TTF Prices Extend Decline

European natural gas futures fell to around €53.4 per MWh on Tuesday, extending their retreat from an over three-year high, as traders weighed conflicting signals surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. President Trump announced a five-day delay to earlier threatened strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, citing '"productive discussions" to end war. Iran, however, has denied that any such talks are happening. Energy markets have remained highly volatile since the conflict began, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, restraining crude and LNG shipping flows. Recent Iranian strikes have also wiped out about 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, and repairs to damaged production facilities could take up to five years, according to QatarEnergy. With European gas storage significantly depleted over winter, the region may struggle to replenish inventories this summer if disruptions persist and competition for LNG cargoes from Asia intensifies.

European natural gas futures fell more than 6% to around €55 per MWh on Monday, extending losses for a second session after President Donald Trump ordered a five day pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure following talks aimed at ending the conflict. Trump said discussions had been productive and would continue through the week, raising hopes of de escalation. However, Iranian media denied any contact with Washington. Energy markets have been volatile since the war began, with the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked, disrupting key supply flows. European natural gas prices remain sharply higher, up more than 78% this month and near an over three-year high of €59.3 on March 20. Supply concerns persist after damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex reduced LNG capacity, while global output is expected to stay constrained. European storage levels are also lower than last year (28.5% full vs 33.8% a year earlier), adding to ongoing supply risks.

European natural gas futures rose more than 4% to above €61 per MWh on Monday, extending last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of US strikes on its power infrastructure, while Tehran threatened retaliatory attacks on critical energy sites if Washington acted. Last week, both sides carried out a series of strikes targeting energy infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG plant. Meanwhile, global LNG exports fell to a six-month low, underscoring tightening supply conditions. Shipments dropped roughly 20% to 1.1 million tons, driven mainly by declines from Qatar and, to a lesser extent, the UAE. European gas prices have now nearly doubled from pre-war levels, surging more than 90% so far this month.