Sugar Futures at Near 1-1/2-Year High

2026-09-02 08:58 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

US sugar futures traded above 18 cents per pound, holding close to their highest since April 2025, supported by prospects of tightening global supply.

El Niño-related climate woes and elevated energy prices amid the Middle East war also remained supportive.

The ISO indicated that the global sugar market is expected to shift from a 1.1 million-tonne surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27, with production estimated to decline 1% to 180.1 million tonnes.

Potential El Niño-related crop disruptions in India and Thailand were among the main risks to the outlook.

This comes in line with recent projections from several consultancies indicating a potential deficit in 2026/27.

European production is another source of concern for the market.

The European Union Sugar Market Observatory reported that the bloc's production in the 2026/27 crop year is expected to fall by 19%, to 13.4 million tons.

Meanwhile, India expects below-normal September rains after an already dry August.



News Stream
Sugar Futures at Near 1-1/2-Year High
US sugar futures traded above 18 cents per pound, holding close to their highest since April 2025, supported by prospects of tightening global supply. El Niño-related climate woes and elevated energy prices amid the Middle East war also remained supportive. The ISO indicated that the global sugar market is expected to shift from a 1.1 million-tonne surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27, with production estimated to decline 1% to 180.1 million tonnes. Potential El Niño-related crop disruptions in India and Thailand were among the main risks to the outlook. This comes in line with recent projections from several consultancies indicating a potential deficit in 2026/27. European production is another source of concern for the market. The European Union Sugar Market Observatory reported that the bloc's production in the 2026/27 crop year is expected to fall by 19%, to 13.4 million tons. Meanwhile, India expects below-normal September rains after an already dry August.
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Sugar Futures at Over 1-Year Highs
US sugar futures surged beyond 18 cents per pound, reaching the highest since April 2025, as traders amid persistent concerns over supply. Analysts have been revising their forecasts for a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, with the shortfall potentially widening further in 2027/28 as lower cane and beet plantings weigh on production. Climate risks in major producing regions and a potential shift toward ethanol production are adding to supply concerns, particularly in Brazil. Conab expects Brazilian sugar output to decline 2.9% to 42.89 million tonnes in 2026/27, while ethanol production is forecast to increase 9.7% to 29.98 billion litres. Meanwhile, the prospect of one of the strongest El Niño events in decades threatens production in key growing regions. Uncertainty over Indian purchases remains a key factor, while developments in the oil market could influence the balance between sugar and ethanol production.
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