Coffee Hits 4-week High

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.4 per pound, close to their highest since July 9, supported by tight inventories and persistent supply concerns. ICE-certified Arabica stocks continued to decline and are now near a 26-year low, leaving the market vulnerable to potential supply shocks. Brazil is heading for a record harvest of around 75 million bags, although harvesting has progressed more slowly than a year ago. Drier conditions are now allowing producers to accelerate fieldwork. However, the quality of part of the new Arabica crop remains a concern, with reports pointing to weaker cup quality and smaller bean sizes, which could limit the pace at which inventories are replenished. Meanwhile, El Niño remains an upside risk, as the weather pattern could delay rainfall during the September-October flowering period, threatening Brazil's next crop. The US Climate Prediction Center predicts the current El Niño to be among the strongest in more than 75 years.

Coffee increased to 342.80 USd/Lbs, the highest since July 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 5.51%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.84%.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.3 per pound, hovering near their highest since late July, supported by the slower pace of the Brazilian harvest and concerns about supply. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%. In the meantime, latest data showed ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 231,445 bags. Attention is already shifting to the 2027/28 harvest, but uncertainty over the current crop and ongoing weather risks are keeping the market cautious, with new deals remaining scarce. Meanwhile, traders continued to assess the impact of earthquake-related disruptions to Colombian coffee exports, with shipments through the main port Buenaventura only partially resumed and remaining limited.