Rice Hits 17-month High

Rice increased to 14.12 USD/cwt, the highest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 12.79%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 13.66%.

Rice futures extended gains above $14 per hundredweight, reaching their highest level since January 2025, as traders weighed mounting climate risks and renewed geopolitical tensions. Forecasts point to the development of a strong El Niño across key producing regions in Southeast Asia and parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with rice considered among the crops most vulnerable to adverse weather. Despite these concerns, global supplies remain ample following several strong harvests, led by India. India's stockpiles reached an all-time high of 68.4 million tonnes in June. Indonesia has also accumulated record reserves as farmers accelerate planting ahead of potential weather disruptions, and Thailand's inventories are at their highest level in a decade. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East have increased concerns over possible disruptions to commodity shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Rice futures traded around $13.5 per hundredweight, their highest since June 2025, amid climate risks and fresh geopolitical tensions. Analysts expect a very strong El Niño to develop in the coming months across key producing regions in Southeast Asia and parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with rice viewed as the most vulnerable crop. Still, global rice stocks remain abundant after successive strong harvests, led by top grower India. World milled rice inventories reached a record 196.2 million tonnes at the start of 2026, with India's stocks climbing to an all-time high of 68.4 million tonnes in June. Indonesia, a major rice importer, is holding record stockpiles as farmers speed up planting to mitigate El Niño risks. In Thailand, inventories are at their highest level in a decade, with fresh second-crop arrivals expected from late July. Meanwhile, ongoing Middle East tensions have raised the risk of disruptions to commodity shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.