Steel Climbs Toward 8-Month High

Steel rebar futures rose above CNY 3,150 per ton, nearing their highest level since August last year, supported by strong seasonal demand and ongoing restocking from end users. Chinese steelmakers have also raised domestic delivery prices across products, reflecting higher input costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Sentiment was further underpinned by projections from the World Steel Association, which expects global steel demand to increase 0.3% this year to 1.724 billion tons and rise 2.2% in the following year to 1.762 billion tons, signaling a gradual recovery in the sector. In addition, worldsteel reported that global crude steel production fell 4.2% to 159.9 million tons in March, with declines recorded across Asia and Oceania, the EU, the Middle East, Russia and other CIS + Ukraine, and South America.

Steel rebar futures traded at around CNY 3,130 per ton, near a three-week high as signs of firm seasonal demand and restocking by end users lifted prices. The strength in demand prompted China Steel Corp., the country’s largest steelmaker, to raise domestic prices for next month by NT$1,000 to NT$1,200 per ton, marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase. The outlook was further supported by projections from the World Steel Association, which expects global steel demand to grow 0.3% this year to 1.724 billion tons and rise 2.2% next year to 1.762 billion tons, pointing to a gradual recovery in the sector. An improving geopolitical backdrop also buoyed sentiment, with reports indicating Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. The conflict has disrupted trade flows, reducing metals shipments to the Gulf, a region that was China’s second-largest steel export destination last year.

Steel rebar futures climbed above CNY 3,080 per ton, rebounding from multi-week lows amid improving end-user demand, with Chinese mills ramping up production. Sentiment was also supported by optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict, with a longer-term ceasefire expected to revive Middle Eastern demand for Chinese steel. The conflict has disrupted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing metals shipments to the Gulf. The region was China’s second-largest steel export destination last year, accounting for about 16% of its record-high exports. Meanwhile, the European Union has moved to raise tariffs on imported steel to 50% in a bid to shield its domestic industry from a surge in low-cost Chinese supply. China’s steel exports continue to face growing headwinds from anti-dumping measures and rising protectionism abroad, alongside a prolonged property sector downturn and weaker construction activity at home.