Soybean Futures Fall to 2-Week Low

2026-05-07 02:59 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

Soybean futures fell to $11.7 per bushel, reaching a two-week low as a sharp decline in global energy prices weighed on biofuel-driven demand.

Reports that the US and Iran were closing in on an agreement to end the war sent oil prices plunging, which pressured the soy complex given soybeans’ role as a key biodiesel feedstock.

Meanwhile, US planting has progressed well, with seeding at 33% complete, 10 points ahead of average as drier US weather forecasts helped ease concerns that recent Midwest storms could slow or delay seeding in some areas.

Larger South American supply expectations also weighed, while export demand remained relatively steady, with USDA reporting net export sales of old-crop US soybeans at 258,100 metric tons for the week ended April 23, coming in toward the lower end of trade expectations of 200,000 to 600,000 tons.

Traders now monitor US-China trade developments, with soybeans remaining a key focus in upcoming negotiations this month between Washington and Beijing.



News Stream
Soybean Futures Hit 2-Week Low
Soybean futures fell to below $11.8 per bushel, easing from recent multi-year highs to a two-week low as favorable US growing conditions and expectations of ample global supplies weighed on prices. Improved weather across key US crop regions boosted confidence in yield prospects, while recent rainfall helped alleviate drought concerns in parts of the Plains and reduced worries about planting delays in the Midwest. Markets now await the latest USDA crop ratings, with up to 70% of US soybean crops expected to be classified as good to excellent. Further downside came from weak demand in China, the world's largest soybean importer, alongside expectations of strong South American harvests. Large old-crop inventories in the US and profit-taking by funds after the recent rally also added to selling pressure. The decline came despite higher crude oil prices driven by renewed Middle East tensions, as optimism over crop prospects and subdued export demand outweighed support from energy markets.
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Soybeans Rise Toward 2-Year Highs
Soybean futures rose to above $11.9 per bushel, moving back toward two-year highs as supportive USDA projections and resilient global demand lifted prices. The agency’s first outlook for the 2026/27 season pointed to tighter-than-expected US supply conditions, forecast at 120.7 million tons versus market expectations of around 125 million tons. While global soybean production was projected at a record 441.5 million tons, consumption was seen holding near similar levels, helping ease concerns over a significant supply surplus. The USDA also projected Chinese soybean imports to rise to 114 million tons in 2026/27 from 112 million in the current season. Meanwhile, strong US planting progress reinforced expectations for another solid harvest, with 49% of the crop already planted, well ahead of the historical average of 36%. In South America, Brazil’s soybean harvest neared completion and production is expected to reach around 180 million tons, while exports continued at a record pace.
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Soybean Prices Extend Decline
Soybean futures fell below $11.90 per bushel, retreating further from recent two-year highs as uncertainty over global trade and geopolitical developments weighed on prices. A potential US–Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore flows of fuel and fertilizers critical for crop production is seen as supportive for agricultural supply, potentially boosting global grain output. However, crude oil prices rebounded on reports of fresh US strikes in southern Iran, reinforcing biofuel-related demand. Elsewhere, doubts over a US–China trade agreement weighed on prices, after Beijing did not confirm the Trump administration’s claim that it had committed to purchasing at least $17 billion in US agricultural products annually through 2028, alongside existing soybean pledges. China’s Ministry of Commerce said the two sides had only agreed on a “guiding target” to expand agricultural trade, without referencing the $17 billion figure.
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