Rice Futures at Over 1-1/2-Year Highs

Rice futures traded around $14 per hundredweight, hovering close to their highest level since January 2025, as traders looked beyond ample current supplies and focused on climate-related risks. Rice production is highly dependent on rainfall and temperature, making the crop particularly vulnerable to weather disruptions. Forecasters warn that a stronger El Niño and broader climate change are increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts, heatwaves, and erratic monsoon rains across Asia, raising the risk of lower yields in major producing countries such as India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. While improved monsoon rains in top grower India have accelerated planting and boosted exports, helping keep global supplies comfortable, uncertainty over weather conditions later in the growing season continues to support prices. Additional upside comes from the USDA's forecast for tighter US rice supplies and lower ending stocks.

Rice prices eased to around $13.5 per hundredweight, retreating from the 18-month high of $14.3 reached on July 22 as traders reassess the balance between weather risks and ample global supplies. Earlier gains were driven by concerns that El Niño and below-normal monsoon rainfall could reduce rice production across major Asian growers, particularly India, Vietnam and the Philippines. Although these risks remain, conditions in India have improved after a revival in monsoon rains accelerated rice planting and significantly narrowed the earlier sowing deficit. In addition, India's rice exports rose 5% in the first half of 2026, supported by strong non-basmati shipments and abundant domestic supplies, helping keep global markets well supplied. However, prices remain relatively elevated because weather uncertainty has not disappeared. Dry conditions could still affect yields later in the season, while the USDA projects tighter US rice supplies and lower ending stocks.

Rice increased to 14.12 USD/cwt, the highest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 12.79%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 13.66%.