prices fell by 0.3 percent, the same pace as in March.

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, edged down to 0.8 percent in April from 0.9 percent in March.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in April, faster than a preliminary estimate of 0.1 percent and after a rise of 1 percent in the previous month. This deceleration resulted from a slowdown in manufactured product price inflation (0.1 percent vs 2.1 percent) after a rebound in March due to the end of winter sales. The prices of services (0.1 percent vs 0.4 percent) and food (0.1 percent vs 0.4 percent) also rose less than in March. On the other hand, energy prices rebounded sharply (0.9 percent after -0.7 percent) in the wake of petroleum product prices.

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.8 percent from the previous year; and by 0.2 percent month-over-month.





Friday May 04 2018
French Trade Deficit Widens in March
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The French trade deficit widened to EUR 5.3 billion in March of 2018 from a downwardly revised EUR 5.1 billion in February and slightly above market consensus of a EUR 4.9 billion shortfall. Imports rose 0.8 percent to EUR 45.2 billion, while exports increased at a slower 0.4 percent to EUR 39.9 billion.

Imports increased 0.8 percent from the previous month to EUR 45.2 billion in March, following an upwardly revised 1.5 percent fall in the prior month. Biggest rise were seen in purchases of aerospace products (16.1 percent), mainly from Germany and UK; agricultural products (3.3 percent), mostly from Spain, Morocco, and Norway. Other significant gains also recorded in works of art, technical documentation, publishing products (6.9 percent); electronic and optical products (4.7 percent); parfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (3.2 percent); ships, trans, motorcycles (1.2 percent), and electrical and household equipment (0.7 percent).
 
Exports went up at a softer 0.4 percent to EUR 39.9 billion, compared with a donwardly revised 0.7 percent fall in February. Sales rose mostly for, pharmaceutical produtcs (19.1 percent); household equipment (6.5 percent); works of art, tecnical documentation, publishing products (4.2 percent);  parfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (3.4 percent). Other increases were also seen in jewelry, toys and furniture (1.4 percent); textiles, leather (0.7 percent), and metallurgical and metallic products (0.1 percent).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 





Friday April 27 2018
French Inflation Rate Unchanged at 5-1/2-Year High
INSEE, France l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The French consumer price inflation is expected to remain at 1.6 percent year-on-year in April 2018, unchanged from the previous month's five-and-a-half-year high, a preliminary estimate showed. Prices should rise at a faster pace for food and energy while services inflation is expected to slow.

Year-on-year, prices should rise at a faster pace for: food (1.6 percent vs 1.5 percent), of which fresh food (3.9 percent vs 2.8 percent) and other food (1.2 percent, the same pace as in March); and energy (6.2 percent vs 5 percent). On the other hand, services inflation is expected to ease to 1.3 percent in April from 1.4 percent in the previous month and tobacco prices should advance 16.5 percent, compared with 16.6 percent. Meantime, manufactured products prices are expected to fall by 0.3 percent, the same pace as in March.
 
Over one month, consumer prices should increase 0.1 percent in April after the rebound of 1 percent in the previous month. This deceleration should result from the seasonal decline in manufactured product prices, as well as stable tobacco prices after a sharp rise in March. Services prices should slow, as well as those of food because of fresh products. In contrast, the prices of petroleum products should rebound strongly this month.
 
The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.8 percent from the previous year; and by 0.1 percent month-over-month.


Friday April 27 2018
French Q1 GDP Growth Weakest in 1-1/2 Years
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy expanded by 0.3 percent on quarter in the three months to March 2018, easing from a 0.7 percent growth in the previous quarter and missing market expectations of 0.4 percent. It was the weakest pace of expansion since the third quarter of 2016.

In the first quarter final domestic demand added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while net foreign demand and changes in inventories had no contribution.

Within domestic demand, gross fixed capital formation rose at a slower 0.6 percent, after a 1.1 percent rise in the previous quarter, especially because of the slowdown in corporate investment; and government expenditure went up 0.3 percent, compared to a 0.4 percent growth in Q4. In addition, household spending increased by 0.2 percent, the same pace as in the preceding period, as consumption of goods was stable for the second consecutive quarter while that of services slowed down slightly. 
Exports declined by 0.1 percent in Q1, reversing from a 2.5 percent growth in the prior quarter, especially due to transport equipment sales. At the same time, imports were flat, after a 0.4 percent rise in the previous period.
Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 2.1 percent, following a 2.6 percent growth in the previous period. 




Thursday April 12 2018
French March Inflation Rate Revised Up to 1.6%
INSEE, France | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The French consumer price inflation stood at 1.6 percent year-on-year in March 2018, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 1.5 percent, as energy cost rose more than initially thought and manufactured products prices fell less than previously estimated. March's inflation came in stronger than the previous month's 1.2 percent, hitting its highest level since October 2012.

Prices rose at a faster pace for: services (1.4 percent vs 1.1 percent in February); food (1.5 percent vs 0.8 percent), of which fresh food (2.8 percent vs -1.3 percent) and other food (1.2 percent, the same as in February); and tobacco (16.6 percent vs 4.9 percent). On the other hand, energy inflation slowed to 5 percent in March (vs a preliminary 4.9 percent) from 5.2 percent in the previous month, while manufactured products prices fell by 0.3 percent (vs a preliminary -0.4 percent), after a 0.1 percent rise in February.
 
Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, edged up to 0.9 percent in March from 0.8 percent in February.
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1 percent in March, the steepest gain on record, after being flat in February. This rise came from a rebound in manufactured products prices after the end of winter sales (2.1 percent vs -0.3 percent) and in food prices (0.4 percent vs -0.1 percent). Furthermore, tobacco prices rose markedly (13.2 percent) and those of services accelerated over one month (0.4 percent vs 0.1 percent). On the other hand, energy prices fell 0.7 percent in the wake of petroleum product prices.
 
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.7 percent from the previous year; and by 1.1 percent from the previous month.


Friday April 06 2018
French Trade Deficit Narrows in February
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The French trade deficit narrowed to EUR 5.2 billion in February of 2018 from a downwardly revised EUR 5.4 billion in January and slightly above market consensus of a EUR 5.15 billion shortfall. Imports fell 1.4 percent to EUR 44.9 billion, while exports declined at a slower 0.9 percent to EUR 39.7 billion.

Imports declined 1.4 percent from the previous month to EUR 44.9 billion in February, following a dowmwardly revised 1 percent increase in the prior month. Biggest drop were seen in purchases of aerospace products (-26.7 percent), mainly from Germany and UK; natural hydrocarbons, mining products, electricity (-4.6 percent), mainly from Kazakhstan; automotive industry products (-1.4 percent), mostly from Spain and Germany. Other significant loses also recorded in electronic and optical products (-5.4 percent); parfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-2.6 percent); textiles, leather (-2.3 percent); and agricultural products (-2.7 percent).

Exports dropped at a softer 0.9 percent to EUR 39.7 billion, compared with an upwardly revised 4.1 percent fall in January. Sales went down mostly for, chemicals produtcs (-8.8 percent); electrical and household equipment (-7.9 percent); electronic and optical products (-5.9 percent); jewelry, toys and furniture (-4.2 percent); pharmaceutical products (-3.5 percent); refined oil (-3.1); textiles, leather (-3 percent). Other decreases were also seen in metallurgical and metallic products (-0.3 percent); rubber, plastic, mineral products (-1.5 percent); parfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products (-0.3 percent); and wood, paper,cardboard (-0.2 percent).  


Friday March 30 2018
French Inflation Rate at 5-1/2-Year High in March
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French consumer price inflation is expected to rise to 1.5% year-on-year in March from 1.2% in the previous month and in line with market consensus, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the highest inflation rate since October 2012.

Year-on-year, prices should rise at a faster pace for: services (1.4 percent vs 1.1 percent in February); food (1.5 percent vs 0.8 percent), of which fresh food (2.8 percent vs -1.3 percent) and other food (1.2 percent, the same as in February); and tobacco (16.6 percent vs 4.9 percent). On the other hand, energy inflation is set to slow to 4.9 percent from 5.2 percent in the previous month, while manufactured products prices are expected to fall by 0.4 percent, after a 0.1 percent rise in February.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to rise 1 percent, the steepest gain on record, after being flat in February. This increase should come from a rebound in manufactured products prices after the end of winter sales and from a sharp rise in tobacco prices. Services prices should accelerate, as well as those of food because of fresh products. On the other hand, energy prices should decline.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.7 percent from the previous year; and by 1.1 percent from the previous month.


Monday March 26 2018
French Q4 GDP Growth Revised Up to 0.7%
Insee l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy grew by 0.7 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2017, beating earlier estimates of 0.6 percent and following a 0.5 percent expansion in the previous quarter. Exports rose faster than initially thought.

In the fourth quarter, positive contribution to GDP growth came from net trade (0.7 percentage points), fixed investment (0.3 percentage points) and household spending (0.1 percentage points). Meanwhile, changes in inventories had a negative contribution of 0.4 percentage points.

Exports grew by 2.5 percent, faster than a 2.4 percent gain previously estimated and much stronger than a 1 percent increase in the preceding quarter; while imports rose by only 0.3 percent, after a 2.2 percent growth in the previous period.

Gross fixed capital formation rose 1.1 percent, compared with a second estimate of 1.2 percent and after a 0.9 percent rise in the September quarter. Meanwhile, household consumption increased by 0.2 percent (vs 0.5 percent in Q3) and government expenditure went up by 0.3 percent (vs 0.6 percent in Q3). 

Year-on-year, the GDP rose by 2.5 percent, following a 2.3 percent increase in the third quarter. It was the fastest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2011.

For full 2017, the economy expanded by 2 percent, its best performance since 2011, compared with 1.1 percent in 2016. 


Thursday March 15 2018
French February Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.2%
INSEE | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The French consumer price inflation stood at 1.2 percent year-on-year in February 2018, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and compared to a five-year high of 1.3 percent in the previous month.

Prices rose at a softer pace for: food (0.8 percent vs 1.2 percent in January), of which fresh food (-1.3 percent vs 1.8 percent) and other food (1.2 percent vs 1.1 percent); services (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent); and tobacco (4.9 percent vs 5.8 percent). On the other hand, upward pressure came from: energy (5.2 percent, the same as in January); and manufactured products (0.1 percent vs flat reading).

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, eased to 0.8 percent in February from an over two-year high of 0.9 percent in January.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged in February, after a 0.1 percent fall in January. Food prices edged down 0.1 percent, in the wake of fresh product prices. Those of manufactured products decreased again, but less markedly than in January (-0.3 percent vs -2.2 percent). Services prices slowed down for the second consecutive month (0.1 percent after 0.2 percent). Lastly, energy prices were stable, with the decrease in petroleum product prices being offset by a rise in gas and electricity prices.

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.3 percent from the previous year; and remain unchanged from the previous month.