Cocoa Futures at Over 5-Month High

2026-07-02 14:08 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Cocoa futures traded around 5,000 per tonne, holding close to January's levels, amid persistent jitters over the upcoming West African cocoa crop.

The market remained supported by expectations of lower production in top grower Ivory Coast during the 2026/27 season.

Several producing regions are reporting fewer fruits than expected for this time of year, while the mid-crop and early development of the main crop are lagging previous seasons.

Some analysts forecast output at 1.7-1.8 million metric tons, down from about 2.2 million in 2025/26, after heavy rainfall flooded plantations and disrupted harvesting and transport.

Excessive moisture also can promote fungal diseases and pests during the critical cocoa pod formation and ripening stages.

Heavy rains also hit Ghana.

Another risk is the possibility of El Niño strengthening in the second half of the year, which could intensify the Harmattan, a hot, dry West African wind that re duces soil moisture and causes water stress in plants.



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Cocoa Futures at Over 5-Month High
Cocoa futures traded around 5,000 per tonne, holding close to January's levels, amid persistent jitters over the upcoming West African cocoa crop. The market remained supported by expectations of lower production in top grower Ivory Coast during the 2026/27 season. Several producing regions are reporting fewer fruits than expected for this time of year, while the mid-crop and early development of the main crop are lagging previous seasons. Some analysts forecast output at 1.7-1.8 million metric tons, down from about 2.2 million in 2025/26, after heavy rainfall flooded plantations and disrupted harvesting and transport. Excessive moisture also can promote fungal diseases and pests during the critical cocoa pod formation and ripening stages. Heavy rains also hit Ghana. Another risk is the possibility of El Niño strengthening in the second half of the year, which could intensify the Harmattan, a hot, dry West African wind that re duces soil moisture and causes water stress in plants.
2026-07-02
Cocoa Futures Edge Lower
Cocoa futures eased toward $4,900 per tonne, down from a five-month peak of nearly 5,250 per tonne hit on June 25, as stronger supply flows tempered concerns over the upcoming West African cocoa crop. Latest data showed cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 1.910 million metric tons as of June 28 since the season began on October 1, up 18.4% from the same period last season. Also, Nigerian cocoa exports rose +28% y/y to 18,034 MT in May. But even with a projected surplus in 2026, cocoa prices remain volatile and sensitive to weather factors. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have disrupted cocoa harvesting and transport by flooding roads and limiting access to farms and ports. With June rainfall already nearing monthly averages, excessive moisture is also raising the risk of brown rot disease, potentially curbing yields. Furthermore, the return of El Niño has once again placed cocoa among the agricultural commodities most vulnerable to climate shocks.
2026-06-29
Cocoa Futures at Over 5-Month High
Cocoa futures traded around $5,050 per tonne, close to the highest since January, driven by short covering and weather-related supply concerns. Traders continued to monitor the end of the mid-season harvest in West Africa, while also eyeing the September main crop amid mounting risks from El Niño. Farmers in the world's largest producer, the Ivory Coast, have expressed concerns that recent above-average rainfall in the main producing areas could lead to flooding, higher disease incidence, and reduced cocoa bean quality during the final stretch of the mid-crop harvest. While rainfall is essential for crop development, excessive moisture can encourage fungal diseases and pest activity, particularly during the critical stage of cocoa pod formation and ripening. Another factor weighing was the drop in ICE-certified stocks at US ports, which fell by 3,828 bags to 2,914,908, suggesting tighter supply conditions.
2026-06-23