Rice Eases from 18-Month High

2026-07-29 10:30 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Rice prices eased to around $13.7 per hundredweight, retreating from the 18-month high of $14.3 reached on July 22 as traders reassess the balance between weather risks and ample global supplies.

Earlier gains were driven by concerns that El Niño and below-normal monsoon rainfall could reduce rice production across major Asian growers, particularly India, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Although these risks remain, conditions in India have improved after a revival in monsoon rains accelerated rice planting and significantly narrowed the earlier sowing deficit.

In addition, India's rice exports rose 5% in the first half of 2026, supported by strong non-basmati shipments and abundant domestic supplies, helping keep global markets well supplied.

However, prices remain relatively elevated because weather uncertainty has not disappeared.

Dry conditions could still affect yields later in the season, while the USDA projects tighter US rice supplies and lower ending stocks.



News Stream
Rice Eases from 18-Month High
Rice prices eased to around $13.7 per hundredweight, retreating from the 18-month high of $14.3 reached on July 22 as traders reassess the balance between weather risks and ample global supplies. Earlier gains were driven by concerns that El Niño and below-normal monsoon rainfall could reduce rice production across major Asian growers, particularly India, Vietnam and the Philippines. Although these risks remain, conditions in India have improved after a revival in monsoon rains accelerated rice planting and significantly narrowed the earlier sowing deficit. In addition, India's rice exports rose 5% in the first half of 2026, supported by strong non-basmati shipments and abundant domestic supplies, helping keep global markets well supplied. However, prices remain relatively elevated because weather uncertainty has not disappeared. Dry conditions could still affect yields later in the season, while the USDA projects tighter US rice supplies and lower ending stocks.
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Rice futures extended gains above $14 per hundredweight, reaching their highest level since January 2025, as traders weighed mounting climate risks and renewed geopolitical tensions. Forecasts point to the development of a strong El Niño across key producing regions in Southeast Asia and parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with rice considered among the crops most vulnerable to adverse weather. Despite these concerns, global supplies remain ample following several strong harvests, led by India. India's stockpiles reached an all-time high of 68.4 million tonnes in June. Indonesia has also accumulated record reserves as farmers accelerate planting ahead of potential weather disruptions, and Thailand's inventories are at their highest level in a decade. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East have increased concerns over possible disruptions to commodity shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
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