Cocoa Futures Ease From 8-Month Highs

Cocoa futures traded around $5,700 per tonne, down from an eight-month high of $6,455 hit on July 9, as profit-taking and long liquidation followed signs of ample cocoa supplies from the top grower Ivory Coast. Data released on July 10 showed farmers shipped 2.07 MMT of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025, and July 5, 2026, up 21% from a year earlier. Moreover, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories rose further to a nearly two-year high of 3,151,790 bags. However, concerns over the 2026/27 crop persisted, with Ivory Coast's main harvest expected to decline by more than 10% due to excessive El Niño-linked rainfall and poor crop management. Local farmers said soil moisture remained too high and more sunshine was needed to limit crop disease and support the September-to-February main crop after heavy rains flooded plantations in some regions in late June. They added that flowering will continue through September, with the harvest depending on how many flowers develop into pods.

Cocoa increased to 5360.00 USD/T, the highest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 39.1%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 35.02%.

Cocoa futures extended their rally above $6,400 per tonne, the highest since November 2025, amid persistent jitters over the upcoming West African crop. The market remained supported by expectations of lower production in top grower Ivory Coast during the 2026/27 season. Several producing regions reported fewer fruits than expected for this time of year, while the mid-crop and early development of the main crop are lagging previous seasons. Some analysts forecast output at 1.7-1.8 million metric tons, down from about 2.2 million in 2025/26, after heavy rainfall flooded plantations and disrupted harvesting and transport. Excessive moisture also can promote fungal diseases and pests during the critical cocoa pod formation and ripening stages. Heavy rains also hit Ghana. Another risk is the possibility of El Niño strengthening in the second half of the year, which could intensify the Harmattan, a hot, dry West African wind that re duces soil moisture and causes water stress in plants.