Soybeans Rise to 2-Month High

Soybean futures rose above $11.9 per bushel, hitting their highest level in eight-weeks as escalating tensions in the Middle East and improved US crop conditions lifted prices. The USDA confirmed 65% of the nation’s soybean crop was in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, up from 64% a week earlier, as the risk of hot and dry weather loomed. Hot and mostly dry weather was forecast for the western half of the US Midwest crop belt this week and potentially extending into next week, threatening crop yield potential. Additionally, the agency reported export inspections of US soybeans in the latest week at 418,592 metric tons, in line with trade expectations for 300,000 to 600,000 tons. Elsewhere, crude oil prices continued to rise after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports and Tehran launched strikes on US infrastructure in the region. Soybeans often track crude oil due to their use as a biofuel feedstock.

Soybean futures climbed above $12 per bushel, hitting nearly an eight-week high as renewed Chinese buying and higher US shipments outweighed larger production. The USDA confirmed another private export sale of 264,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, reinforcing optimism over export demand after Chinese importers resumed purchases in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the USDA's July WASDE report projected a record 2026/27 US soybean crop of 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from June. However, the agency left ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels, as a 30-million-bushel increase in export forecasts offset the larger harvest. The USDA also trimmed its outlook for global soybean ending stocks, signaling tighter world supplies than previously expected. Traders now monitored weather across key US growing regions, with localized heat and uneven rainfall expected to influence yield prospects during the critical pod-setting stage.

Soybean futures held their recent decline around $11.8 per bushel, remaining near a five-week high as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's closely watched supply-and-demand report. Due later today, the report will incorporate the agency's end-June acreage and grain stocks estimates. Ahead of the USDA's weekly export sales report, analysts expect net sales of old-crop US soybeans for the week ended July 2 to range from 50,000 to 500,000 metric tons, with new-crop sales seen between 150,000 and 500,000 tons. Soybean prices have risen more than 4% so far this week, supported by the USDA's confirmation of private sales of 472,000 tons of US soybeans to China. In addition, reports indicated that Chinese state grain trader COFCO purchased at least 10 cargoes, or roughly 600,000 tons, of US soybeans this week. Higher crude oil prices also lent support amid renewed US-Iran hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, as soybeans often track oil due to their use as a biofuel feedstock.