TTF Prices Fall by Over 5%

European natural gas futures fell more than 5% to around €56 per MWh on Monday, extending losses for a second session after President Donald Trump ordered a five day pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure following talks aimed at ending the conflict. Trump said discussions had been productive and would continue through the week, raising hopes of de escalation. However, Iranian media denied any contact with Washington. Energy markets have been volatile since the war began, with the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked, disrupting key supply flows. European natural gas prices remain sharply higher, up more than 78% this month and near an over three-year high of €59.3 on March 20. Supply concerns persist after damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex reduced LNG capacity, while global output is expected to stay constrained. European storage levels are also lower than last year (28.5% full vs 33.8% a year earlier), adding to ongoing supply risks.

European natural gas futures rose more than 4% to above €61 per MWh on Monday, extending last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of US strikes on its power infrastructure, while Tehran threatened retaliatory attacks on critical energy sites if Washington acted. Last week, both sides carried out a series of strikes targeting energy infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG plant. Meanwhile, global LNG exports fell to a six-month low, underscoring tightening supply conditions. Shipments dropped roughly 20% to 1.1 million tons, driven mainly by declines from Qatar and, to a lesser extent, the UAE. European gas prices have now nearly doubled from pre-war levels, surging more than 90% so far this month.

European natural gas futures fell toward €59 per MWh on Friday, retreating from an over three-year high as the US and its allies moved to ease supply concerns. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US may soon lift sanctions on Iranian oil stranded on tankers and hinted at the possibility of more crude releases, providing temporary relief to energy markets. President Trump also ruled out troop deployments, while Israel pledged to hold off further strikes on key Iranian gas field. These developments follow Iran’s retaliatory strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world’s largest LNG export plant, after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field. Meanwhile, big European countries, Japan, and Canada offered to participate in efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. Despite the pullback, European gas prices remain nearly double pre-war levels, having surged more than 90% so far this month.