Steel Firms Up as China as China Tackles Overcapacity

Steel rebar futures in China fell to CNY 3,100 per tonne after testing five-month highs of CNY 3,160 on January 29th, pressured by the recent decline in industrial metals as markets reconsidered speculative trades. Still, evidence that demand may have bottomed and efforts by Beijing to cap overcapacity maintained contracts above the flatline this year. China reportedly exempted major developers from submitting data that previously aimed to limit their access to leverage. Such a move would increase accessibility of loans and limit short-term liquidity risks for stressed constructors, improving the outlook for rebar-intensive projects. Meanwhile, the latest official data reflected a rebound in Chinese construction activity in December following four periods of contraction. Meanwhile, evidence from the World Steel Organization indicated a drop in global supply in 2025, led by cuts in China amid their anti-involution campaign.

Steel rebar futures in China rose to CNY 3,150 per tonne, the highest since the near five-month high of CNY 3,160 on January 7th as efforts to improve the financial balance of Chinese property developers stoked the outlook for ferrous metal demand. Reports from Chinese state outlets stated that multiple major property developers are now exempt from submitting "three red lines" indicators that were initially introduced to limit their access to financial leverage. Such a move would increase accessibility of loans and limit short-term liquidity risks for stressed constructors, improving the outlook for rebar-intensive projects. Meanwhile, the latest official data reflected a rebound in Chinese construction activity in December following four periods of contraction. Meanwhile, evidence from the World Steel Organization indicated a drop in global supply in 2025, led by cuts in China amid their anti-involution campaign.

Steel rebar futures steadied above CNY 3,100 per ton, remaining within a long-term sideways range as traders assessed the global supply and demand balance. The World Steel Association reported that global crude steel production declined 2% in the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting uneven conditions across major producing regions. China has continued to see falling steel output as downstream demand underperformed, while authorities intensified efforts to rein in overcapacity. In contrast, India’s steel production expanded by more than 10% over the first eleven months of last year, supported by government policies favoring domestic producers. The Indian government is also planning to boost steelmaking capacity by 50% to 300 million tons by 2030. Meanwhile, Chinese policymakers have signaled additional support measures this year to bolster economic growth, including initiatives aimed at stabilizing the country’s struggling property sector.