Corn Struggles to Rebound

Corn futures hovered around $4.30 per bushel, struggling to build on their late January rebound after the February WASDE confirmed that demand is improving but still insufficient to materially tighten supply. USDA lifted US exports by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion as January sales and inspections remained firm, trimming ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels, yet that carryout still implies a comfortable supply buffer relative to consumption. Globally, total coarse grain production remains near 1.59 billion tons, while global corn stocks, though reduced by 1.9 million tons to 289 million, remain ample as higher inventories in Ukraine and Iran offset tighter balances elsewhere. As a result, incremental gains in export and feed demand are being absorbed by sheer supply rather than translating into sustained price pressure. Expectations of another large Brazilian crop and only marginal supply adjustments abroad further point to intense export competition.

Corn futures traded below $4.30 per bushel, failing to extend their late-January rebound as a surge in near-term supply from South America coincided with slower-than-needed export shipments to absorb that availability. In the southern hemisphere, favourable weather and a fast-moving Brazilian harvest have lifted immediate supply and pressured local wholesale values, while expectations of larger 2026/27 plantings have eased concerns about a tighter global balance. Meanwhile, commercial demand has offered only limited support, as US export sales and inspections have been solid at times this month but actual shipment flows have lagged the pace required to offset the influx of Brazilian corn, allowing export strength to cushion prices without reversing the broader pullback.

Corn futures traded around $4.20 per bushel, staying close to a three-month low of $4.17 reached on January 13, as markets remained weighed down by oversupply concerns and sluggish demand. The USDA reported that farmers and grain companies held record corn inventories as of December 1, following a record 17 billion-bushel harvest, larger than previously estimated and up 14% from 2024 levels. Looking ahead, the USDA has raised its forecast for the US corn harvest in marketing year 2025/26 by 6.81 million tonnes to a record 432.34 million tonnes. The figure exceeds the previous 2023 record by 40 million tonnes and last year’s output by 54 million tonnes, adding further pressure to prices. While projected US corn consumption was also revised higher by 2.3 million tonnes to 334.5 million tonnes, driven by increased feed demand, analysts had not anticipated such a sharp rise, raising the likelihood that part of the additional supply will ultimately flow into ending stocks.