Soybean Retreats from 7-Week High

Soybean futures fell below $11.8 per bushel, easing from a seven-week high hit on May 4 as improved South American supply conditions offset stronger biofuel demand due to higher global energy prices. Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, shipped a record 16.75 million metric tons in April, up 9.7% from a year earlier and surpassing the previous high of 16.1 million tons set in April 2021. The country’s 2025/26 soybean crop is also projected to reach a record near 180 million tons, keeping prices under pressure. Elsewhere, US planting has progressed well, with seeding at 33% complete, 10 points ahead of average as drier US weather forecasts helped ease concerns that recent Midwest storms could slow or delay seeding in some areas. Meanwhile, renewed clashes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over prolonged energy supply disruptions, pushing global oil prices higher and reinforcing demand for biofuel feedstocks such as soybeans.

Soybean futures fell to $11.7 per bushel, reaching a two-week low as a sharp decline in global energy prices weighed on biofuel-driven demand. Reports that the US and Iran were closing in on an agreement to end the war sent oil prices plunging, which pressured the soy complex given soybeans’ role as a key biodiesel feedstock. Meanwhile, US planting has progressed well, with seeding at 33% complete, 10 points ahead of average as drier US weather forecasts helped ease concerns that recent Midwest storms could slow or delay seeding in some areas. Larger South American supply expectations also weighed, while export demand remained relatively steady, with USDA reporting net export sales of old-crop US soybeans at 258,100 metric tons for the week ended April 23, coming in toward the lower end of trade expectations of 200,000 to 600,000 tons. Traders now monitor US-China trade developments, with soybeans remaining a key focus in upcoming negotiations this month between Washington and Beijing.

Soybean futures traded around $12 per bushel, hovering near a seven-week high as higher energy prices supported biofuel demand, while Argentine harvest delays tightened global supply conditions. Argentina accounts for a substantial share of global supply, with domestic processing targets at 41 million tones, and continuous rainfall in Santa Fe province has severely disrupted fieldwork. Harvest activity stalled at just 10% versus a 60% seasonal average, establishing the current 50-percentage-point deficit as a severe logistical deviation. At the same time, US soybean planting has reached 12%, though widespread rainfall forecasts are expected to disrupt fieldwork in the near term. Meanwhile, elevated crude oil prices tied to disruptions in the key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, have boosted soybean oil demand for biodiesel production. Attention now turns to upcoming US-China trade talks this month, which could provide further direction for export demand expectations.