Corn Eases From 2-Week High

Corn futures traded below $4.30 per bushel, failing to extend their late-January rebound as a surge in near-term supply from South America coincided with slower-than-needed export shipments to absorb that availability. In the southern hemisphere, favourable weather and a fast-moving Brazilian harvest have lifted immediate supply and pressured local wholesale values, while expectations of larger 2026/27 plantings have eased concerns about a tighter global balance. Meanwhile, commercial demand has offered only limited support, as US export sales and inspections have been solid at times this month but actual shipment flows have lagged the pace required to offset the influx of Brazilian corn, allowing export strength to cushion prices without reversing the broader pullback.

Corn futures traded around $4.20 per bushel, staying close to a three-month low of $4.17 reached on January 13, as markets remained weighed down by oversupply concerns and sluggish demand. The USDA reported that farmers and grain companies held record corn inventories as of December 1, following a record 17 billion-bushel harvest, larger than previously estimated and up 14% from 2024 levels. Looking ahead, the USDA has raised its forecast for the US corn harvest in marketing year 2025/26 by 6.81 million tonnes to a record 432.34 million tonnes. The figure exceeds the previous 2023 record by 40 million tonnes and last year’s output by 54 million tonnes, adding further pressure to prices. While projected US corn consumption was also revised higher by 2.3 million tonnes to 334.5 million tonnes, driven by increased feed demand, analysts had not anticipated such a sharp rise, raising the likelihood that part of the additional supply will ultimately flow into ending stocks.

Corn futures plunged below $4.30 per bushel, the lowest since late November, as the January WASDE shifted the balance back toward overwhelming supply while demand growth remained insufficient to absorb it. USDA raised 2025/26 US production to a record 17.0 billion bushels, driven by a higher 186.5 bpa yield and a larger harvested area, lifting ending stocks to 2.2 billion bushels. Although feed and residual use was revised higher, demand gains lagged far behind the surge in supply, reinforcing the need for lower prices to clear inventories. Globally, the report also pushed world corn stocks up to 290.9 million tons, largely reflecting higher Chinese stocks, which reduced urgency for import demand elsewhere. At the same time, earlier weather concerns in Argentina have eased as rainfall prospects improve, softening near term South American supply risk and restoring confidence in export availability later in the season.