Cocoa Futures at Over 1-Month High

Cocoa futures traded above $4,600 per tonne, hovering near the highest since May 11, driven by short covering and weather-related supply concerns. Traders continued to monitor the end of the mid-season harvest in West Africa, while also eyeing the September main crop amid mounting risks from El Niño. Farmers in top grower Ivory Coast have expressed concerns that recent above-average rainfall in main producing areas could lead to flooding, higher disease incidence, and reduced cocoa bean quality during the final stretch of the mid-crop harvest. While rainfall is essential for crop development, excessive moisture can encourage fungal diseases and pest activity, particularly during the critical stage of cocoa pod formation and ripening. Another factor weighing was the drop in ICE-certified stocks at US ports, which fell by 3,828 bags to 2,914,908, suggesting tighter supply.

Cocoa increased to 4338.00 USD/T, the highest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 14.1%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 55%.

Cocoa futures traded above $4,300 per tonne, near the highest since mid-May, as traders focused on increasing risks from El Niño affecting upcoming harvests. Dealers said the market has been supported by indications that the 2026/27 main crops in the key producing region of West Africa may be significantly below this season. StoneX recently reduced its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season to 149,000 tons, compared to the 267,000 tons projected in January. The revision was largely due to growing concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on cocoa production in West Africa. At the same time, it also cut the 2025/26 surplus estimate to 247,000 tons from a previous 287,000 tons. A similar trend was seen in ICCO’s projections, which at the end of May revised its 2024/25 surplus estimate down from 75,000 tons to 48,000 tons. .Meanwhile, volumes stored in US ports grew by another 5,678 bags, reaching 2,923,471 bags.