US Egg Prices Drop Toward Multi-Year Lows

US egg prices slipped back toward $0.5 per dozen after rebounding from multi-year lows, as a severe oversupply from aggressive flock restocking and a surge in imports collided with a contraction in consumer demand. Following avian flu outbreaks in 2024 and 2025 that decimated 70 million hens, producers overcompensated by expanding layer inventories to 309 million by January. This glut was magnified by the administration’s decision to increase egg imports to 122.5 million dozen in 2025, four times the previous year’s volume, to combat grocery inflation. Demand-side pressure persists as consumers who pivoted to alternatives during the $6 price peak last March have yet to fully resume historical buying patterns. While a new February outbreak in Pennsylvania affecting 7 million birds threatens a supply reversal, the market remains anchored by this massive inventory overhang.

US egg prices slipped back below $0.92 per dozen after rebounding from multi-year lows, remaining more than 80% below mid 2025 peaks and returning to pre bird flu levels. The decline reflects a rapid normalization of supply after the HPAI driven contraction, alongside rising inventories and softer demand following the holiday surge. Producers rebuilt layer flocks aggressively after last year’s losses, lifting output and pushing inventories toward annual highs, with USDA data showing production ending 2025 above the prior year. At the same time, post holiday consumption cooled and retail feature activity faded. While isolated bird flu cases and logistical frictions resurfaced earlier in the year, they were far smaller than prior shocks and failed to derail the broader supply recovery, particularly as imports helped offset localized gaps. Consistent with these dynamics, the USDA now expects lower egg prices into 2026 as supply growth continues to outpace demand.

US egg prices jumped back above $1.20 per dozen from a multi year low near $0.33 on January 13 as a rapid tightening in physical supply met a short lived demand shock. On the supply side, renewed outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza triggered fresh culling of laying hens across several major US producing states, cutting flock sizes and reducing wholesale availability just as inventories were starting to rebuild. That domestic shortfall was compounded by new bird flu cases in Europe, especially in the Netherlands’ most egg intensive region, which disrupted export flows and pushed foreign buyers into the spot market, tightening global availability. Elevated feed costs, led by corn and soybean meal, have also lifted marginal production costs, slowing the pace of output recovery. On the demand side, a severe Arctic cold snap in mid January boosted near term retail buying through increased home cooking, baking, and precautionary restocking, amplifying the price response.