Crude Oil Fluctuates on Monday

Crude oil held above $82 a barrel on Monday, as investors assessed the uncertain outlook for the US-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions. Renewed fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns that tensions could persist, while stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran limited hopes for a swift resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had not decided whether to resume talks with the US, while President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also slowed significantly over the weekend following attacks on tankers. Data showed only five commodity vessels transited the waterway on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 during the previous weekend. Despite the heightened risks, the absence of major supply outages limited further gains in oil prices.

Crude oil slipped below $82 per barrel on Monday, but held most of last week’s gains as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping markets wary of further supply disruptions. Over the weekend, Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon that killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander. President Donald Trump is also preparing new economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to surrender, as pressure mounts on his administration to bring the military campaign to an end. The interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is set to formally expire later today, while negotiations to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern producers are covertly moving millions of barrels of crude through the waterway, helping to limit further price gains. Iran and Oman also appear to be moving closer to an agreement on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, although the US is not participating in the talks.

Crude rose above $82 a barrel on Friday, extending gains to more than 5% this week as the US increased economic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would impose unprecedented economic measures while maintaining its naval blockade of Iranian ports, with further announcements expected next week. The International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall in 2026 in five years. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have yet to reach an agreement on reopening Hormuz, despite earlier optimism that a deal was close. US officials said American forces are increasing their ability to escort vessels through the strait, although shipping remains risky, with some tankers switching off transponders. In the Red Sea, Iran-backed Houthi militants also targeted Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. Meanwhile, additional Middle Eastern crude is expected to reach the US, offering some relief to low inventories.