Corn Futures Ease as US-China Trade Deal Uncertainty Lingers

Corn futures fell to around $4.70 per bushel, pulling back from recent one-year highs, amid doubts over China’s commitment to US agricultural purchases. While the Trump administration stated that Beijing had agreed to buy at least $17 billion in US agricultural products annually through 2028, following Trump-Xi talks in Beijing, China’s Ministry of Commerce clarified on Wednesday that the two nations had only set a “guiding target” to expand trade, without confirming the $17 billion figure. The potential deal was seen as a positive for corn futures, as it could complement the existing soybean agreement and extend to other commodities. USDA data suggests that a resumption of Chinese corn imports would mark a shift after nearly two years of subdued buying. However, farmers remain vulnerable to recent surges in fuel and fertilizer costs tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which continue to impact production and pricing.

Corn futures slipped to around $4.70 per bushel, retreating from a recent surge after long-awaited details emerged regarding China’s commitment to purchase US agricultural goods. China pledged to buy at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028 after high-level talks in Beijing between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping aimed at easing trade tensions. The announcement is seen as supportive for corn futures, as the purchases would add to an existing soybean agreement and could potentially extend into other agricultural commodities. According to US Department of Agriculture data, a return of Chinese corn imports would represent a shift from roughly two years of subdued buying activity. However, farmers remain sensitive to recent spikes in fuel and fertilizer prices linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to influence crop production and pricing dynamics.

Corn futures rose above $4.70 per bushel, recovering some of the prior session’s losses, as the US signaled potential large-scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China is expected to make “double-digit billion” annual purchases of US farm products over the next three years, reinforcing expectations of stronger export demand. The corn market had previously fallen nearly 3% from a one-year peak, after the first day of high-stakes talks between President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping failed to deliver any concrete details, including volumes, timing, and product breakdown. Meanwhile, the latest USDA outlook signaled ample US corn supplies extending into 2027, projecting production at around 16 billion bushels, still near record levels. Ending stocks were forecast at roughly 1.96 billion bushels, remaining comfortable despite a modest decline, while exports are expected to ease to about 3.15 billion bushels.