Corn Rises on US-China Trade Optimism

Corn futures rose above $4.70 per bushel, recovering some of the prior session’s losses, as the US signaled potential large-scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China is expected to make “double-digit billion” annual purchases of US farm products over the next three years, reinforcing expectations of stronger export demand. The corn market had previously fallen nearly 3% from a one-year peak, after the first day of high-stakes talks between President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping failed to deliver any concrete details, including volumes, timing, and product breakdown. Meanwhile, the latest USDA outlook signaled ample US corn supplies extending into 2027, projecting production at around 16 billion bushels, still near record levels. Ending stocks were forecast at roughly 1.96 billion bushels, remaining comfortable despite a modest decline, while exports are expected to ease to about 3.15 billion bushels.

Corn decreased to 442.00 USd/BU, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Corn gained 4.93%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 4.34%.

Corn futures rose to around $4.60 per bushel, hitting their highest since April 2025, even as USDA signaled ample supplies into 2027. The agency projected corn production at 15.995 billion bushels, down 6% from a record harvest but still the second-largest on record, while ending stocks were forecast at 1.957 billion bushels, down 185 million year-on-year but slightly above market expectations. Exports are expected to ease to 3.15 billion bushels, while domestic use remains broadly steady. Even with ample overall supply, USDA projections reinforced a gradually tightening longer-term outlook alongside strong biofuel demand tied to elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions. The season-average farm price was also lifted to $4.40 per bushel, offering some relief to producers after several years of weak margins, high input costs, and trade disruptions. Corn has already risen about 9% year-to-date, with further gains potentially helping lift cash prices closer to breakeven levels.