US Egg Prices Continue to Fall

US egg prices slipped past $1.2 per dozen retreating from three-month highs seen March 23rd, as the completion of the Easter and Passover procurement cycle abruptly curtailed seasonal demand and exposed a robust recovery in domestic supply. While prices surged earlier in the month due to holiday baking and traditional egg hunts, the market now faces a significant inventory overhang following a projected increase in 2026 production and a national laying flock that reached 308 million hens. This expansion in capacity, driven by aggressive restocking and a notable rise in hatchery supply, has effectively neutralized the impact of isolated avian influenza outbreaks in Wisconsin that affected roughly 3 million birds earlier this year. Furthermore, demand remains structurally fragile as a shift toward processed egg alternatives continues to incentivize industrial and foodservice buyers to favor liquid products over high-cost shell eggs.

US egg prices slipped back toward $0.5 per dozen after rebounding from multi-year lows, as a severe oversupply from aggressive flock restocking and a surge in imports collided with a contraction in consumer demand. Following avian flu outbreaks in 2024 and 2025 that decimated 70 million hens, producers overcompensated by expanding layer inventories to 309 million by January. This glut was magnified by the administration’s decision to increase egg imports to 122.5 million dozen in 2025, four times the previous year’s volume, to combat grocery inflation. Demand-side pressure persists as consumers who pivoted to alternatives during the $6 price peak last March have yet to fully resume historical buying patterns. While a new February outbreak in Pennsylvania affecting 7 million birds threatens a supply reversal, the market remains anchored by this massive inventory overhang.

US egg prices slipped back below $0.92 per dozen after rebounding from multi-year lows, remaining more than 80% below mid 2025 peaks and returning to pre bird flu levels. The decline reflects a rapid normalization of supply after the HPAI driven contraction, alongside rising inventories and softer demand following the holiday surge. Producers rebuilt layer flocks aggressively after last year’s losses, lifting output and pushing inventories toward annual highs, with USDA data showing production ending 2025 above the prior year. At the same time, post holiday consumption cooled and retail feature activity faded. While isolated bird flu cases and logistical frictions resurfaced earlier in the year, they were far smaller than prior shocks and failed to derail the broader supply recovery, particularly as imports helped offset localized gaps. Consistent with these dynamics, the USDA now expects lower egg prices into 2026 as supply growth continues to outpace demand.