TTF Prices Rise Over 4%

European natural gas futures rose more than 4% to above €61 per MWh on Monday, extending last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of US strikes on its power infrastructure, while Tehran threatened retaliatory attacks on critical energy sites if Washington acted. Last week, both sides carried out a series of strikes targeting energy infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG plant. Meanwhile, global LNG exports fell to a six-month low, underscoring tightening supply conditions. Shipments dropped roughly 20% to 1.1 million tons, driven mainly by declines from Qatar and, to a lesser extent, the UAE. European gas prices have now nearly doubled from pre-war levels, surging more than 90% so far this month.

European natural gas futures fell toward €59 per MWh on Friday, retreating from an over three-year high as the US and its allies moved to ease supply concerns. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US may soon lift sanctions on Iranian oil stranded on tankers and hinted at the possibility of more crude releases, providing temporary relief to energy markets. President Trump also ruled out troop deployments, while Israel pledged to hold off further strikes on key Iranian gas field. These developments follow Iran’s retaliatory strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world’s largest LNG export plant, after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field. Meanwhile, big European countries, Japan, and Canada offered to participate in efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. Despite the pullback, European gas prices remain nearly double pre-war levels, having surged more than 90% so far this month.

European natural gas futures soared about 14% to above €62.5 per MWh on Thursday, reaching their highest levels in over three years after Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure across the Middle East, intensifying supply concerns. Iran carried out missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, a complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant, marking one of several energy assets Tehran pledged to target following an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field. Abu Dhabi also suspended operations at its Habshan gas facilities after intercepted missiles caused falling debris, while LNG assets in Bahrain were reportedly hit by heavy missile strikes. Around 20% of global LNG flows typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely shut since the Iran war began. The disruption comes just ahead of the region’s stockpiling season, with storage levels already about 15 percentage points below the five-year average after a colder winter.