Cocoa Hits 24-week High

Cocoa increased to 5360.00 USD/T, the highest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 39.1%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 35.02%.

Cocoa futures extended their rally above $5,900 per tonne, a new high since January, amid persistent jitters over the upcoming West African cocoa crop. The market remained supported by expectations of lower production in top grower Ivory Coast during the 2026/27 season. Several producing regions are reporting fewer fruits than expected for this time of year, while the mid-crop and early development of the main crop are lagging previous seasons. Some analysts forecast output at 1.7-1.8 million metric tons, down from about 2.2 million in 2025/26, after heavy rainfall flooded plantations and disrupted harvesting and transport. Excessive moisture also can promote fungal diseases and pests during the critical cocoa pod formation and ripening stages. Heavy rains also hit Ghana. Another risk is the possibility of El Niño strengthening in the second half of the year, which could intensify the Harmattan, a hot, dry West African wind that re duces soil moisture and causes water stress in plants.

Cocoa futures eased toward $4,900 per tonne, down from a five-month peak of nearly 5,250 per tonne hit on June 25, as stronger supply flows tempered concerns over the upcoming West African cocoa crop. Latest data showed cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 1.910 million metric tons as of June 28 since the season began on October 1, up 18.4% from the same period last season. Also, Nigerian cocoa exports rose +28% y/y to 18,034 MT in May. But even with a projected surplus in 2026, cocoa prices remain volatile and sensitive to weather factors. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have disrupted cocoa harvesting and transport by flooding roads and limiting access to farms and ports. With June rainfall already nearing monthly averages, excessive moisture is also raising the risk of brown rot disease, potentially curbing yields. Furthermore, the return of El Niño has once again placed cocoa among the agricultural commodities most vulnerable to climate shocks.