Sugar Futures at Near 2-Month Low

US sugar futures eased to near 18 cents per pound, their lowest level since mid-September, pressured by prospects of increased supply from India. Recent data from the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) showed that the country produced 1.29 million tons of sugar between October 1 and November 5, almost four times the 320,000 tons recorded in the same period last season. Meanwhile, the ongoing weakness of the Brazilian real is enhancing the competitiveness of Brazilian exports, while lower oil prices are reducing the relative attractiveness of ethanol production. However, persistent El Niño-related rains in Brazil's Center-South have hampered sugarcane harvesting and milling. The weather phenomenon appears to be affecting the region earlier than usual, with excessive rainfall complicating production prospects and raising uncertainty over the start of the next harvest. Overall, global supply risks remain elevated, with a potential deficit looming in 2026/27.

US sugar futures extended their downward trend to trade around 18.5 cents per pound, the lowest since September, driven by a combination of a weaker Brazilian real, fund selling and lower oil prices. Higher output from India added to the pressure. According to a major industry body, sugar production in the world's second-largest producer jumped by 745% yoy to 845,000 in October, as mills in Maharashtra brought forward the start of the crushing season to build stocks ahead of the festive period. In Brazil, however, sugarcane crushing and sugar production fell during the first half of October, as persistent rainfall across the Center-South disrupted harvesting and delayed mill operations. The El Niño appears to be affecting the region earlier than expected, with excessive rainfall complicating production prospects and raising uncertainty over the start of the next harvest. The global supply outlook remains constrained by weather uncertainty, with a potential deficit looming in 2026/27.

Sugar decreased to 18.83 USd/Lbs, the lowest since October 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 9.01%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 28.75%.