Crude Oil Swings on Monday

Crude oil fluctuated around $82 a barrel on Monday as traders weighed continued geopolitical tensions against signs that more oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz than initially expected. Gulf producers appear to be maintaining substantial shipments from the Persian Gulf despite the ongoing conflict, helping to limit concerns over an immediate supply shock. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts between Iran and the US remain stalled. President Donald Trump reportedly threatened military action against Oman if it interferes with the US blockade of Iranian vessels, although oil prices showed little reaction to the statement. At the same time, Iran and Oman appeared to be making progress toward an agreement on managing traffic through Hormuz, but the US has not been involved in those discussions. Washington is unlikely to support any arrangement that does not guarantee unrestricted passage through the strategic shipping route.

Crude oil held above $82 a barrel on Monday, as investors assessed the uncertain outlook for the US-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions. Renewed fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns that tensions could persist, while stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran limited hopes for a swift resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had not decided whether to resume talks with the US, while President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also slowed significantly over the weekend following attacks on tankers. Data showed only five commodity vessels transited the waterway on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 during the previous weekend. Despite the heightened risks, the absence of major supply outages limited further gains in oil prices.

Crude oil slipped below $82 per barrel on Monday, but held most of last week’s gains as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping markets wary of further supply disruptions. Over the weekend, Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon that killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander. President Donald Trump is also preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender, as pressure mounts on his administration to bring the military campaign to an end. The interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is set to formally expire later today, while negotiations to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern producers are covertly moving millions of barrels of crude through the waterway, helping to limit further price gains. Iran and Oman also appear to be moving closer to an agreement on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, although the US is not participating in the talks.