Rice Hits 40-week High

Rice futures rose toward $13 per hundredweight, the highest since August 2025, amid ongoing concerns over tightening supply. The USDA’s latest outlook for the 2026/27 global crop points to lower production, record consumption, and tightening stocks. Global milled rice output is projected at 537.9 million tons, down 0.9% from 2025/26, while US rice supplies are estimated at 175.2 million hundredweight, around 15% lower year-on-year. On the demand side, global consumption is forecast to reach a record 541.3 million tons, up 0.7%. As a result, global rice stocks are expected to fall 1.8% to 192.7 million tons at the end of 2026/27. Supply pressures are being amplified by soaring fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict, while an emerging El Niño is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions and further strain key producing regions of Southeast Asia. Still, global rice stocks remain ample after years of strong output, with top exporter India holding a record 42 million tons.

Rice increased to 12.95 USD/cwt, the highest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 16.69%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.4%.

Rice futures rose more than 1% to $12 per hundredweight in mid-May, reaching its highest level since August 2025, as concerns over a tightening supply outlook supported prices. The USDA projects US rice supplies for the 2026–27 season at 175.2 million hundredweight, down about 15% from the previous year. The agency also raised its forecast for the average farm price to $13.50 per hundredweight, accelerating from $12.10 in the 2025–26 season. Elsewhere, farmers across Asia are reducing rice planting due to soaring fertilizer prices and higher fuel costs, which were exacerbated by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Moreover, the onset of El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to the region in the second half of the year, with signs of strain already emerging across parts of Southeast Asia. Despite these risks, global rice stocks remain ample after years of strong production, with top exporter India holding a record 42 million tons.