Gold Steady as Iran Talks Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold held near $4,200 an ounce on Tuesday, maintaining gains from the previous session as early signs of progress in ongoing peace talks between the US and Iran helped ease concerns about inflation. In a significant development, Washington issued Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, fueling expectations of a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative ways to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Gold has come under constant pressure since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February, as disruptions to energy flows through Hormuz drove oil prices higher and reinforced expectations that central banks raise interest rates to contain inflation.

Gold climbed toward $4,200 an ounce on Monday, recouping some losses from recent sessions as oil prices fell further following reports that the US and Iran had agreed on a roadmap toward a final peace deal within 60 days. The development helped ease market concerns after both sides recently exchanged threats over the conflict in Lebanon, with Tehran claiming it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, millions of barrels of crude continued to pass through the waterway over the weekend, while Persian Gulf producers prepared to increase output. Investors also looked ahead to this week’s release of the US PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged but maintained a more hawkish stance. Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now project at least one rate increase this year, with markets increasingly betting on a hike as early as September.

Gold fell below $4,150 an ounce on Monday, extending its recent decline as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns elevated following renewed tensions during the opening day of US-Iran talks. President Donald Trump threatened fresh military action if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel and warned Tehran against shutting the Strait of Hormuz again. At the same time, Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended negotiations in response to Trump’s remarks, although sources familiar with the discussions said talks were still underway. Gold was also weighed down by expectations of tighter monetary policy after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week while adopting a more hawkish tone. Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now anticipate at least one rate increase this year, with investors pricing in a potential hike as soon as September.